Increasing share of coronavirus testing, which has returned positive in Texas, fuels fear of another wave

The proportion of COVID-19 tests that have returned positive in the state has not been seen since winter, as less than half of the vaccinated Texas people and the highly contagious delta variant of the coronavirus are widespread. It is rising to speed.

As of this weekend, Texas has a positive rate of over 10%. This is the government level. Greg Abbott And the Trump administration Identified as The early red flag of the pandemic. Meanwhile, the total number of new cases and hospitalizations confirmed daily are increasing rapidly, but well below the winter peak.

On Saturday, the seven-day average of newly identified cases in the state was 2,119. This is almost three times the average of 757 at the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, the number of people hospitalized for the state’s coronavirus increased from 1,591 on July 1st to 2,834 on Friday.

More than 14,200 people infected with COVID-19 were hospitalized on January 11. This is the highest number of pandemic hospitalizations in Texas to date.

However, the positive rate stands out among the increasing numbers, as experts consider it a leading indicator.

“Early signs are similar. Benjamin Neumann, a virologist and professor at Texas A & M University, said:” Epidemiologists read test-positive statistics like low tide, and that’s me. It looks like they are heading for a big wave. “

In the last seven days, about 144,000 molecular tests, including swab tests on the nose and throat, have been performed, of which 10.2% have returned positive, according to the Texas Department of Health. The state’s positive rate last exceeded 10% in February, reaching a record low of 2.8% in mid-June.

The positive rate depends on the number of tests performed, so it does not clearly measure how widespread the virus is throughout the state, but “it shows that many cases are overlooked. “We do,” Neumann said.

“Currently, 10 percent of the states are uninfected,” he continued. “But 10% of people who have snuffs have a COVID, which means we’re at the beginning of something like another wave. Numbers from other parts of the United States We’ve seen it rise and Texas a little behind, but it looks like we’re catching up early. “

This is because it is very contagious Delta variant Is now the most popular version of COVID-19 in the country. This, along with mitigated precautions, is cited by Neuman as the reason for the increased positive rate.

“This shows how late we are to get this done,” he said. “This shows how far the virus is in this race compared to our understanding of what the virus is doing. The virus is now running around us. I will. “

Public health experts have been alerting to delta variants in recent weeks, especially in places like Texas where vaccination rates are low. Currently, about 43% of Texas is fully vaccinated.

Vaccines have been shown to be very effective in preventing new cases of coronavirus, but there have been some rare outbreaks of breakthrough infections. Dr. John Carlo, CEO of PrismHealthNorthTexas and president of AIDS Arms Physicians, said that fully vaccinated people will be infected with the virus anyway.

“The reason it’s happening more and more is that if an unvaccinated person circulates with someone who is still vaccinated, the risk is minimized but still punched out. Because there is a risk of infection, “Carlo said.

Evidence also suggests that a small number of vaccinated but infected people are more likely to face a less severe version of the disease.

“Fortunately, we see breakthrough infections, but these are only mild cases,” Carlo said. “The vaccine shows excellent protection, but I knew it wasn’t perfect. It’s not 100%. And the important thing to know is that the vaccine is a severe symptom when infected with a virus. Is to increase the possibility of

In a statement, DSHS said the delta variant “has a significant impact on unvaccinated people, leading to new cases and increased hospitalizations.” Texas officials haven’t said how many new cases there are between vaccinated and unvaccinated people, but national and local health leaders have the most serious impact. He says it seems to be overwhelming among unvaccinated people.

Rochelle Walensky, Director of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Said this month Preliminary data from several states over the last six months suggest that 99.5% of COVID-19 deaths occurred among unvaccinated individuals. HCA Healthcare Inc., a national hospital chain with over 40 hospitals in Texas. Told the Wall Street Journal Less than 1% of COVID-19 patients are completely vaccinated.

Recent numbers have led some local authorities to demand new restrictions to prevent proliferation. last week, Travis County authorities warned The average number of new cases each day tripled, requiring unvaccinated residents to avoid meetings, travel, eating out, and wear masks when leaving home.

However, city and county leaders can only encourage residents to follow these guidelines, as Abbott limits its authority to impose regional restrictions.Abbott Unlock State Maskman Date And business restrictions in March.

A year ago, Abbott identified positive rates as a tracking indicator when assessing the need for new limits. However, in the second half of the pandemic, he further focused on the capacity of the hospital and created a system where restrictions would be tightened if more than 15% of the beds in the area were occupied by COVID-19 patients. Currently, no region is close to that indicator, with COVID-19 patients accounting for 4.3% of all beds on July 16.

Still, many experts continue to focus on vaccination above all else. Neumann said reducing the number of people who could be infected with the virus is the only way to slow the spread of the virus.

“The virus is the only thing that can do it, so it will just grow,” Neumann said. “And as humans, we have more choices about how we can respond, which is our only advantage against things like viruses and bacteria. We see, plan and respond. You can. If you give up one of the benefits we have, we are really at the mercy of the virus. “