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Peter Dutton's nuclear power plan breaks all the rules of policy making. Is it genius or career self-destruction?
Peter Dutton has broken every single rule when it comes to unveiling radical politics as opposition leader, tearing up the script and gambling with his party's chances at the next election with his nuclear policy.
If he can pull it off and convince enough voters that his plan for an Australian nuclear future is feasible and preferable, it will be the most unorthodox approach we've seen from an opposition leader in recent memory. It will rewrite our understanding of how modern politics works and reshape Australia.
Dutton has just put a target on his back, and many of his state and even federal colleagues are scratching their heads trying to figure out what the bigger strategy is here. Is cunning genius or political self-destruction longer?
But how much will it cost?
For months, reporters have been asking when and why the nuclear policy announcement was being delayed. Senior Coalition figures informed me that the opposition, knowing full well that Labor and others would throw everything to tear it apart, were doing their best to deliver a “bulletproof” policy that could 'resisted dissection and constant attack.
However, when Dutton and his colleagues appeared before the media yesterday, they described a policy with many unanswered questions, including, most importantly, the actual cost of their nuclear proliferation. The coalition says it will reveal the cost in due course. But to leave such an important detail unanswered when the entire debate centers around the cost of energy leaves the policy vulnerable and impossible to critically assess.
It is amazing and unheard of for a major political party to put forward such a significant and important policy plan without the numbers attached.
A senior Liberal suggested the delay in releasing the figures was to rob Labor of the ability to question the economic basis of policy that you can't pull back and choose the numbers that weren't given. Conventional policy would involve robust independent modeling and accounting disclosures to explain the cost to taxpayers.
Tony Barry, director of political research organization RedBridge Research and a former Liberal Party strategist, says the way the policy was announced leaves the Coalition vulnerable to criticism.
“It's not so much 'bulletproof' as wearing a high vest with a pin on it,” Barry told me. “The Coalition has to try to sell its product, while Labor just has to convince people not to buy it, and in that scenario, Labor has the easier job.”
There are hurdles to jump
Among the many hurdles for the coalition to jump before it can develop a nuclear site will be state premiers, who have lined up against the plan to set up nuclear power plants at seven locations across the country. Peter Dutton says states' concerns were easy to address.
“Someone famously said, 'I would not stand between the Prime Minister and a bucket of money', and we have seen Prime Ministers in various debates before where they have been able to negotiate with the Commonwealth and will to be able to address those issues,” he says.
A coalition government would also be needed convince the federal parliament The Senate also lifts restrictions on nuclear power and finds a solution to nuclear waste. It will also have to build a nuclear workforce from scratch.
Is it accessible? It would be a big departure from the usual Australian way of doing business.
And then there is the issue of social license. Communities will need to get on board and provide support to build nuclear facilities in their neighborhood. The coalition says polls in some of these seats show support, if narrow.
A survey published by the Lowy Institute Earlier this month out of 2,000 voters showed 61 per cent said they supported Australia including nuclear generation in its energy mix. Public opinion towards nuclear power in Australia has shifted over time. A significant minority (37 percent) “somewhat” or “strongly” oppose it. Those who “strongly support” nuclear power generation (27 percent) outnumber those who “strongly oppose” it (17 percent).
But on the issue of communities' rights to raise objections, nationalists were yesterday at odds.
Nationals leader David Littleproud contradicted his deputy, Perin Davey, who said that, “if a community is absolutely determined then we will not continue”. But the Nationals leader later said Davey's claim was not “correct”.
“Peter Dutton and David Littleproud, as part of a coalition government, are prepared to make tough decisions in the national interest. We will be consulting and making plenty of announcements.”
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More unanswered questions
Part of the motivation for this massive climate pivot is opposition to the spread of renewables. Given the controversy over poles and wires and their proliferation on the grounds that some communities don't want them, it seems likely that other communities will be pushed to accept the core.
The coalition is right to note some questions about the pace and cost of renewables deployment. But it's a big step to go from finding tepid support for renewables to assuming there will be full support for nuclear in the community.
If we accept that community opposition to the idea of nuclear is softening, though we cannot be sure by how much, then the struggle turns to cost.
Will the Coalition be able to convince the public that nuclear will really give them cheaper bills? On this main issue, evidence has not been provided.
Tony Wood of the Grattan Institute says there are many unanswered questions about the Coalition's nuclear policy.
“This is such a fundamental change in direction that the opposition must provide a more compelling case than we might normally ask of opposition parties,” he says.
“Everything we have so far says nuclear would be much more expensive. If the opposition gave a firm cost figure (even an order of magnitude) then others, including the Labor government, could compare it to plan A, which in itself is not free.”
Wood says there's also a timing problem (as with Labour's 82 per cent renewables plan), which needs the shutdown of coal to match the start of nuclear.
“There seems to be a big gap here and it's not clear how the opposition plans to fill it.”
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An unusual part of the opposition's proposal is for the nuclear plants to be government owned and operated.
“Putting aside Labour's unusual position of pushing private capital and the Coalition pushing public capital, there are no numbers to back up the price claims,” says Wood. “I'm pretty sure that Dutton's claim that the high prices are due to Labour's renewables policies is simply wrong. Prices are coming down slightly from 1 July and they've gone up over the last two years for reasons that have little to do with renewable resources.”
He added: “If we abandon plan A, what will the opposition do about the emissions that will occur between now and when nuclear is in place?”
Chris Bowen, the climate change and energy minister, branded Dutton's nuclear plan a “dangerous nuclear hoax” that raised more questions than answers.
Dutton says he is ready for the “mother of all scare campaigns” and welcomes a referendum on his nuclear plan.
So we are now in a new phase of the climate wars: the stakes are high for both Labor and the Coalition, and the debate will quickly move from atmosphere to detail.
Tony Barry points to a statistic he says should frame our thinking. When the debate on the Zeri referendum began, support was around 65 percent; by the time Australians voted, it was 39 percent.
Campaigns matter, goodwill can be wasted.
There will now be months of debate about the merits of this big and controversial idea. Answers will be of great importance.
Patricia Karvelas is the host of RN Breakfast and co-host of the Party Room podcast. She also presents Q+A, which returns to ABC TV in August.
Want to know more about nuclear power notification? Send us your questions and we'll try to answer them as part of our coverage.
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