On the global stage, Jacinda Ardern was a climate champion, but victories were hard to come by at home

Standing before a crowd of more than 2,000 people shortly before her election as prime minister in 2017, Jacinda Ardern declared climate change her nuclear-free moment of generations.

Referring to New Zealand’s decision in the 1980s to shun atomic power and ban nuclear-powered ships from its waterways in its relationship with the United States since the statement set the stage for how seriously Ardern intended to take the crisis climate while in office. .

[This statement] was stunning, said Bronwyn Hayward, a professor of political science at the University of Canterbury and a lead author of the IPCC. Nuclear free New Zealand has been important to us. It is a kind of national identity.

Now, after five and a half years, Ardern has resigned citing exhaustion after leading her country through a 2019 terrorist attack and the Covid-19 pandemic. But she leaves a legacy as a different kind of national leader, with a vocal concern about climate change at a time when many others dismissed or ignored the challenge of global warming.

After her election in 2017, Ardern quickly became known around the world for her charisma and clear communication. Her strong stance on the need to prioritize climate action came at a time when the world’s superpowers lacked leadership on the issue. But her departure comes as countries around the world, including New Zealand, are scrambling to take significant action to reduce emissions in time to meet their targets.

Ardern has been one of New Zealand’s most successful prime ministers ever, former prime minister Geoffrey Palmer said in an interview. It brought a new political style. She is charismatic. She is articulate, smart, compassionate and empathetic, and these things resonate with audiences.

Ardern’s election in 2017 followed President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, citing unfair economic burdens, and his administration rejecting dozens of policies that protect the environment. Brazil was a year away from electing President Jair Bolsanaro, known for advancing Amazon deforestation and dismantling government agencies that fight climate change and protect indigenous peoples. Much of her tenure coincided with that of former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who once brought a lump of coal to the floor of the House of Representatives and whose Conservative government repeatedly rejected ambitious national climate policies and refused to strengthen its 2030 target in line with global efforts.

According to Palmer, leaders had consistently viewed dangerous climate change as too difficult to deal with. But as a young, female leader with a vocal concern about the climate, Ardern presented a welcome contrast.

If you’re not positive about politics, you never get anything done, Palmer said. [Ardern] brought a new style well suited to the existing problems facing the world.

New Zealand has succeeded where other nations have failed

The attention Ardern attracted on the world stage was unusual for a country the size of New Zealand. With a population of only 5 million, overall emissions are low. Domestic progress on climate mitigation is not perceived as a solution to the global problem in the same way that significant action by the US or China might be, said Alice Hill, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

However, Hill pointed to several policies introduced under Ardern’s government that had impacts around the world.

The country’s first National Adaptation Plan, a strategy to help communities prepare for the dangerous effects of climate change, was published in 2022. It was remarkable for its inclusion of the managed withdrawal of planned movement of structures and communities away from the rising seas, she said. [The U.S.] there is no national adaptation plan, let alone a managed withdrawal policy.

Similarly, New Zealand made waves as the first country to mandate disclosure of climate-related financial risks in certain sectors. While the rest of the world was struggling if [to do it]New Zealand just mandated it, she said.

Ardern’s bold climate leadership also made global headlines when her government decided to freeze new offshore oil and gas exploration permits just six months after taking office, said Amanda Larsson, who heads campaigns for the wing. of New Zealand-based Greenpeace Aotearoathe organizations.

The Biden administration, by contrast, backed away from an initial promise to stop drilling allow rentals in the Gulf of Mexico and south coast of Alaska.

New Zealand, which has exclusive rights over a marine area that spans roughly 15 times its land thanks to the country’s long coastline and lack of close neighbors, was an early country to take such an anti-industry stance of fossil fuels.

That set a tone early in her tenure as someone who was willing to stand up to big polluters and do what was right for the climate, Larsson said.

Loudness on the global stage fails to cut emissions at home

But attitudes on the world stage don’t always reflect what’s playing out at home, Hill acknowledged. She was recognized as someone who was not afraid to take on the politically charged issue of climate change. But if the implementation really doesn’t go as planned, that piece of news won’t be picked up overseas, she said.

