Still good news for Colorado and modeling contemplation

Another good week for Colorado. All indicators of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to decline, as do those of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). And by my own very subjective observations, people in Colorado are behaving as if the COVID-19 pandemic has left the state. it’s not. Last week, there were still 185 Coloradans hospitalized, a significant number, not zero. By contrast, that figure was almost ten times higher than his year earlier.

The evolving situation of the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommendations for vaccination against SARS-CoV-2. Last week, the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biologics Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met to consider one question.:

Vaccine composition: Does the Commission recommend that the primary series and booster dose vaccine strain compositions used in the United States be harmonized into a single composition?.5)?

The intention is to simplify the currently confusing vaccination landscape. This included the original series of 2 doses against the original strain followed by a booster and now includes a bivalent booster against the original strain and the Omicron variant. The committee vote was unanimous and positive for the questionThe FDA has also presented a process for selecting future strains to target for vaccines. This shift marks the routinization of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 and reflects what may be the beginning of an epidemic era.

This is another sign of that change. In March 2020, the Colorado School of Public Health joined the Colorado COVID-19 Modeling Group to track the pandemic in Colorado as a basis to support decision-making by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) and the Governor’s Office. was established. The team came from the Colorado School of Public Health, the University of Colorado School of Medicine, the University of Colorado Denver and Boulder, and Colorado State University. A standard-type epidemic model (SEIR – S = susceptibility, E = exposure, I = infection, R = recovery) adjusted for Colorado was used. We used models to predict the course of the pandemic and explore the impact of policy measures such as mask mandates.

Quantitative modeling of infectious diseases has a long history, dating back to at least the early 20th century. Early compartmental models that partitioned populations into susceptible, infected, and recovered were developed by Kermack and McKendrick and Reed and Frost. They have long been applied to influenza epidemics and more recently to emerging infections. The field of infectious disease modeling has evolved significantly, driven by the recent wave of emerging infectious diseases including SARS-CoV-2. Modeling capabilities are accelerated by a network of researchers. Midas, and by increasing computing power. Again, George Box’s quote is still relevant. “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” It was helpful. Modeling efforts were halted following his COVID-19 decline in Colorado. This is encouraging news.

prompted by the positive reviews of chemistryjust finished Escape from model land Erica ThompsonThe message is transmitted from the title. Modelers create artefacts that have little to do with the ‘real world’. This is not news to us, residents of “Modelland”. Modelers of all kinds may find the theme of this book obvious. It reminded me that there is a feedback loop between “model land” and reality. Model findings influence decision-making, and the model is readjusted to changes resulting from the model’s output. Also, models are not worthless. Model authors should be aware of how the model presents the world. How the model characterizes the population. And how findings in different directions influence decision-making. For me, the chapter on modeling financial markets was both informative and discouraging. This book may be of interest to non-modelers looking for a general but unique overview of modeling.

And there is temporary good news. Rep. George Santos has postponed appointments to House committee positions, including appointments to the House’s Science, Space, and Technology Committee.

Get vaccinated and stay healthy.

Jonathan Samet, MD, MS
Dean of Colorado School of Public Health