Increasing the COVID-19 vaccination rate in Florida, Texas could have saved 4,700 lives by July.

The success of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns in many states demonstrates the real-world feasibility and impact of achieving high vaccination rates. By the end of July, an average of 74% of adults had been fully vaccinated in five states: Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, and Rhode Island, with COVID-related hospitalizations compared to other states. And the mortality rate has dropped. In contrast, Florida and Texas, the two states with the highest burdens of cases, hospitalizations and deaths, currently only fully vaccinated 59.3% and 55.6% of adult residents, respectively.

We calculated the number of deaths, hospitalizations, and cases that could have been avoided if Florida and Texas reached a vaccination rate of 74%. By doing so, it was found that the two states could have avoided more than 70,000 hospitalizations and 4,700 deaths by the end of July.

The highly infectious delta variants that are driving the current surge make the situation even more dire. As of August 11, the average number of new 7-day daily cases exceeded 118,000 nationwide, above the previous summer peak. Outbreaks primarily affect states with relatively low vaccination rates, with nearly one-third of recent cases occurring in Florida and Texas.

Florida recorded the highest number of deaths per day in the United States — 141 (7-day average until August 10, 2021). Texas followed, killing 63 people.

our Previous analysis The US vaccination campaign against COVID-19 shows that by the end of June, about 1.25 million hospitalizations and 280,000 deaths had been prevented nationwide. Our current analysis shows that complete vaccination of 74% of adults in Florida by the end of July would reduce hospitalizations by about 39,000 from 144,782 to 106,113 and deaths by an estimated 2,806 from 19,489 to 16,683. I understand (table). In Texas, increasing vaccination rates is estimated to reduce hospitalizations by more than 32,000 from 163,058 to 130,755 and deaths by more than 1,900 from 29,435 to 27,525.

Enhanced vaccination was found to significantly reduce the increase in cases in Florida and Texas, avoiding more than 460,000 cases. From the start of vaccination on December 12, 2020 to July 31, 2021, Florida and Texas have reported more than 1.5 million and 1.7 million cases, respectively. Achieving a 74% vaccination rate by July 31, 2021 could reduce to about 1.3 million in Florida and 1.5 million in Texas.

Estimated Impact of Higher COVID-19 Vaccination Rate on Hospitalizations and Deaths in Florida by 31 July 2021

Estimated Impact of Increased COVID-19 Vaccination Rate on Texas Hospitalizations and Deaths by 31 July 2021

Efforts to increase vaccination rates are important to reduce the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization and mortality, as delta variants continue to spread rapidly in Florida and Texas. Throughout the United States, the majority of hospitalizations and deaths occur among unvaccinated individuals. In Florida and Texas, the surge in demand for hospital care for unvaccinated cases has overwhelmed medical facilities and pushed intensive care units to capacity limits.

There are more than 7 million people left in Florida and more than 9 million in Texas, who are eligible for vaccination but not jabs. If the estimates by the end of July apply, many of these people will suffer from hospitalization and some may die. More stringent immunization campaigns are becoming increasingly essential in these states.

How to carry out this survey

To assess the impact of increased vaccination rates in Florida and Texas, we extended the peer-reviewed age group-based agent-based model of the COVID-19 spread to four SARS-CoV-2 variants (alpha). , Gamma, Delta) infectious dynamics included. , And the original Wuhan-1 variant. The model was parameterized with an empirically determined contact network that explains the demographics of these states, pandemic migration patterns, disease characteristics, and age-related risks of serious health outcomes due to COVID-19. rice field. We incorporated data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention regarding the daily vaccine doses given in these states. Utilizing published estimates to explain the efficacy of vaccines against infections, symptomatic, and serious illnesses of different vaccine types, adjusting them for each variant and time from vaccination I considered it. Our model was tailored to the incidence reported in each state from October 1, 2020 to July 31, 2021, and validated for hospitalization and mortality trends over the same period.

Enhanced by using a calibrated model to adjust the daily vaccine dose distributed to cover 74% of fully vaccinated adults by 31 July 2021. We evaluated the impact of vaccination rollouts. Observed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in these two states from December 12, 2020 to July 31, 2021. Contact the author for more information on the model.

Confidence interval for probable preventable cases, hospitalizations, and deaths (Crl)

Expanding vaccination coverage to 74% of fully vaccinated adults in Florida, hospitalizations ranged from 144,782 to 106,113 (95% CrI: 101,611–110,208) and deaths ranged from 19,489 to 16,683 (95% CrI: 16,013). It decreases to –17,370). From the perspective of per 100,000 inhabitants, it should have prevented 180 (95% CrI: 161–201) hospitalizations and 13 (95% CrI: 10–16) deaths. Increased vaccination coverage in Texas reduced hospitalizations and deaths to 130,755 (95% CrI: 126,621–134,384) and 27,525 (95% CrI: 26,501–28,608), respectively, to 111 (95% CrI: 99–126). Hospitalization and 7 (95% 3–10) deaths per 100,000 population. Achieving a 74% vaccination rate by 31 July 2021 will result in an average of 1,301,940 (95% CrI: 1,242,902–1,360,887) cases in Florida and 1,533,746 (95% CrI: 1,488,073–1,575,636) cases in Texas. However, 1,281 (95% CrI: 1,007 to 1,556 per 100,000 population, respectively) and 666 (95% 522 to 824) additional cases.

This article was originally Published by the Commonwealth Fund..

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COVID-19 (New Coronavirus Infection)
Texas
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Florida
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