Health
How many people were infected with the coronavirus in January?
SARS-CoV-2 is highly contagious, but in dozens of imported cases, it is probably insufficient to cause many large undetected outbreaks. Based on related diseases such as SARS and MERS, epidemiologists suspect that the spread of coronavirus transmission is irregular. Perhaps some ill people will infect others, but most will infect only a handful. Alessandro VespignaniNetwork scientist and professor of public health at Northeastern University saw perhaps 10-20 “local transmission events” in January in cities in the United States that later became hot spots for COVID-19 I presume. Apart from one or two infectious diseases that have caused large-scale outbreaks in places like Seattle and New York, most of the infectious diseases that arrived in January infect at most a few people and “disappear” immediately. Will Told me
READ: Why is America totally unsuitable for combating coronaviruses?
A more accurate picture of how many sick people carried SARS-CoV-2 to the US earlier this year could be difficult or impossible to collect, especially during a global health crisis You will need the data. One is the number of people who actually had COVID-19 in January (Before). Wuhan official data is I can’t trust from the beginning. And the countries that have since stepped up their efforts to detect coronaviruses did not see cases very carefully earlier this year. The World Health Organization did not declare a World Health emergency until 30 January.
Researchers also need to know where people have traveled around the world during the first weeks of the pandemic. “One of the major challenges in seeing the actual worldwide spread of the disease has been a great deal of disruption to travel patterns since January,” Gardner said. When researchers do not have complete travel data for the time and place they are studying, they often replace or extrapolate recent data. “Um, I don’t have data for 2016, but I am using data for 2015. It’s a representative.” That’s not the case anymore. The Chinese government closed Wuhan on January 23. Even before that, individual people’s movement patterns may have begun to change in ways that are difficult to track.
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Deaths
If you cannot fully explain your livelihood, one way forward is to count the dead. The lack of testing means that some deaths of COVID-19 have gone undetected, but researchers have looked at excess mortality to better predict the number of people the virus killed in a given period of time. I can figure it out. In normal circumstances.
Last week, National Health Statistics Center Preliminary data published Weekly excess deaths from January 2017 will be updated as the pandemic progresses. “We did this for the first time before the data was finalized,” said Bob Anderson, head of the NCHS mortality statistic branch. It is hoped that researchers will be able to use the totals to estimate the number of Americans who died of COVID-19 over a given time period, and from that the number of Americans infected. But finding overkill in the first few weeks of the year will be difficult. Only a handful of COVID-19 deaths are not instantaneous, compared to the hundreds of thousands of deaths the country experiences in a typical month. In fact, according to NCHS calculations, the United States did not significantly exceed the expected deaths until the week of March 22.
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