Study: 7.8% of Orleans, Jefferson was infected with coronavirus. Almost half were asymptomatic | Coronavirus

A widely anticipated review of who may have been infected with the coronavirus found that only about 7% of the population in New Orleans and the Jefferson Parish had antibodies to this disease. Struck by a virus

This is one of the first studies to try to provide a snapshot of how many people infected with COVID-19 in the New Orleans area. The symptoms themselves.

The study selected 2,640 samples from a group of 25,000 volunteers and performed antibody tests and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests from May 11 to May 15.

About 6.86% of those tested had the antibody. Combined with active infections detected during that period, the researchers concluded that approximately 7.8% of the population of the two parishes is already infected with coronavirus.

Antibody tests show that participants had some exposure to the virus the previous month, but researchers aren’t sure how long the antibody will be present after infection. PCR tests diagnose active infections. According to the researchers, the Abbott antibody test used was 95% to 98% accurate. The PCR test, also performed by Abbott, is about 93% accurate the study..

The sample results suggest that the New Orleans area is not close to herd immunity. In this region, a large proportion of the population needs to be infected with the virus to prevent it from spreading widely.

The researchers also found a mortality rate of 1.63%. This means that reaching the herd’s immunity leads to even more deaths.

“We need 70-80% exposure to get the herd’s immunity,” said Amy Feehan, research-led research scientist at Oxner. “You do math, and it’s a lot of dead people.”

By comparison, mortality from influenza infections was between .04% and .16% over the last flu season, with coronaviruses 10 to 40 times more deadly than influenza.

Probably the most alarming finding: 40% of positive cases were asymptomatic at the time of testing, and 75% of the most infectious groups were asymptomatic in early-exposure people.

Dr. Robert Hart, Medical Director of Ochsner Health, said: “And they really don’t.”

Researchers have found that loss of olfaction and taste, a condition called anosmia, is associated with a 17-fold greater chance of becoming positive.

the study, Not yet published in medical journals and not yet peer-reviewed, Tracked status by zip code and race. Blacks were sick at 10.3% and white residents were 5.9%.

Based on both antibody and PCR tests, New Orleans East and West Bank were the hardest hit by the coronavirus during the test period. Jefferson Parish had hotspots during the testing period shortly after the city transitioned to Phase 1, based on PCR tests measuring active infections.

Although the herd’s immunity goes a long way across the two parishes, some of these heavily affected areas (New Orleans East and West Bank) reflect the potential of up to 25% of the infected population. There was a sample size.

“At this ratio, we can reach 50% 75% faster than expected,” says emerging disease expert Tulane virologist Robert Garry. “Some of those communities may reach herd immunity sooner than we thought.”

But naturally reaching the herd’s immunity is not ideal. According to Gully, the vaccine will be a better option, as it is likely to be developed by next year.

The study relied on volunteers targeted through digital advertising, which could have biased skewing the prevalence results, said Susan Hassig, a Tulane epidemiologist not involved in the study. ..

“People may decide to volunteer for a variety of reasons,” Hasig said. “Maybe they think they might have it. How the sample was drawn has something to do with the validity of the final numbers.”

The study authors wanted to test the spread of the virus in the community before the home order was lifted in mid-May, so they said there was a need for speed and method of sample collection.

Experts say that the percentage of actively infected people has changed since the samples were taken as companies ready to reopen.

“If anything, it’s gone,” Garry said. “You can see the numbers. It’s probably why we see an increase in the number of cases. Already, there’s a significant number of viruses circulating in the community.”

The study points out that we know very little about this virus. Dr. Joe Canter, a state aide to the Louisiana Department of Health, called the number of asymptomatic people in the sample “warning.”

“We continue to see people saying, “I don’t have to wear a mask, I feel good,” said Kanter. “These individuals lack a significant understanding of how this virus works. Things like this will become apparent in a day.”

Ochsner will work with the Baton Rouge Area Foundation to conduct a similar study in the Baton Rouge Area. This study will let researchers know how prevalent the virus is in 800,000 people, considering the test results of 2,500 people.

The authors of the study will also conduct a second sampling in the coming months to determine how Phases 1 and 2 affected the prevalence. If possible, I would like to reconsider whether some of the antibody-bearing volunteers still have them in the next few months. Recent evidence The antibody suggests that it may be detected for only a few months, especially in infected people who are asymptomatic.

This is a developing story. Please check later for details.