Climate Change Commission plan ‘a big challenge’ for New Zealand

New Zealand is heading for a major upheaval under a historic plan to tackle the climate crisis – but the sectors online for the most serious change are already showing signs of resistance.

(photo photo) Climate Change Minister James Shaw says the cost of the transition is much lower than previously estimated.
Photo: RNZ / Rachel Thomas

The Climate Change Commission has issued a draft plan with recommendations on how to reduce emissions to ensure the country is carbon neutral by 2050.

Among his proposals: ban imports of conventional cars, reduce livestock numbers by about 15 percent, close Tiwai Point and ban gas slabs in new homes.

The government calls it the moment without a nucleus of this generation – a radical reform is required in the face of rising global temperatures.

“It will be a challenge, but if we stand up to the challenge, then the opportunity that lies ahead is great,” said Climate Change Minister James Shaw.

A great opportunity with great ramifications – and different challenges for different sectors.

According to the plan drawn up by the Climate Change Commission, the coal and oil and gas mining industries will be hit hard – up to 1,100 jobs lost by 2035.

“It depends on whether you think the future that the Commission has painted will happen and I’m not convinced,” said John Carnegie, head of the PEPANZ oil and gas lobby group.

Overall, Carnegie said he saw the report thoughtful and nuanced.

But his recommendation to stop installing gas connections in new homes – he calls it a distraction – something that would cost many consumers a bit of a reversal.

“There is a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and 2035, and we are quite confident it will play a role for oil and gas in the New Zealand economy,” he said.

New Zealand roads have been set for a shock also under the Commission’s vision, with a proposed ban on any new petrol car coming into the country at some point between 2030 and 2035.

By that completion date, he wants two-fifths of the light vehicle fleet to be electric.

Motorcycle Industry Association chief executive David Crawford called it a monumental change.

“It’s a very difficult task, but it is starting to focus on the Zealanders about what we need to do if we are to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.”

For Crawford, the timeline for the import ban could be very ambitious – surpassing other countries and carmakers as well.

He says consumers will need incentives of some kind to move New Zealanders into electric vehicles – like the entertainment scheme promoted by New Zealand in its first and final term.

“If you want to move faster than the market, you need the help of the government to do that,” he said.

The Climate Change Commission wants two-fifths of New Zealand’s fleet of light vehicles to be electric by 2035.
Photo: 123rf.com

The agricultural sector, too, is in line for some adjustments.

Federated farmers like the Commission’s move away from mass planting of pines – and the way methane is treated separately from carbon dioxide.

Even so, President Andrew Hoggard said the proposed methane targets look too high.

He also questioned the plan to cut back on stock – while maintaining production.

“It’s not an easy change. Sometimes we do not live in a perfect world and sometimes the best goals are not so easy to achieve.”

The final report will go to the government before the end of May – then it will have to decide what to do with it.

Report Gives Shaw ‘Great Hope’

Told by Climate Change Minister James Shaw Morning Report The biggest challenge the government faced with the report was finding a balance between different industry sectors.

“Each sector means ‘it’s very difficult, you have to go more to another sector’ but then how do you balance it?

“I think the Commission has done a pretty good job of this in their draft advice. But it will be a little shocking for some people.”

Shaw said New Zealand would not meet its targets under the Paris Agreement if it did not approve the Commission’s plan.

He said he also got a lot of hope from what the report said.

“Although it is a very large drop in emissions over the next 10.15 years, the report says that we have the technology available today, it does not require any new kind of magic science to appear in the next 15 years, and also, the cost of transition is much, much lower than we had previously estimated. “

Shaw said the government will ensure that regions that rely heavily on employment fossil fuels, such as Taranaki, have alternative job opportunities.

“It’s important to have these five-year budgets and have three in place at all times, so you always have a 15-year view ahead, which gives businesses a long enough time horizon to be able to make plans and invest in alternatives.

“This (also) gives the government enough time to put in place transition plans and work with workers and industry and unions and local communities in those transitions.”

Shaw said the report also had good news for farmers as well.

“Until yesterday, our predictions were that we would need about 1.1 million hectares of land converted to forestry in order to act as a carbon sink.

“What the commissioner is saying is that we have to suppress the current reductions at source much, much harder than in offset forests, and they are talking about limiting forests to something like over 700,000 hectares. This should address one of the main complaints that farmers have. have had about plans so far. “

Shaw added that Transport Minister Michael Wood was looking at stimulus schemes for electric vehicles.