Alabama coronavirus cases surge to new high as state reopens

Alabama hit an all-time high this week in its seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases, as the state neared the two-week mark since Gov. Kay Ivey reopened most businesses.

“We’ve had this week a couple of the highest days we’ve seen in number of cases, and that’s certainly concerning to us,” said State Health Officer Dr. Scott Harris on Thursday. New cases topped 400 on Thursday for the fifth time in the last seven days.

“Some of that can reflect increases in numbers of tests being performed,” he said, “but I certainly don’t think that accounts for all of it.

“I think we continue to have disease transmission at a community level throughout many parts of the state, in addition to some hot spots.”

Restaurants, bars and entertainment venues were allowed to open on May 11, but that reopening has been followed by a steady rise in new cases.

Alabama added nearly 700 cases on Tuesday, May 26, following the Memorial Day weekend. It’s unclear if some of those 700 results were delayed in being reported because of the holiday, but the running seven-day average would be unaffected.

Dr. Rachael Lee, a hospital epidemiologist at UAB, said she is concerned about the continued rise.

“Part of that (rise in cases) may be due to relaxing some restrictions,” she said Thursday. “Part of it may be not wearing masks in public, or having larger events, which is what we would be concerned about from Memorial Day weekend.”

Earlier in the epidemic, new coronavirus cases decreased following statewide restrictions. New coronavirus cases in Alabama started falling around 10 days after Gov. Kay Ivey issued a stay-at-home order on April 4. The seven-day average fell to a low of 171 new cases on April 30, the same day Ivey replaced the stay-at-home order with a modified safer-at-home order.

[Can’t see the chart? Click here.]

But new cases have risen steadily since then, reaching a new high in seven-day average on May 7. In the last several days, the increase has accelerated.

“My concern is after Memorial Day weekend, where we had looser restrictions, that we’ll continue to see a rise in cases,” said Lee. “If we aren’t careful, that can overrun our healthcare systems.”

Since the start of the lockdown, there have been a few hotspots, as some counties were hit harder than other. But no hospitals in Alabama reported being overrun with COVID-19 patients, and some reported few patients at all last month. However, as cases rose in Montgomery this month, local officials last week said they were transferring patients to Birmingham. In Tuscaloosa, Mayor Walt Maddox has been tweeting about a small surge in patients this week.

Montgomery added by far the most cases over the last two weeks with 719 and is on pace to soon pass the cumulative total in much larger Jefferson County. Tuscaloosa County added the fourth most.

[Can’t see the chart? Click here.]

Several smaller counties also added significant virus cases during the last 14 days.

Franklin County, in northwest Alabama, is home to just 30,000 people, but saw 203 new virus cases in the last two weeks. At least 48 of those were linked to one nursing home. Walker County, just northwest of Jefferson, added 171, many of which were attributable to one workplace, said Harris today.

Just 10,000 people live in Bullock County, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. It’s added by far the most virus cases per capita in Alabama over the last two weeks. Its case rate is 146.5 new cases for every 10,000 people over the last 14 days. Bullock, near Montgomery, is one of a number of counties in and around the Black Belt seeing cases climb quickly in May.

[Can’t see the map? Click here.]

Lowndes County, also in the Black Belt, added 98 cases over the last two weeks, or roughly 100.8 per 10,000 people – the second highest rate over that time. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Lowndes has shown the highest total infection rate per capita in the state, though Bullock could soon pass it.

Despite a rise in cases, Harris said there’s not a hard number that would trigger another health order restricting movement or businesses.

“Clearly the numbers are very concerning to us as we see deaths and clusters of hot spots,” he said. Some have not taken personal responsibility seriously enough, he said. “We’re working on trying to help the public retrain themselves, modify their behavior.”

As the state continues to open for business, people need to be “more careful than ever,” said Harris, particularly because a high percentage of Alabamians have health problems like heart disease or diabetes that make them more vulnerable to serious complications from COVID-19.

“Unfortunately, Alabama is not a healthy state overall,” said Harris. “When we talk about people with chronic health problems, we’re talking about a large number of Alabamians we want to protect.”

“I think that we as Americans need to be prepared that we may see another wave of infections in the fall, and potentially be prepared that we may have to shelter in place again, if that’s necessary,” said Lee.

If Alabamians take precautions now, she said, they can decrease the chance of another wave of infections.

“If we get lax in our mask-wearing and we want to enjoy the summer and have large gatherings at our house or at restaurants, then those (infection) numbers, even though they were declining, will go back up,” she said.