The number of children with type 2 diabetes could increase by 700% over the next 30 years

Researchers used mathematical models and data from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study, funded by CDC and the National Institutes of Health (NIH).

The researchers explain that they considered two different scenarios when making their predictions. Beata LeidigerRHN, a Los Angeles, CA-based registered dietitian and clinical nutrition advisor for Zen Nutrients. they were:

1. A scenario in which the number of new infections from 2017 to 2060 matches the current rate.
2. A scenario in which the number of new cases in this period increases at the same rate as 2002-2017.

But one expert says the study’s design was flawed, leading to very high predictions.

“The problem is that when the confidence intervals are wide, that is, when there is variation in the data, the predictions are significantly on the higher side,” he says. Dr. Benjamin U. Nuwos, FAAP, Chief of Endocrinology, Cohen Children’s Medical Center, New York. “They failed to stratify the children into obese and non-obese groups.”

Instead, researchers looked at non-modifiable risk factors such as race and ethnicity. If you divide the two groups into obese and non-obese, Nwosu does not expect an increase in cases in the group of non-obese children, because obesity is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes.

“We need predictive studies that focus on modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors that provide biological factors that policymakers can easily address,” Nwosu said.

I don’t know yet if the predictions are off. But if they’re right, the CDC notes that a number of factors may be responsible for the surge, including childhood obesity and an increase in maternal diabetes, the latter of which increases the risk of diabetes in children. .

2022 survey It shows that the proportion of kindergarten children with healthy body mass index (BMI) decreased from 73% in 1998 to 69% in 2010. I started fifth grade.

The recent COVID-19 pandemic hasn’t helped the current numbers either.

Another survey for 2022 Among more than 432,000 children aged 2 to 19 years, it suggests that the rate of increase in BMI almost doubled during the pandemic compared to the same period before the pandemic.

Overweight or obese children tended to have their BMI increase faster. CDC It also reports a 37% increase in pregnancies with type 1 or type 2 diabetes from 2000 to 2010.

Rydyger agrees that rising rates of obesity and diabetes among pregnant children may have contributed to the surge. She also says technology may be exacerbating the problem. .

“Technology has increased levels of stress and anxiety, along with poor sleep patterns and lack of exercise, some of which may contribute to diabetes,” Rydyger said. increase.

2017 survey Eight children aged 8 to 17 suggested that screen time before bed was associated with poorer sleep quality and higher BMI.

2021 systematic review Four children aged 0 to 15 showed that electronic media use was associated with less sleep.

It’s important to note that in the latest study, researchers investigated two markedly different types of diabetes, type 1 and type 2.

“Type 1 people can’t produce insulin at all,” says Gomer. “They are still insulin resistant and have the same potential health problems if their blood sugar is not controlled like type 2, but the cause is different. to attack itself.”

This reaction results in the destruction of insulin-producing cells in the pancreas.

CDC cites family history and age as two risk factors, noting that it is usually (but not always) diagnosed in children, teens, or young adults.

According to the CDC, there are currently no known ways to prevent type 1 diabetes.

Type 2 diabetes, on the other hand, usually develops in people over the age of 45. Other risk factors include:

• Overweight
• Physical activity no more than 3 times a week
• family history

Nwosu challenges the models and predictions of the latest research, but points out that it is especially important to discuss and reduce the risk of diabetes.

• high blood pressure
• Dyslipidemia
• stroke
• Heart disease
• kidney disease
• eye disease

With no known cause of type 1 diabetes, it is difficult to discuss risk reduction. But experts share that there are evidence-based ways to lower someone’s chances of developing type 2 diabetes. Nwosu says it’s important to maintain a healthy weight through diet and exercise.

Rydyger agrees and encourages parents to:

• Stock your kitchen and plan meals rich in unprocessed, nutrient-dense foods such as “fresh fruits, vegetables, whole grains, lean meats, and fats.”
• Exercise together regularly. Recommended by CDC Children between the ages of 6 and 17 can do 60 minutes of physical activity per day.
• Limit screen time
• Encourage activities that enhance mental health

“This rapid rise in diabetes among young people is alarming and should serve as a wake-up call to better focus prevention efforts on young people,” said Rydyger.