The constant science of Covid-19

When a doctor sees a patient for a new complaint, we make a list of different possible explanations for the problem-differential diagnosis-and try to determine the correct diagnosis while starting treatment for the most likely will do. After this initial evaluation, test and imaging results may change the differential diagnosis and treatment.

Public health authorities dealing with new pathogens such as the coronavirus that cause Covid-19 go through a similar process. They should recommend policies that contain incomplete information and adjust them over time. But unlike doctors, they do it in public and are sometimes under close scrutiny.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, which does not mean criticism, has embodied the public health diagnostic process in multiple false early declarations. He questioned that asymptomatic people could get the virus. In late February, he reassured the public, “At present, you don’t have to change anything you do every day.” And in March, like many other public health officials at home and abroad, he The average person should not wear a mask.. In fact, both Forch And Surgeon General Jerome Adams It has been suggested that wearing a mask may increase a person’s risk of becoming infected. All these claims were wrong.

As for viruses, I know more about how to infect and treat them than I did a few months ago. For example, coronaviruses can spread from person to person, both symptomatic and asymptomatic. Dr. Forch has come to support each of the opposites of his previous statement, but there are no problems. As economist John Maynard Keynes said, “When the facts change, I change my mind—what do you do, sir?

The lesson: Evolving public health emergencies-despite the demands of some politiciansListen to science!”—Science alone cannot always determine the best course of action. Policy makers need to balance multiple competing factors while dealing with incomplete information and uncertain science. , Infectious disease experts can advise that economic downturns limit the spread of deadly illnesses, but experts in other disciplines say that the same actions lose millions of jobs, Increased death Of those who cannot or do not seek medical attention due to emergencies, chronic illness, more suicide, and more drug and alcohol abuse.

Changing the advice of public health authorities can also undermine and compromise public confidence in them. If science is in flux, it’s easy to ignore the “follow science” warning. This is especially true if the initial justification for the advice was found to be misleading. Americans had no evidence that face masks were protective, or at best they could help protect other people, but mask wearers themselves would not. It was Now Fauci explained The main reason for discouraging the use of masks was not the belief that masks actually worked, but the proper supply of masks to health care workers. It’s a bit strange that some opposers who force the wearing of masks are convinced that the masks are useless and can even do harm. They are allowed to wonder why they need masks and not to protect health care workers, but to protect them.

In dissuading the use of masks, Fauci—for decades, the best American expert on viral infections- Absent Act as a neutral interpreter of resolved science, but act as a policymaker with an interest in maximizing the usefulness of the limited supply of critical items. The economist may have told him that he did not have to mislead the public. Acting market mechanisms and relaxing counter-effective regulations will alleviate shortages. If we are willing to pay higher prices, masks for healthcare professionals will be available. These higher prices will in turn bring out more mask production.

As the Covid-19 crisis progressed, the FDA removed regulatory barriers to using existing masks and mask supplies. March 2, FDA approval Healthcare use of N95 ventilator approved for industrial use by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH). These masks, which make up the majority of manufactured masks, are not regulated by the FDA, Same filtration criteria FDA approved mask. In April, the FDA Emergency use permit Waives Musk’s previous agency approval requirements.

As you learn more about the science of Covid-19 and the market becomes more responsive, it will be easier for you to choose your ideal policy. In any case, open and honest public communication is very important. Both sides of the political spectrum should admit that science is not always clear, and even if it is clear, it rarely demands a particular policy direction.

Joel Zimberg, MD, and JD are senior fellows at the Competitive Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC, and associate clinical professors of surgery at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York. He is a legal counsel and senior economist for the Economic Advisory Council (2017-2019), where he specialized in health policy.