Health
When will British Columbia hospitals be overwhelmed by Omicron cases?
No matter what is happening now, hospitalization with COVID-19 is expected to overwhelm capacity in January, an independent group of researchers said. They say BC needs to accelerate its booster campaign to combat the record surge in the Omicron case.
Record increases in COVID-19 cases with Omicron variants will bring “extreme” demand to British Columbia hospitals in January, according to the latest predictions from an independent modeling group.
The BC COVID-19 Modeling Group consists of 13 experts in Infectious Diseases, Mathematics, and Data, many from top state universities such as UBC, SFU, and UVic.
Their latest analysisAlthough not peer-reviewed, the Vancouver Coastal and Fraser Health Areas have seen the largest surges in recent weeks. And it is expected to get worse.
“If the infection does not decrease significantly, we expect the number of cases to exceed 1 in 1,000 in the coming weeks,” the report notes, pointing to an increase in the number of cases at Vancouver Coastal Health.
On Wednesday, cases surged to 1,474 BC. Best daily total Since the pandemic began.
According to the modeling group, the growth rate of Omicron cases is estimated to be 23-29 percent per day. At that infection rate, cases double approximately every three days.
More data is needed to estimate how Omicron is growing in the state’s Northern Health, Interior Health, or Island Health regions, according to the report.
Using limited data, some early reports around the world show that Omicron variants are less likely to cause more serious health consequences than Delta variants. However, the BC COVID-19 Modeling Group states that the severity remains uncertain.
They model three scenarios that explore how Omicron affects the healthcare system. Between Delta and Omicron.
In both cases, hospital capacity was overwhelmed by January, increasing from 187 hospitalizations on 22 December to well over 600 to 1,600.
After January, the model will begin to collapse. This is because it is difficult to predict the effectiveness of new public health measures and the behavior of the public in the face of the current Omicron wave.
Public health measures have worked in the past, but have not been tested against such virulent strains of the SAR-CoV-2 virus.
Another big unknown is how much of the BC population had immunity to Omicron upon arrival, and how the immunity of those who have recovered from the mutant affects infection.
Researchers add that tracking the increase in Omicron variants will be challenged by data outages during vacations. The growing popularity of self-managed rapid antigen testing, 11 million of which have been requested by the British Columbia government, will make case recording difficult, the report said.
In any case, the model agrees with one thing: BC is facing the Omicron tsunami.
“We expect, regardless of the value of an unknown parameter [the] By mid-January, the number of inpatients will exceed the number previously seen in the pandemic, “the researchers write.
According to an independent group of scientists, all that is needed is to buy more time for booster immunization, which according to preliminary data. Reduce severe Omicron infections..
If all vaccinated British Columbia were boosted, the doubling time for Omicron cases would be up to 6.6 days and the peak demand for hospitals would be reduced by a factor of 160. say.
On Tuesday, state health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said the state is accelerating the deployment of boosters, but not until the New Year.
Some health authorities are working to establish a mass vaccination clinic after vacation. Other states, including Alberta, which announced that anyone over the age of 18 is eligible, have already distributed a number of boosters.
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