Health
SARS-CoV-2 mutants such as delta with enhanced transmissibility can cause more serious pandemics
SARS-CoV-2 variant with similar properties to the delta variant-; improved transmission and ability to infect previously infected / vaccinated individuals-; more infections and breakthrough infections than variants / Causes a more serious pandemic with reinfection According to a mathematical model created by researchers at Harvard TH Chan Public Health School, only with either characteristic.
Published online on Cell on November 19, 2021, their work was tailored to different scenarios by researchers and public health authorities interpreting the importance of new and existing variants and based on the characteristics of the variants. Helps design public health responses.
So far, evidence of immune avoidance-; the ability of mutants to evade the immune system and cause reinfection or breakthrough infections-; has been a danger signal. According to our findings, it’s probably like a yellow flag-; it’s not that big of a deal in itself. But when it is combined with enhanced transmissibility, it can be a really big problem. “
Mary Bushman, co-author of Cell Paper and postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Epidemiology at Harvard Chan School
As the COVID pandemic progressed, the first wild-type SARS-CoV-2 virus variants emerged. Some, such as the Alpha and Delta variants, quickly became the predominant strain and increased the number of infections, while others, such as Beta, were unable to maintain the pandemic orbit or had a significant impact. I have. To understand the impact of specific factors on pandemics, Bushman explains how pandemics caused by virtual mutations affect populations using different combinations of masking and physical distance. I created a model that simulates this.
The analysis simulated the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic with several different virtual variants containing a combination of the two properties. Partial antigenic escape similar to beta. Similar to the delta variant, partial immune avoidance improves transmissibility. A variant that has neither characteristic. The analysis also considered how certain variables such as masking / physical distance and vaccination affect the pandemic trajectory. For each scenario, researchers analyzed the total number of infections and the number / percentage of infections avoided by vaccination.
Bushman and their team have determined that only mutants with enhanced transmissibility are more likely to be more dangerous than mutants that can partially evade the immune system. However, variants with both traits can cause more infections, reinfections, and breakthrough infections than variants with only one trait.
According to the model, in the case of delta-like mutants, vaccination prevents more cases that a more contagious virus can cause and significantly reduces the milder nature of breakthrough infections. Also expected to be very beneficial overall mortality.
Bill Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology and co-author of the cell paper, said: “Even if you can’t get rid of the virus, you can be assured that people will face it with the best possible preparation. The higher the infection rate of the virus, the more people will benefit from it in the absence of vaccination. You can receive it. “
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Journal reference:
Bushman, M. , et al. (2021) Effects of SARS-CoV-2 mutants with enhanced transmissibility and / or partial immune avoidance on the population. cell. doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2021.11.026..
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