The surge in COVID cases in Louisiana is due to the delta variant, low vaccination rate.Coronavirus

Experts have been preparing for the effects of the delta variant, the first version of the coronavirus discovered in India for weeks, are twice as contagious and have an enhanced ability to evade protective antibodies. .. Now, a surprising new surge in the incident suggests that Delta was founded in Louisiana and that previously beaten viruses are on the rise again.

“I think we’re in it,” said Dr. Joe Canter, Secretary of Health and Welfare. “We are seeing what seems to be the beginning of the increase.”

Last week, the number of cases increased by 3,360. This is the largest surge since March 4, the end of the winter surge. Cases have more than doubled in the last 14 days. This may be the effect of a more contagious Delta variant invading an unvaccinated host.

Delta is currently the predominant strain in the United States, accounting for 52% of new cases. Louisiana and neighboring states account for 59% of new cases.

Residents of Louisiana have one of the lowest immunization rates in the country and are at increased risk of coronavirus infection. After Mississippi, only 39% of the population has been shot at least once. Nationally, vaccine initiation rates are 55%, and are currently over 70% in states such as Vermont, Hawaii, and Massachusetts.

“Nationwide, the surge is high in areas with low vaccination rates, unfortunately in us and in many neighboring states,” Canter said. “There is no question about that.”

Experts said it was unlikely that people hospitalized with the virus would overwhelm Louisiana’s health care system as it did in the past, but it is unclear how long the increase will continue. Deaths and hospitalizations weeks after the surge in cases will continue to increase, but at least some populations are protected by the vaccine, including most elderly people who accounted for the majority of deaths before the vaccine became available. I am.

“I don’t think it’s going to be as bad as last March and January this year, but if you don’t get it, it won’t be clean,” said Dr. Julio Figueroa. , LSU Health New Orleans Infectious Disease Expert.

In Figueroa, the number of inpatients, especially young people, is increasing. However, he also sees elevated COVID among vaccinated people with weakened immune systems, such as transplant patients.

Doctors also said more infections were seen between family members and close contact. It is an infectious product of delta mutants that can be transmitted in a blink of an eye. Australian officials believe the outbreak was caused when a COVID-19 limousine driver infected another person in an indoor mall or cafe without direct dialogue.

Dr. Sandra Chemary, an infectious disease expert at Oxner Health, said: “Now it’s much more likely to spread rapidly among families and people who come together.”

Since June 30, Oxner has seen an increase in inpatients from 55 to nearly 100.

This increase is still far from the previous surge, but it is even more tragic with the availability of vaccines.

“I see people getting very sick, their families not vaccinated, and their loved ones dying. I realize it’s probably a little too late, and it’s sad. “

But it’s also frustrating for healthcare providers who have been fighting pandemics for 16 months.

“We knew in the spring of 2020 that vaccines were the way out,” Chemary said. “We are now vaccinated with highly effective vaccines in the summer of 2021 and people do not want to take them for any reason.”

Dr. Catherine O’Neill, Chief Medical Officer of the Baton Rouge Hour Lady of the Lake, said she was experiencing a surge in flashbacks last summer.

“It’s creepy like last July,” O’Neill said. O’Neill said the community spread slowly increased before the infection spread and hospitalizations surged. “It’s like someone throwing gasoline into a fire.”

And while more people are protected than last year, innate immunity from previous infections is not protected from delta mutants.

“We have kept this premise of a community that was hit hard early on. Perhaps innate immunity has helped,” O’Neill said. “It won’t help with this variant.”

Since the vaccine became available, more than 99% of coronavirus deaths in Louisiana have been due to unvaccinated people. Of the 3,920 deaths, only 27 were among the fully vaccinated, according to Canter. In the last two months, the state has killed an average of 45-65 people a week, according to the Louisiana Department of Health.

The vaccine is relatively consistent with the Delta variant, and studies have shown that the Pfizer vaccine is effective in the range of 64% to 88%.

However, the increase in cases threatens vaccination, albeit not so much. As the number of cases increases, so-called “breakthrough” cases are more likely. And the more infections there are, the more chances the virus will mutate so that it can bypass the vaccine’s defenses. Authorities are currently encouraging vaccination while the vaccine is effective.

“If you get vaccinated, you can do something about it,” Chemary said. “If you are not vaccinated, you may want the variant to be current and not future.”