Is Covid at the stage of endemic disease?Experts explain what surges, falling cases suggest

this is, India As the country reported 17,336 cases a day, we witnessed a 30% surge in Covid-19 cases. According to the latest data from the Union Ministry of Health, the death toll has risen to 5,24,954 and 13 new deaths have been reported today.

Weekly case counts and positives from June 10 in Maharashtra, Kerala, Delhi, Karnataka, Tamirnadu, Hariyana, Uttar Pradesh, Telangana, West Bengal, Gujarat, Goa and Punjab. The rate is increasing.

According to official sources, 51 districts in India report weekly, including 12 districts from Kerala, 7 districts from Mizoram, and 5 districts each from Maharashtra and Assam. Covid positive rate 10% or more.

In 53 districts, including 10 districts in Rajasthan and 5 districts in Delhi, the weekly positive rate is 5-10%.

An infection is said to be population-specific if the infection is constantly maintained at the baseline level in the geographic area without external input.

Dr. Sanjay Rai, senior epidemiologist at AIIMS, said SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus that already has more than 1,000 mutations, even though there are only five variants of concern. rice field.

Experts attribute the increase in cases to Covid’s lack of proper behavior. They said that not wearing masks, increased travel and social interactions, and low intake of Covid vaccine boosters could probably be behind the increase.

Even in the case of Omicron variantThe mutation occurred in the receptor-binding domain, increasing the likelihood of reinfection and breakthrough infection, he told the news agency. PTI..

Dr. Lai, Principal Investigator for AIIMS’s adult and pediatric cobacxin trials, said the tendency for repeated increases in cases as the disease transitioned from a pandemic to endemic is a “general phenomenon.” Stated.

He said a significant increase in cases was not a source of concern unless there was an increase in severity and dramatic changes in hospitalizations and deaths.

“India witnessed a second wave of highly devastating Covid infections last year, which was very disappointing, but it led to the development of community-level innate immunity to SARS-CoV-2. I did.

“Global evidence shows that natural infections provide better, longer protection against COVID-19, and there was a high vaccination rate. Therefore, new variants are in existing innate immunity. It is unlikely that there will be a serious wave in the future until it can be invaded. It is causing serious illness. “

Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya, an epidemiologist and infectious disease doctor, said SARS-CoV-2 is as present as it was a few months ago.

“Therefore, the increase or decrease in the number of infections is highly expected due to the behavior of infections and respiratory illnesses, so the increase in cases is not all a reason for worry or worry,” he said. PTI..

It is also estimated that the majority of India’s adult population has received two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, and that the majority of all age groups have developed immunity after spontaneous infection, Dr. Lahariya said. ..

So people have developed hybrid immunity that provides protection from subsequent infections that result in symptomatic illness, he explained.

“Furthermore, 27 months after the pandemic, tracking new cases daily is not a good parameter to assess the spread. It simply reflects the presence of the virus and we already have it. I know that.

“It’s time to track Covid-related hospitalizations and serious clinical outcomes. If these parameters don’t change significantly, don’t worry,” Dr. Lahariya said.

He said that whether Covid became endemic or still pandemic has limited practical relevance.

“But it is fair to conclude that COVID-19 is no longer a population-level challenge and is now an individual risk. Therefore, government intervention needs to be more targeted at vulnerable people. It’s time to assess and determine the risks. The appropriate behavior of Covid they want to adopt. “

Dr. Samirampanda, additional secretary of the ICMR, said the surge in these cases remained confined to specific pockets within the district and was not considered a general increase in infections throughout the district or state. ..

“Fortunately, these occasional local uptrends are not associated with serious illness, hospitalization, and death.

However, masks can protect against not only Covid but also other illnesses such as tuberculosis and air pollution, “says Dr. Panda.

First article