The numbers look good, but be vigilant

Predicting the course of the COVID-19 pandemic is similar to predicting the stock market. After a huge surge, we are now in the fourth valley. Many predict the achievement of herd immunity and the disappearance of pandemics, similar to the decline in previous infectious diseases. Herd immunity was predicted to be acquired in the spring of 2021 after the rapid increase in winter vacation. This prediction was supported by a CDC study that found that 83% of blood contained SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Donated specimen.. Of course, Delta shattered these hopes and caused a fourth catastrophic wave in August and September of this year. There is no guarantee, but I hope the advocates of herd immunity are right after this fourth surge.

There are several reasons for optimism. First of all, the number of cases is decreasing rapidly in the United States. More people are exposed to the virus and vaccinated, which should further strengthen our herd immunity.Second, according to outbreak.info There seems to be no dominant strain occurring. Even the dreaded DeltaPlus strain (AY.4.2) doesn’t seem to have a foothold.

This was not the case in June 2021, when the alpha variant case plummeted. The new variant, the Delta subspecies, still has a small number of cases, Superiority and number.. By the end of June 2021, the total number of SARS-CoV-2 cases was still very small, but delta mutants increased exponentially, accounting for about 30% of all sequenced cases.

Many people are now worried about the Delta plus variant (AY.4.2). It has been reported to be 10% to 15% more infectious, Antigenic escape characteristics.. However, this variant has been detected in the United States since mid-July and has not yet seen significant growth in the face of the predominant Delta variant.

However, analyzing the course of the disease in other countries raises concerns.It must be stated that poor countries lack testing capabilities and infrastructure Accurate report.. Underreporting is very common. In Russia, the official death toll is approaching 250,000, Moscow TimesExcessive deaths by the end of July was 600,000.. The same amount of underreporting has been reported in India, with an estimated actual death toll in July between 1.5 and 5. Million people.. However, the UK and Israeli data are accurate and appear to reflect the seriousness of the pandemic.

In the United Kingdom, cases of delta variants surged at the beginning of July 17, 2021 and then rapidly declined in half. Then, on October 28, 2021, the number of cases increased with the Delta plus variant, reaching another peak at about the same height as in July. This raised concerns that under certain conditions, the Delta Plus variant could compete well with the Delta variant and cause another surge in the United States.

Immunization rates are also a concern. The United States is fully vaccinated with 58% of the population and the United Kingdom is fully vaccinated. The vaccination rate is 68%.. Overall, the complete immunization rate of the US population is 52 worldwide, lagging behind most European countries. Portugal has 86% of its population fully vaccinated and the UAE has 88% of its population vaccinated.

Moreover, the United States has not yet followed good public health advice. In many areas, masks are not widely used indoors, and the anti-vaccine movement still disinformation and discourages vaccination. Last weekend, a large anti-Baxer convention was held at the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center in Tennessee. None of the participants were reported to be wearing masks, despite the listing of unvaccinated individuals throughout the hotel. Must wear them..

Infection Control Today® It has been reported that SARS-CoV-2 is prevalent in the past, Find an animal host This provides ample opportunity for the virus to mutate and avoid the vaccine. Laboratory tests that predict the effectiveness of vaccines and immunity often do not take into account the increased viral load of patients when infected with these more infectious variants. Therefore, laboratory tests may not truly predict resistance to future mutations.

So, as of today, the outlook is very good and the pandemic is on track for burnout, but there is legitimate concern that vigilance and public health strategies need to be continued to limit the rate of the virus. there is.