Health
Covid-19: How effective is the third vaccination?
Another question is whether the immunity gained from the booster program can last longer if designed with an updated version of the vaccine, such as a vaccine that can recognize new variants like Delta.
“Repeat, you can write an entire PhD for this kind of thing. There is a complex world, different people and different patterns of defensive immunity,” says Altman. In the first place, we were all either infected or uninfected, but the outpaths are diverging rapidly, which complicates vaccine development.
Altman explains that a person walking down the street may have been infected with the original Covid-19 variant and re-infected with the Delta strain after receiving two Pfizer vaccines. Meanwhile, another person may have been vaccinated with another brand and infected with another variant, such as the Alpha strain first identified in Kent.
“So how do you guess which spike sequence or mutation to put on the vaccine to make something that could be useful in the next year or two?” Altman says. “This isn’t as simple as saying it’s the last variant you’ve heard. Hit it against. It’s not that simple. “
In an ideal world, Altman wants the government to take into account this variability in the immunity of the population and perhaps test people’s antibody levels to see if a third dose is actually needed. I’m out.
Other protracted questions include how much the third dose should be-the UK plans to experiment with giving to people There are few booster shot vaccines, To make more doses available to developing countries, and how long should they be administered after the second dose. For example, Israel is running with a five-month gap, but the United States plans to wait eight months between them.
The future of boosters
But perhaps the most pressing question is how long will the newly recovered immunity from the booster shot last? At least here, there is strong doubt about what will happen.
“We don’t think we know that,” says Humar. “But I think it’s a very realistic possibility, especially as we see a decrease in antibodies and a decrease in efficacy against mutants.”
Altman could also see the booster program eventually evolve into an annual program, but it’s unclear if science will back it up. “I think it’s an administrative logistics decision, not an immunological decision,” he said, and I think herd immunity-in all antibodies and T cells involved-is low enough to justify it. I will explain that it will not be done.
“But it’s easy for a health ministry planner to say,’Well, the easiest thing to do is to do it at the same time every fall, so let’s launch more doses in the world and do it.'” I can imagine, “says Altman.
Israel seems to be already approaching such a scenario. As soon as the country’s “virus emperor” Salman Zarca suggested that preparations for a fourth injection should begin, they announced that they would offer a third dose to all eligible citizens. ..
Zarqa Told the Times of Israel, “This is like a wave in our future life.”
Zaria Gorvett is a senior journalist for BBC Future and Tweets. @ZariaGorvett
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