How much do we need to worry about, and will Christmas be canceled?

It’s about a week before Christmas Omicron variant There is a new concern that the holiday season will be interrupted for the second year in a row, with a sharp increase day by day. This is what we know about the case so far and whether we need more restrictions.

How worried are the numbers?

Omicron cases are much faster than Delta and double every 2-3 days. An additional 1,239 omicron cases were reported in the United Kingdom on Sunday, bringing the total to 3,137. Putting this in context, only three cases were identified two weeks ago.

Scientists predict that by the middle of this month it will be the predominant variant in the UK. The UK Health and Safety Agency states that by the end of this month, one million infections could occur daily. This is a higher number than confirmed cases because many people are unknowingly infected, but this is based on modeling when it occurs. There were no restrictions and people continued as usual.

Nevertheless, even if only a small proportion of people with Omicron are seriously affected, the magnitude of the infection means going to the hospital and dying rather than Delta. Therefore, the infection rate is very concerned.

Dr. Susan Hopkins, Chief Medical Advisor at UKHSA, said on Sunday that Omicron is a “big wave” that “comes straight to us.”

How serious is the case?

For the first time in the UK, two weeks after the first case was confirmed, people with the Omicron variant were hospitalized. However, this is only a small number out of over 3,000 and is promising so far.

And it’s unclear if the Omicron variants hospitalized them or for other reasons. I don’t know if they were vaccinated or how old they are.

Until the details of these types are known, it is premature to say whether Omicron causes a disease that is dramatically milder than Delta. In South Africa, there have been consistent reports of less severe hospitalizations in Omicron and fewer patients requiring oxygen over the past three weeks.

However, it cannot yet be concluded that this is a “mild mutation” because early cases are likely to be younger, more active in the population, and take 2-3 weeks for people to be hospitalized. ..

Will the Omicron wave lead to overwhelming NHS?

This depends on four factors: how serious Omicron is compared to Delta, how quickly booster deployment occurs, how current Plan B limits reduce the number of daily cases, and The new “Plan C” is a more advanced measure. Even if Omicron is half as severe, that is, 10 out of 20 in Delta are hospitalized, a large number of cases will result in more patients hospitalized overall.

In the three scenarios modeled by the London School of Economics and Tropical Medicine, the most optimistic forecast is that January daily hospitalizations are 2,400, more than half of last January’s peak. In the worst-case scenario, more than 7,000 hospitalizations per day are expected, almost doubling last winter’s peak and almost certainly overwhelming the NHS.

The government plans to speed up the deployment of booster shots after new evidence shows that the two jabs were not enough to stop the infection from Omicron. Plan B measures will be taken in some way, especially to reduce infections when working at home, Plan C It has a greater effect.

What about Christmas? Do you have Plan C?

Currently, there are no plans to stop the government from mixing households during the festival, but this cannot be ruled out, especially if there is evidence that Omicron is not significantly more serious than Delta.

Possible Plan C measures, such as 10 days of isolation for all contact of the Covid Case, the addition of masks indoors, check-in and table service in hospitality settings, are weeks, if not days. It may be done within. But this still allows the family to mix in for Christmas.

If Omicron’s severity data deteriorates and the NHS is at risk of reaching its limits, a ban on household mixing, or even a complete blockade, could be introduced, but this could be after Christmas. I have.