Cases of California coronavirus rising with signs of winter surge

Health officials in many counties in California have stated that cases of coronavirus associated with Thanksgiving show early signs of rebound.

It is not yet clear whether California will see a significant surge in this winter’s case, or whether the combination of relatively high vaccination rates and various safety rules will limit the scope of the surge.

But there are already signs of warning.

Throughout the state, the daily average of newly reported infectious diseases has risen by more than 30% since before Thanksgiving. The number of Californians hospitalized for COVID-19 also increased in the meantime, interrupting weeks of an almost steady decline.

And the appearance of greatly mutated things Omicron variant of coronavirus Officials say they dominate the recent pandemic discourse and are still fighting the highly infectious delta mutants that continue to explain virtually all new cases throughout the state.

Authorities and experts often say that it will take several weeks before the extent of the impact of a particular activity on a coronavirus infection becomes apparent.

Santa Clara CountyThe most populous of Northern California reports the highest weekly coronavirus case rates since mid-September, according to a Times analysis of state data.

“So we’re going to pay attention to this, but we may go into our fifth wave, the swell, the surge. We’re waiting to see what it is. “Masu,” Dr. Sarah Cody, a local health officer and director of public health, told the county’s supervisory board.

Alameda County, the second most populous county in Northern California, has seen a 33% increase in coronavirus cases over the past two weeks.

“It may be the beginning of a winter increase in some cases. We will keep an eye on it,” said county health officer Dr. Nicholas Moss.

Health officials in the San Diego, Ventura, and Marin counties also made similar observations this week.

Dr. Wilma Uten, San Diego County Health Officer, said: “Cases can continue to grow and can grow during holidays and winter months.”

San Diego County According to a Times analysis, we recently reported the highest weekly case rate since the end of October.

of Ventura County, Coronavirus cases have increased in the last few days.

“The number on weekends and yesterday has begun to increase,” Rigobert Vargas, director of public health in Ventura County, said on Tuesday.

Based on the date the test was conducted and the time when the symptoms were first reported, Vargas suspects that the infection may have increased during Thanksgiving weekend. Weekly cases have doubled in the last two weeks.

However San Francisco Dr. Grant Corfax, director of health, wasn’t sure if there was a surge in his city.

“It’s probably too early to detect a significant post-Thanksgiving holiday surge, but we’re watching this very carefully,” he told the health commissioner.

Overall, in the week ending November 23, California reported an average of 5,000 new coronavirus cases per day. In the week ending on Tuesday, that number increased to about 6,600 per day.

Number of Person who was hospitalized For COVID-19 on Tuesday — 3,356 — was about 8% higher than the numbers recorded two weeks ago.

However, it’s still unclear if these two-week snapshots will turn into a more permanent trend. Also, it is unclear how the fifth coronavirus surge will affect California as a whole.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, which boasts the highest vaccination rate in the state, hospitalization may not increase significantly due to the large number of people being vaccinated, even with more reported cases, some health Authorities are suspicious.

According to the data compiled by The Times Residents of Marin County It is fully vaccinated at all ages and 89% have been vaccinated at least once.

in the meantime Appearance of Delta Having eroded some of the vaccine’s ability to slow the spread of the coronavirus, health officials note that shots continue to be very effective in preventing severe illness. As a result, the catastrophic domino effect of the previous surge may not land in areas with strong vaccination coverage, with an increasing number of cases that cause a corresponding increase in hospitalizations and ultimately death.

That is my experience in Marin County. As vaccination became widely available earlier this year, COVID-19 hospitalizations are no longer increasing as well, according to county health officer Dr. Matt Willis.

“Fortunately, the high vaccination rate separates the relationship between cases and serious illness,” Willis said. Said..

Other counties with high vaccination rates have made similar observations, with locations such as the Bay Area not as rapidly increasing COVID-19 mortality associated with delta mutations as other low-vaccination areas in California. It states.

“Our very high immunization rates kept us safer and slowed the increase in deaths,” Cody said. Santa Clara County, 79% of residents are fully vaccinated and 86% are vaccinated at least once.

However, Fresno CountyHealth officials are preparing for the possibility of a severe winter wave, as only 56% of the population are fully vaccinated and 63% are vaccinated at least once.

In other parts of the state, amnesty was seen after the peak of the summer delta, but in hospitals in the San Joaquin Valley. Overwhelmed for months — And the region continues to be of particular concern to state officials heading into the winter.

“Now we have more non-COVID patients in the hospital, and how much can we absorb up to COVID patients?” California epidemiologist Dr. Ericapan said. Talk Sponsored by California Medical Asun.

California is still in a better position than most states. Coronavirus infections are at high levels, but are the worst category in the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 4-layer scale — The state has the ninth lowest weekly coronavirus infection rate of all states.

However, the situation in other parts of the country is deteriorating and it is unlikely that California will be spared from the fluctuations of these countries.

In New York, for example, the weekly coronavirus infection rate is about three times higher than in California, and Governor Kathy Hokul recently said. Disaster emergency..

“COVID hospitalizations are on the rise. The number of beds is decreasing, and that’s a real problem,” Hochul said. Said After Thanksgiving.

Nationally, the weekly average of newly reported coronavirus cases has risen from about 94,500 per day just before Thanksgiving to over 117,000 as of Tuesday. CDC data show..

And that’s before adding the widespread influence from the Omicron variant.

San Francisco The first confirmed case of Omicron in Japan Since December 1, 10 cases have been recorded across the state. There are 6 in Alameda County and 5 in Los Angeles County.Scientists also say that Omicron Found in wastewater In Sacramento and Merced counties.

Health officials warn that there are many uncertainties about Omicron and how it could change the pandemic’s trajectory.But scientists around the world Work enthusiastically To get those answers.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s Chief Medical Advisor for Pandemics, said: “Real-world evidence is literally rapidly accumulating daily, allowing us to determine the increasing number of cases, the potential for increased reproductive count, and the rapid replacement of Delta by Omicron in certain situations.”

As one of the promising developments, there are some preliminary signs that Omicron may not make the host as ill as other coronavirus strains. However, Fauci emphasized the need for further research.

At a briefing on Tuesday, “Severity, hospitalization, and death are always late indicators, and I think it will take at least another two weeks before we can deal with them well, and then we will be able to deal with them really well for the next few weeks.” Said. “That’s why we shouldn’t draw definitive conclusions. Certainly not the next few weeks ago.”

Authorities say the best way to protect against Omicron is to adopt measures that have proven effective against other varieties. Wear a mask in a crowded environment, especially indoors. And most importantly, get vaccinated or boosted when you qualify.

“We have found that we are in a much better position than last year,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC. “By working on other variants such as Delta, we gain knowledge and experience and have access to far more science, tools and treatment options.”

One optimistic view is the growing demand for booster shots among fully vaccinated people, not only in the San Francisco Bay Area and Southern California, but also in the Central Valley.

Pfizer and its vaccine partner BioNTech announced Wednesday in their first lab study. suggestion That three doses of their vaccine may provide strong protection against Omicron. According to both companies, two doses may not be sufficient to prevent infection from Omicron, but two doses can prevent serious illness.

In the Bay Area, the demand for shots and appointments is so high that elected officials have argued with public health authorities about the difficulty of securing shots.

Throughout the state, one-third of fully vaccinated Californians eligible for boosters have received additional vaccinations since sufficient time has passed since the first vaccination, and are 65 years of age or older. As many as 56% of the elderly in California.

“That’s good; we still need to make progress. Some of our modeling really wants to help 40%, 50% and 60% of people to really deal with weakened immunity. It shows that, “Pan said.