So was Ardern really a progressive climate leader? Did her inspiring and optimistic rhetoric translate into policies at home that actually moved the needle on climate?

According to Hayward, at the University of Canterbury, there was a disconnect.

Most New Zealanders and those who follow environmental policy know that New Zealand is really struggling with its environmental policies and its climate policies, she said.

Larsson agreed. From a domestic perspective, the rhetoric on the global stage has not been matched by action to actually reduce emissions in New Zealand. She has presided over several government terms in which emissions have increased.

Recently, many in the international climate community have watched closely as New Zealand worked towards a framework that would regulate agricultural emissions.

New Zealand has a unique emissions profile among developed countries, with agriculture accounting for half of gross domestic production of greenhouse gases. In the US, by contrast, agriculture was alone 11 percent emissions in 2020.

The challenge of regulating these emissions was repeatedly raised by previous governments, said Leo Mercer, a policy analyst at the UK-based Grantham Institute. When Ardern’s coalition government was formed, they set themselves the impossible task of tackling the issue by working with industry.

When you actually start to partner with the sector to design an effective emissions pricing policy that delivers credible emissions reductions while keeping New Zealand’s farmers and growers solvent, it’s very difficult to is achieved, he said.

government releasing an emissions pricing plan proposed in October last year, which would have forced farmers to pay for a range of livestock emissions starting in 2025.

Strong protests from the sector led to December announcing changes to the proposal that would keep prices as low as possible and increase the types of farm trees and vegetation that can be used to offset emissions.

[The farmers] are a very powerful lobby domestically and they are an extremely important export earner, Hayward said. Successive governments have struggled to regulate this group and creating a new framework for agriculture was a victory, she said. However, implementing this to be an effective pricing system has been the least successful part of Ardern’s climate government.

A Framework for the Future

But while Ardern may not have been the pioneer who led a reduction in the nation’s overall emissions, as many had hoped, Hayward stressed that she leaves behind a strong framework that will support New Zealand in meeting its targets.

It would be wrong to say that [Ardern] wasn’t able to get much home, she said. Her government, working with the Greens, was able to significantly turn a polarized country around to establish a legislative framework. The difficulty now is to actually work to reduce emissions.

Before Ardern’s election in 2017, climate change was not a key issue in New Zealand politics.

There had been a lot of controversy in the 2017 election because climate change was not even raised as an issue by the state broadcaster, TVNZ, in any of the election debates, Hayward said. Then-Prime Minister Bill English said in an interview that climate change was not an issue people get out of bed thinking about.

Since then, Hayward describes the change in the New Zealand public’s understanding and ambition about climate change as remarkable.

According to surveys undertaken by the Economic and Public Policy Research Group island in 2015, about 41 percent of respondents agreed that New Zealand was likely to be adversely affected by climate change. In 2022, Ipsos The survey found that 76 percent of New Zealanders are concerned about the already visible impacts of climate change.

Geoffrey Palmer agreed that there had been significant progress under Ardern. When her government came into office, they inherited a Climate Change Response Act that was too toothless, he said.

But just two years into her tenure, Ardern managed to garner bipartisan support for strong policy changes.

The purpose of the law now is to provide a framework by which New Zealand can develop and implement clear and sustainable climate change policies that contribute to global efforts under the Paris Agreement, Palmer said.

An important development of the legislation was the creation of the independent Commission on Climate Change, which advises the government on mitigation and adaptation to the effects of global warming and monitors the progress of these efforts.

[The government] worked very successfully to secure agreement between all parties except the ultra-liberal ACT Party, Hayward said. This was important to ensure stability for governments and for businesses to be able to plan for the future.

The next general election in New Zealand is set for 14 October 2023 and no substantial movement in the climate space is expected in the intervening months. Incoming Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has focused his attention on the bread and butter issues facing New Zealand, such as rising living costs and inflation.

With a stronger legislative framework in place, there is optimism that New Zealand will make progress towards its emissions reduction targets. But on the international front, with Hipkins signaling his focus is closer to home, New Zealand is unlikely to continue to have the major influence on climate action it had under Ardern, at least for a while.

We will not see [Hipkins] at the UN talking about climate change and ways we can solve it, Larsson said.