How to think about risk.

In 2019, my main concern when booking a vacation trip is what is the best day of the week to win a deal with a plane ticket? In 2021 … More complicated.. Our calculations include local vaccination and case rates, types of masks worn on airplanes, and timing of COVID tests.

Of course, we’re trying to avoid getting a COVID, but that shouldn’t be a problem. My 3-year-old child has not been vaccinated, but the risk to him is very low. Everyone else in the family is vaccinated and the risk caused by a breakthrough infection is less certain, but still low. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in September, vaccinated people 1 chance every 25,000 times You may be hospitalized for COVID. These odds are much higher for the elderly and medically vulnerable, and much lower for young and healthy people.For now, for many Breakthrough infections that is Genuine but weatherproof..Yes, long COVID is still a concern, but there is new evidence that vaccines may reduce the risk of developing symptoms. Up to half (Science is Far from a solution).

We also acknowledge that “trying to avoid getting a COVID” may be one of the causes of the loss. We go to the airport with strangers in one of the busiest travel weeks of the year and then stay in close contact with our families.It may not be a problem for my partner or a healthy vaccinated person who jumps out into the world like me If There will be a groundbreaking case, when.. The summer outbreak in Provincetown, Massachusetts suggested that breakthrough infections were more common than previously thought. But they also showed how well vaccines work to prevent bad consequences. In the months that followed, you’ve probably heard that people in your circle are infected with COVID and are sick but okay. Maybe you got it yourself. If this is your experience, you may not feel that Thanksgiving is such a big risk. This feeling is certainly prevalent among those who have a microphone.Experts seek based on the relatively low risk posed by breakthroughs to most people Relaxing notes Like closing classrooms and masking indoors, and more broadly, begging for a return to “normal.”

Wouldn’t it be nice if each could be done? Personally, decide when the pandemic will end, And do each do their own calculations? But it’s not that simple. There are many who are unable to opt out of such a pandemic — and their health is inherently associated with our other people.Talked to Chantel MarshallPeople who live with rheumatoid arthritis and have less vaccine protection than those without a condition. Marshall understands the frustration that many feel living in an ongoing pandemic. But for her and millions of other immunocompromised people, the breakthrough is not a nuisance, but a potentially serious concern. “The idea that the community is happening is clearly lost, and people are doing something for the community, not for themselves,” Marshall said. The wider community includes healthcare professionals who can spend January taking care of holiday delights in the ICU. “I don’t think there are any nurses in my organization who have been caring for COVID patients for a long time, but no one feels they think this is over.” Joseph FarriesI told me that I was the ICU Nurse Manager at Miami University Hospital and a board member of the American Association of Critical Care Nurses.

What you do after Thanksgiving can affect these more vulnerable groups. “Even if you know everyone, you need to know that getting together in a group is risky.” Julia LifemanA professor of health law, policy, and administration at Boston University’s School of Public Health told me, even if everyone was vaccinated. If a vaccinated person brings the virus to Thanksgiving, there is a good chance that it will infect others, given the crowded intimate holiday gatherings. These settings help prevent infection to other vaccinated people.Can be as low as 34 percent (Thank you, Delta). And those who attend the rally may return to friend groups, childcare facilities, and workplaces to further spread the virus. What this means is that extensive holiday gatherings contribute to the number of winter cases, even among vaccinated families, and this is a really important part, putting vulnerable people at risk.

This is scary and frustrating.And maybe these facts put you in a camp of people who think it’s just wild Many of the countries are heading for holiday gatherings as if the pandemic was over.Maybe these facts made you personal Very afraid to get a COVIDNot because of your health, but because of what a COVID contract means for a larger project of stopping a pandemic, or because “getting a COVID” means emotionally to you. But it needs to flock to homes where healthy and vaccinated people are afraid or worried about catching COVID (which can be distinguished from “catching and spreading COVID”). I don’t think it means there is. .. What that means is to bring the toolkits and knowledge needed to manage COVID risk to both yourself and others.While still alive.. After all, social isolation has real mental health implications and economic costs to society.

Thanks to vaccines, quick tests and high quality masks, it is possible to get together relatively safely and fairly responsibly for the holidays. (It is also possible to lament the patchwork of incomplete policies that make these individual decisions very difficult and tricky. Imagine a quick diagnostic at home. It was free!! ) You have to assume that you will be infected with COVID at some point and that your loved one will someday be infected with COVID. By acknowledging this reality, you can use the tool most effectively. Once infected, you can quickly find it and take action. Dramatically reduce numbers Of those who may spread the virus.

COVID is a way to deal with so many dangers in modern life, not the risk we should live with by trying to push it out from the bottom of our hearts. People often compare the risk of COVID to the risk of driving. “You see far more car accidents than any of the numbers we’re talking about,” said then President Donald. Trump said in March 2020.. “That doesn’t mean I’m telling everyone not to drive anymore, so we have to do something to open the country.” This analogy is the right way to go. Driving is dangerous and many of us do it every day.But compare the risk of COVID today with the risk of driving today Not completely correct. Driving was much more dangerous than before. 1960s, before regulation, 140 people died per day From car crashes, and people realized it was a problem. America is increasingly equipped with motors, and cities and lives are organized around cars. Roughly speaking, driving becomes an “endemic”, and what COVID should be … in the end …

When it comes to road safety, we didn’t raise our hand and accepted these high risks. Also, I didn’t give up driving completely. Instead, we found a compromise. Designed a safer road. Manufactured a safer car. Mandated seat belts. (And yes, in the meantime we drove.) In the United States, these innovations and regulatory measures have cut per capita deaths by half and saved millions of lives around the world. I did. The same applies to COVID. Instead of engineering innovations, there are biomedical innovations such as vaccines, antivirals, and monoclonal antibodies. Instead of road design, there is building design, that is, better ventilation. There is a mask instead of a seat belt.One of the less useful tools here is overkill anxiety If you do, about getting a sense of COVID or shame: If you’re worried, precautions won’t work anymore.

Also note that “sufficient” precautions are slightly subjective and situation-dependent. The risk reductions for this holiday season may seem a bit different to everyone.It may make sense to reduce the number of people at your holiday gathering, or Limited to vaccination, Please do not cancel. If the weather is nice, it may mean eating outdoors or breaking windows. If you can find them (and can afford them), that may mean using quick tests before collecting them. It may mean reducing your own exposure and having a PCR test before and after your trip. That may mean upgrading to a better mask for travel — and encourage others to do so. Reasonable people can disagree about which precautions are most effective for them, but if we all put our thoughts and efforts into it, it would be of great help. Also, attending a rally using some guardrails does not prevent you from advocating better policies, donating to your organization, or volunteering. Not vaccinated, but may want to be vaccinated— Includes low-income families, precarious food and housing, and disabled people.

It is impossible to make a bulletproof plan for COVID. It is fine. But that also doesn’t mean you need to act like 2019. When you realize that risk reduction is possible, you need to take precautions when you return to the community after the festival. You also need to plan how your family will be isolated. If one of you is positive on the test. The important thing is not to try to perfect this ourselves. The important thing is for each of us to do what we can and then let go.