Why 2021 could be a turning point in tackling climate change

Countries have only a limited time in which they can act if the world is to avoid the worst effects of climate change. Here are five reasons why 2021 could be a crucial year in the fight against global warming.

Covid-19 was the big issue of 2020, there is no discussion about that.

But I hope that, by the end of 2021, vaccines will start and we will talk more about the climate than the coronavirus.

2021 will certainly be a crisis year to tackle climate change.

Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, told me that he thinks it’s a do-it-yourself moment.

So in the spirit of New Year’s optimism, that’s why I believe 2021 may confuse those who destroy and see progress in global climate ambitions.

In November 2021, world leaders will gather in Glasgow for the successor to the historic 2015 Paris Summit.

Paris was important because it was the first time that virtually all the nations of the world came together to agree that everyone needed to help resolve the issue.

The problem was the commitments countries had made to reduce carbon emissions at the time far less than the targets set by the conference.

In Paris, the world agreed to avert the worst effects of climate change by trying to limit global temperature rise to 2C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. The goal was to keep the increase to 1.5C if possible.

We are far from the road. On current plans, the world is expected to break the 1.5C ceiling within 12 years or less and hit 3C of heat by the end of the century.

Under the terms of the Paris agreement, the countries promised to return every five years and increase their carbon cutting ambitions. This would take place in Glasgow in November 2020.

The pandemic decision paid for this and the conference took place this year.

So Glasgow 2021 gives us a forum in which those carbon cuts can be accumulated.

And there has already been progress.

The most important announcement of climate change last year came out of nowhere.

At the UN General Assembly in September, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China intended to switch to carbon neutral by 2060.

Environmentalists were stunned. Carbon cutting has always been seen as an expensive daily chore, yet here it was the most polluting nation on earth – responsible for about 28% of world emissions – making an unconditional commitment to do so regardless of whether other countries followed suit. his.

This was a complete reversal of past negotiations, when everyone feared that they might end up paying the cost of decarbonizing their economy, while others did nothing but again enjoy the fruits of the changing climate of their work. them.

The UK was the first major economy in the world to make a legally binding zero net commitment in June 2019. The European Union followed suit in March 2020.

Since then, Japan and South Korea have joined what the UN estimates are now a total of over 110 countries that have set zero zeros for the middle of the century. Together, they represent more than 65% of global emissions and more than 70% of the world economy, says KB.

With the election of Joe Biden to the United States, the world’s largest economy is now reunited with the carbon cutting chorus.

These countries now need to detail how they plan to achieve their lofty aspirations – this will be a major part of the Glasgow agenda – but the fact that they already say they want to get there is a very important change.

There is a good reason why so many countries are now saying they plan to go to zero: the collapse cost of renewables is completely changing the decarbonization account.

In October 2020, the International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental organization, concluded that the best solar energy schemes now offer “the cheapest source of electricity in history.”

Renewables are often often cheaper than fossil fuel energy in most parts of the world when it comes to building new power plants.

And, if the nations of the world increase their investments in wind, solar and battery in the coming years, prices are likely to fall even further to a point where they are so cheap that it will start to make commercial sense to close and replace existing coal and gas stations.

This is because the cost of renewables follows the logic of all products – the more you produce, the cheaper it becomes. It’s like pushing in an open door – the more you build the cheaper it gets and the cheaper it gets the more you build.

Think about what this means: investors will not have to be bullied by green activists to do the right thing, they will just pursue money. And governments know that by scaling up renewable energy in their economies, they help to accelerate the energy transition globally, making renewables even cheaper and more competitive everywhere.

The coronavirus pandemic has shaken our sense of invulnerability and reminded us that it is possible for our world to drown in ways we cannot control.

It has also dealt the most significant economic blow since the Great Depression.

In response, governments are stepping forward with stimulus packages designed to restart their economies.

And the good news is that it has rarely – or never – been cheaper for governments to make these kinds of investments. Worldwide, interest rates fluctuate around zero, or even negative.

This creates an unparalleled opportunity for – in the now familiar phrase – “to build better”.

The European Union and the new Joe Biden administration in the US have pledged trillions of dollars in green investments to drive their economies and start the decarbonisation process.

Both are saying they hope other countries will join them – helping reduce the cost of renewables worldwide. But they are also warning that in addition to carrots, they plan to use a stick – a tax on imports of high-carbon countries.

The idea is that this could help carbon-fiber jams – like Brazil, Russia, Australia and Saudi Arabia – also come to the side.

The bad news is that, according to the UN, developed countries are spending 50% more on fossil fuel-related sectors than on low-carbon energy.

The declining cost of renewable resources and the growing public pressure to act on climate change are also transforming business attitudes.

There are sound financial reasons for this. Why invest in new oil wells or coal-fired power plants that will become obsolete before they can pay for themselves during their 20-30-year life?

Indeed, why carry carbon on their wallets at all?

Logic is already playing in the markets. This year alone, Tesla’s stock price has made it the most valuable car company in the world.

Meanwhile, the share price of Exxon – once the world’s most valuable company of any kind – fell so far that it was pulled out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average of major US corporations.

At the same time there is a growing momentum behind the move to make businesses incorporate climate risk into their financial decision-making.

The goal is to make it mandatory for businesses and investors to show that their activities and investments are taking the necessary steps to move to a zero world.

Seventy central banks are already working to accomplish this, and building on these requirements in the world financial architecture will be a major focus for the Glasgow conference.

Still still everything to play.

So there is good reason for hope, but it is far from a final deal.

To have a reasonable chance of achieving the 1.5C target, we need to halve total emissions by the end of 2030, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN-backed body that gathers the science needed to inform policy.

What that means is doing some sort of reduction in emissions achieved in 2020 thanks to massive international blockages every year until the end of the decade. However, emissions are already returning to the levels they were in 2019.

The truth is that many countries have expressed high ambitions for carbon cutting, but few still have strategies to meet those goals.

The challenge for Glasgow will be for the nations of the world to enroll in policies that will begin to reduce emissions now. The UN says it wants coal to be completely removed, an end to all fossil fuel subsidies and a global coalition to reach net zero by 2050.

This remains a very long order, even if global feelings about tackling global warming have begun to change.

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