The world depends on chicken, and so does the bird flu virus

The bird flu outbreak that has ravaged the world’s poultry flocks is the worst since records began, causing egg prices to skyrocket, threatening free-range chickens and threatening long-term effects on animal health. .

The bird flu season traditionally begins each October, when migratory birds leave the cooler regions of the northern hemisphere with infected droppings and saliva.

This year, however, the warmer months have allowed cases to spread rapidly, causing the virus to overheat and prompt mass culling.

Poultry losses since October are nearly 70% higher than last year’s pace, reaching 16.1 million by December 1, according to the World Animal Health Organization.

Prior to that, more than 138 million birds were lost in the 12 months to September, more than in the previous five years combined, WOAH said.

In the US, UK and elsewhere, there is concern over seasonal specialties such as roast turkey dinners at Thanksgiving and Christmas.

But chicken is a staple of the world’s diet, and culling has curtailed supplies of products from eggs to foie gras, exacerbating food inflation that has hit consumer budgets this year.

Farmers are sounding the alarm because a vaccine could be years away.

“This is worse than it’s ever been and I think everyone is surprised,” said Mark Gorton, managing director of Traditional Norfolk Poultry in the East of England, which has lost 15% of its flock since September. Told.

“This is not just a UK problem, it’s a global problem. We have to sort it out.”

Around 35 billion birds are raised on farms around the world to meet demand for affordable chicken that has doubled since 1999.

This year’s cost of living crisis has further boosted sales as consumers ditch beef for cheaper options.

The epidemic accelerated just as farmers grappled with rising energy and feed costs.

With growth under pressure, global poultry production will likely increase by about 1% this year and next, below the historical norm of 2.5%, said Nan-Dirk Mulder, an animal protein expert at Rabobank. Stated.

Bird flu can spread to tractors and feed, and often has fatal effects on farmed birds, as flocks are quickly culled when sick.

Chickens raised for meat are slaughtered after about six weeks, so they may be less susceptible to infection, but larger, older birds and laying hens are severely affected.

As a result, the retail price of eggs in the US has doubled in one year, and the price of ovenable chicken in the UK has risen by more than a quarter.

It is also a global problem. Malaysia imports eggs because feed prices are forcing local farmers to cut back.

The flu has killed millions of ducks on French farms in the last two winters. Minnesota-based Hormel Foods, which raises turkey for lunch meat and roasts, expects production to decline at least early next year.

Importers often restrict purchases from infected areas.

“This is one big problem on top of all the others,” said Birthe Steenberg, Executive Director of European poultry group AVEC.

WOAH’s head of science, Gregorio Torres, said that after 2021, cases would not be scattered over the summer as usual. Wild birds are now permanently infected, compromising the health of poultry they encounter and increasing the risk of endangered species.

Researchers are trying to understand why, Torres said.

Viruses can evolve rapidly to become more effective disease spreaders.

The agency is also investigating whether climate change plays a role as temperatures rise and migration routes change.

However, this virus is not new and has been flagged before.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza has been found on most continents since the mid-1900s.

A wave originating in Asia in 2003 caused widespread losses, but were more than offset by tolls in 2021-22.

According to the World Health Organization, fewer than 10 people have been infected with the currently dominant H5N1 strain since 2018, and human infections are rare.

Controlling wild bird migration is a daunting feat, and the scale of recent outbreaks means that traditional biosecurity measures, from barn access restrictions and vehicle washing to rapid culling, are ‘no longer enough’. is shown.

“Bird flu in 2022-2023 will be different.

Not all are severely affected.

Although the current outbreak in Asia is relatively contained, Japan detected cases earlier than ever before, and about 20 farms in South Korea, which faced egg shortages during previous outbreaks, were infected.

Brazil, the world’s largest poultry shipping country, has also remained flu-free, but recent cases in nearby Ecuador and Colombia have prompted moves to prevent the virus from crossing borders.

Consumers are becoming more and more picky, and opting for free-range bird products allows them to take their time wandering around rather than being confined indoors.

While that’s good for animals, it increases the risk of encountering infected wildlife.

As a result, the virus has hit many outdoor growers hard.

Britain locked down all poultry in November, killing 40% of free-range turkeys raised for Christmas dinners in the UK.

Gorton said the disease can get worse quickly and can wipe out a herd four to five days after the first symptoms.

Farms require thorough cleaning after infection and can be left unattended for up to six months.

Farmers are looking for fresh solutions to ward off passing birds in bright light from screens that protect outdoor poultry. Vaccine trials are underway in Europe and he estimates it will take at least two years to reach the market, according to AVEC’s Steenberg.