State forecast shows COVID-19 spikes ending by Christmas

The deadly surge in COVID-19 infection, which began shortly before Independence Day, should be nearing its end around Christmas, a new state forecast said Thursday, October 14.

However, according to Oregon Health & Science University’s weekly forecast, it will take more than two months to reach the predicted endpoint, so about 177,000 more infections are expected in the state. Oregon Health Department said on Friday, October 15, COVID-19 hospitalizations continued to decline steadily in Oregon, with 563 infected patients admitted on Friday, of 1,178 recorded on September 1. He said it was less than half.

Hospital Region 7 covering eight counties in central Oregon, including Bend Falls and Klamath Falls. Hospitalization and mortality rates remain “stubbornly high” in this area. According to Friday’s OHA tally, St. Charles Bend has 70 COVID-19 patients, the highest in the state. We reported 11 COVID-19 patients in the intensive care unit. This is the second highest patient in the state. The Sky Lakes Medical Center in Klamath Falls has 25 COVID-19 patients, the fifth highest in the state.

The state-wide outbreak, which began in the first week of July and peaked shortly after Labor Day, has been steadily declining ever since, according to the report. The spikes were caused by a highly contagious delta variant.

However, projections predict that the state will still have 2.5 months to reach “herd immunity” in the delta variant. According to OHSU, that is when 85% of the population is vaccinated or exposed to the virus. A university virus modeling project in which Oregon arrives at that time around December 26th.

Meanwhile, another 177,000 infections are projected to occur in Oregon. This is enough to fill the University of Oregon’s Ozen Stadium three times.

According to the OHA Weekly Report released on October 13, the number of “breakthrough” infections in vaccinated people has increased, accounting for 27.2% of new infections. This is one of the reasons federal and state health authorities have come to approve booster immunity. Vaccine shots for those who have already been vaccinated.

However, during the surge, severe cases requiring hospitalization and death remained low among vaccinated people compared to unvaccinated people.

Vaccinated patients account for less than 5% of hospitalizations and less than 1% of deaths.

“We still have time to take action to prevent and vaccinate, but we predict that more people will be infected next month,” said Peter Grave, director of the OHSU Advanced Office of Advanced. Stated. analysis.

Oregon recorded 610 deaths in September. This is the highest monthly total since the pandemic arrived in the state in late February 2020.

OHSU said increased vaccination has helped reduce this, including those motivated by the deadlines of state and federal employee obligations.

The state’s “Immune Index” shows that 22% of Oregons remain vulnerable to the virus and are not vaccinated or exposed to the virus by others.

“Many people have been infected in the last three months, making it difficult to find people who are susceptible to the virus,” says Grave.

Graven said a large pool of unvaccinated Oregons remains, but could eventually be admitted to the hospital. But the worst is about to end.

“The virus finds a constantly shrinking pool of sensitive hosts, which should ease the serious burden on hospitals,” Graven said. “It will be increasingly difficult to create a new surge in hospitalization.”

Patients with COVID-19 accounted for 24% of all cases in intensive care units throughout the state as of October 12. At the peak of the spike, it occupied more than 50% of the ICU capacity.

OHSU reports that Oregons tend to be fed up with precautions such as wearing masks and avoiding gathering outside the home or in large groups, which can slow down the timeline. there is.

Although numerous deaths have been reported recently, death is the last indicator of a surge or plunge. Current numbers are projected to decline as hospitalizations and infectious diseases have already declined.

The positive rate of the test continues to decline slowly. OHA reported a state-wide rate of 7.3% on Friday. According to OHA officials, less than 5% is when the number of new infections is within control.

Portland Tribune and its parent, Pamplin Media Group, are KOIN6 Media Partners.