Sydney has to bite a bullet and go into a hard lockdown

Blood Hazard Health Minister I immediately forgot the proposal yesterday The ongoing New South Wales blockade may have to be extended for months, with regular government briefings to journalists and New South Wales health advisors to determine the state’s next steps. He said he would rely on the expertise and on-site information provided by. He is right to listen to his people. And I understand his dissatisfaction with the free advice provided from all quarters over the last 18 months. However, as I have been deeply involved in modeling how COVID responds to policy options, including the Victorian government, I presented three options before NSW and NSW’s “soft lockdown”. I feel I have to express my concern to the model.

First, NSW shrugged, “The virus is here now. Let’s live with it and get out of the blockade.” This would be a disaster. Even if masking and contact tracing stopped the spread of the virus (and reduced the reproductive rate of the delta variant from 5 to 2), unblocking NSW would result in 200 cases per day in about 5 days. It will be 400 cases. 10 days, 1600 cases a day within 3 weeks. Mortality is high, medical services are interrupted, and (desperately) need to return to the blockade. Option 1 is not an option.

Second, NSW can use soft lockdown to continue its current state. Expanded “alaNSW” which requires community members to self-assess. Self-assess whether you are an essential worker and go to work. It tries to limit mobility and contact, but there are no strict rules regarding mobility such as a radius of 5km. If you are under the age of 60, self-assess whether getting AstraZeneca will benefit individuals and the community.

Credits Required Credits, yesterday, with some borders around the outskirts of Fairfield, important workers needing to get in and out of Fairfield need to prove the test at least every three days. did.

However, it has not been tried so far, so it is difficult to know if this NSW approach with strong contact tracing will work. (Last year’s Zone Lockdown in Melbourne did not involve strong contact tracing, and Northern Beach had clear geographical boundaries.)

In the context of the highly infectious delta virus, which can spread among asymptomatic people and can spread (even among the most compliant people tested every 3 days), It’s hard to believe it works-and if it works, it will probably take a long time.

There is a real risk of whac-a-mole. In today’s fairfield, the virus invades somewhere else, and the next week another suburb will take off. Unless a city-wide hard lockdown is imposed to shut down the virus in the new niche.

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