The state has recorded deaths from two coronaviruses as a “moderate” relaxation of flagged restrictions.

The latest measures will not allow the school to reopen, but Andrews said he would outline plans for senior students to return to the classroom on Wednesday.

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Senior government sources Said before Age It seems very unlikely that the current Delta outbreak will be extinguished, so the minister should consider reopening the playground and returning grade 12 to the classroom.

Deakin University Epidemiology Director Catherine Bennett predicted that relaxing the initial restrictions, such as lifting the curfew and increasing people’s time to exercise outdoors, would be a less risky measure. In the coming weeks, she was hoping for a soft launch of some business that some people might be able to sit in an outdoor cafe.

The Victoria State Government has officially changed its strict stance on eliminating the virus, but Andrews said on Tuesday that he would reduce the number of cases as much as possible and “close to zero” to avoid overwhelming state hospitals. I emphasized that the purpose is.

“This is bloody tough, no one is pretending to be anyone else,” he said.

“”[On Wednesday], Thresholds, announce low numbers that you think you can include. We always push to be as low as possible, but if, despite our best efforts, zero is not achievable, I would like to point out two points: it can go far beyond zero. No, and secondly, we should chase after zero. Otherwise, thousands of cases will end. “

Professor Sutton and his public health team completed a roadmap for COVID-19 restrictions on Tuesday afternoon until Victoria achieved its vaccination goals, and acceptable case thresholds that must be reached before the blockade rules were relaxed. Was decided.

Eight senior government ministers, including the prime minister, met on Tuesday night to decide on the setting. The wider cabinet is expected to approve new rules and paths for reopening Wednesday morning.

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In New South Wales, the government has already promised to allow fully vaccinated people living outside the area of ​​interest to meet up to four people from other outdoor households. People living in hotspot areas can gather outdoors for recreation and exercise.

James McCaw, an epidemiologist and mathematical biologist at the University of Melbourne who provided the federal government with pandemic modeling, said it was impossible to determine an achievable magic number for long-term maintenance. ..

However, to effectively manage the case load, Professor McCaw said Victoria cannot exceed the threshold of 100 cases per day.

“Ideally, we need to take steps to keep the number of cases per day below 50 to 100 per day,” he said.

“As the number of cases increases, it becomes difficult to respond to the pandemic in the future when the number of people reaches 200 to 300 per day …”

Rather than wanting to speculate on the relaxation of the restrictions foreseen by Andrews, Professor McCaw said there was room for “guaranteeing minor or minor changes to the current restrictions, which would be of great benefit.”

Epidemiologist Nancy Baxter said Victoria needs to set goals as low as possible within double-digit thresholds, and 50 or 100 new daily cases are still too high.

According to Professor Baxter, who said he was very concerned, there were about 40 new cases of infection in the community in Victoria.

She said NSW reported only 78 cases a day at the end of July, and that number surged to more than 1000 cases a day in five weeks.

Professor Baxter was asked about restrictions that the government could safely relax, allowing people to exercise longer outdoors and slightly increasing the radius of 5 kilometers could be done without the risk of a significant surge in incidents. Said.

However, she suspected that the government might also choose to allow the family to return to the playground.

“It’s more dangerous, but it’s very important from a mental health standpoint.”

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The Prime Minister did not describe which restrictions would be relaxed, but emphasized that it was not a “free day” and that the relaxation of the rules would be modest and cautious.

“It won’t be an open-minded day,” Andrews said.

“It will be a modest change, hoping that it will be meaningful to people’s lives. There is as much economic activity as possible, but there is no midpoint here, so it will be a very modest change. It will be a very small number or a very large number until people are vaccinated. ”

Andrews said last week he did not support the idea proposed by the University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely. Move to a light blockade There is a slight increase in freedom to admit the difficulty of reaching zero.

At Professor Blakely’s suggestion, strict rules will be maintained, but more time will be allowed outside, travel restrictions will be 10 kilometers, some retail stores will open, and important sectors such as construction will open. It may return to greater operational capacity.

His modeling of the proposal estimates that cases will increase to about 400 per day, but vaccine coverage will curb the surge by mid-October.

But more and more government lawmakers are struggling to quell the latest delta outbreaks, despite Victoria’s strict blockade as soon as possible. Focused on adjusting strict limits To reduce the mental health burden of Victorian people who have endured more than 200 days in the blockage.

Of the 76 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, 45 were associated with pre-existing outbreaks and 36 were isolated throughout the duration of infection.

17 at BroadMedose’s MyCentre Childcare Facility, 9 at Shepherton Cluster, 3 at Mirrors Junction Shopping Center in Altona North, 1 at Spotswood Learning Sanctuary, 1 at St. Kilda East Engagement Party Cluster In addition, one is connected to Altona College. One at Fisherman’s Bend retail center and 11 at an existing cluster that remains a mystery.

“The message is clear because the message is true and the message is important,” said Professor Sutton.

“You have to follow the rules, not just because they are the rules. It’s a way to protect yourself and your loved ones … COVID is an unvaccinated, unvaccinated individual. Look for all these gaps, such as: Individuals who are not doing the right thing, unnecessarily contacting others and providing opportunities for communication. “

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Professor Bennett said the goal should be to keep new infections in the double digits, but even chasing the daily numbers of 20 new cases would probably not be achieved in the long run.

“It’s about closing the lid and keeping the number of cases below that,” she said.

She predicted that this number would continue to bounce in the coming months, but the most important aspect was to keep the average number of copies that each infected person would infect with the virus below one.

Hassan Valley, an associate professor at La Trobe University, suspected that the government might do what it could to safely reopen small businesses. He also predicted that as we move into spring and the days get warmer and longer, authorities will increase pressure to lift the curfew.

“This is a new frontier for us, like a real-time experiment,” he said. “The government may be picking the number of cases per day they feel comfortable with, adjusting limits depending on the tracking method, and tinkering with the settings.”