Delta peaks are hard to predict, but could come this month

The surge in delta variants in the United States could peak later this month, but experts say it will be difficult to predict and will depend heavily on unpredictable factors: human behavior.

The United States is expected to endure raging in the coming weeks, no matter what.

According to New York Times data, the 7-day average for COVID-19 has risen to 85,866 cases per day as of Monday, the highest since Valentine’s Day.

The increase in the number of cases is higher than last summer’s peak of about 67,000 cases, but much lower than winter’s highest point of almost 260,000 cases.

“What will happen in the coming weeks depends on the population,” said Nicholas Reich, an associate professor of biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

“This is a fragment of the optimism we have. The reason it’s hard to predict is that changing the trajectory is like our control as a society,” he said. “But it requires everyone to be careful, cautious, and attentive to each other.”

The United States generally tracks the United Kingdom when it is prone to both alpha and delta variants of the coronavirus. After a surge in cases in June and July, the number of cases in the UK fell dramatically, almost halving from its peak in late July.

Experts show that current UK trends can lead to a sudden decline in cases in the United States, but the same thing happens because of different infections, vaccinations, and precautionary compliance rates. Said he was not sure.

Spencer Fox, associate director of the UTCOVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas, said the state of Texas is “in the midst of a fairly alarming surge,” and I don’t think there will be such a decline in Texas. Stated. There are no signs of slowdown. “

One in three records recorded in the United States last week was confirmed in Florida and Texas. The White House coronavirus coordinator. Jeff SeientsJeff SeientsBiden accuses Republican governor of banning Mask’s duty Overnight Healthcare: According to the CDC, average daily COVID infections peaked last summer.The U.S. has achieved a 70% vaccination target one month after Biden’s target | The White House says the CDC cannot renew its eviction ban According to the CDC, the average daily COVID-19 infection exceeded its peak last summer. more He said on Monday as both states are wrestling with overwhelming hospitals.

“I’m not very optimistic that this surge will soon turn around,” Fox said. “What we are seeing is a huge surge. Delaying infection requires major changes in behavior.”

The Delta variant has spread rapidly and seems to have almost surprised anyone working on projection modeling.

Justin Lessler, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina at Chaelings Global Public Health School, says that so far, infectious variants are growing faster than any model and are “a little scary.”

“Given the rising rates, they will either peak earlier than expected or peak much higher than expected,” said the wrestler. “Probably both will be true.”

Many Americans have stopped wearing masks and travel has peaked since the pandemic took control of the country last March.

In combination with the infectious Delta strain, the University of Washington School of Medicine’s Institute for Health Index Evaluation (IHME) said cases could increase until mid-August.

IHME estimates that by November 1, the total number of deaths would exceed 683,000, with an additional 76,000 deaths between July 26 and July 26.

But if the United States gets 95% of universal masks, it can save about 49,000 of those lives, says Ali Mokkdad, epidemiologist and chief strategy officer for population health.

At the University of Washington.

The CDC last week updated mask guidance for fully vaccinated people to wear masks in indoor public places in high-risk areas. This currently applies to 80% of all counties in the United States. However, the announcement has sparked a backlash, including Republicans, and indicates that it may not have a high compliance rate.

Some experts, including Mokudad, said hospitalization is a better indicator of pandemic propensity than number of cases, as cases may go undetected due to lack of symptoms or mild cases. .. Hospitalizations are also on the rise, reaching a seven-day average of about 49,500 per day as of Saturday.

IHME estimates that 30 states will put high or extreme stress on hospital capacity, and 35 states will put that level of stress on intensive care unit capacity.

“It’s a dangerous sign,” Mokudad said. You just ask people to stay home if they can stay home. Unfortunately, it is now found in many states. “

Former Commissioner of Food and Drugs Scott Gottlieb said last week that the United States predicted that it could overcome the worst delta variants in the coming weeks and believed tensions had spread beyond what authorities tracked. rice field.

“I think we’re going further into this delta wave than we’re picking up,” he told CNBC. “I think this will be done in a few weeks.”

Other experts suggest that the peak may be prolonged if schools are reopened later this month.

Andrew Pekoshi, a professor of molecular microbiology and immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said last week that such an opening would provide “another opportunity for a resurrection.”

Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, worked with Gottlieb to make a cautious prediction that cases peak in about two to four weeks and may be hospitalized thereafter.

However, such predictions are clouded with uncertainty as Sherman makes assumptions about the future that depend on unpredictable human behavior, such as whether authorities will implement new precautions in the coming weeks. I emphasized that there is.

“The reality is … I don’t think anyone knows how policies change, how individual practices are carried out, and how tightly they are adhered to,” he said.

In a behavioral scenario, Sherman said the US case rate peaked at just under 150,000 cases per day and could record 1 million cases per week.