Mandatory calorie labeling could save thousands from cardiovascular death

The current policy of requiring major UK food companies to label calories could prevent around 730 deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD) between 2022 and 2041, suggesting that the policy would require all food products in the UK to If expanded to businesses, it could prevent approximately 9,200 CVD deaths. It suggests an estimate of the impact of the initially modeled policy over the same period. Lancet Public Health.

In April 2022, the government made calorie labeling compulsory for outdoor establishments with 250 or more employees that serve food in the UK as part of the National Obesity Strategy. Similar legislation is being considered in Wales and Scotland, and has been introduced in other countries, including the US and parts of Australia in 2019.

Previous research conducted in countries such as the UK, US and Canada suggests that calorie labeling on menus leads people to order around 47kcal fewer meals and companies to reduce the average calorie content of their meals by 15kcal. Masu. This study is the first to model the impact of calorie labeling on menus on obesity and cardiovascular disease mortality in the UK, and how this differs by socio-economic group.

More than one in four adults in the UK are now obese, and evidence suggests this trend is set to increase. Our research estimates that current calorie labeling laws will prevent hundreds of deaths from cardiovascular disease over the next 20 years, but we believe the government will be more ambitious in its aim to tackle Britain's obesity epidemic. If the policy is extended and the policy is extended, it may have a greater effect. For all outdoor food businesses. ”

Professor Martin O'Flaherty, Professor of Epidemiology, University of Liverpool

The authors modeled the estimated impact of mandatory calorie labeling on menus in the UK on obesity rates and cardiovascular disease deaths from 2022 to 2041 using two scenarios:

• Actual policy developments in the UK require only large home food businesses with over 250 employees to provide calorie information (these businesses make up 18% of stores). ).
• Calorie labeling on menus introduced in all UK food service businesses.

These two scenarios were compared to a baseline scenario where no policy was implemented.

Without menu calorie labeling policies, the model estimates that cardiovascular disease trends will cause approximately 830,000 deaths by 2041 (within a range of 600,000 to 1,200,000). However, it is estimated that the current policy could prevent around 730 of these deaths (within a range of 430 to 1,300), if the policy were extended to all outdoor food businesses in England. , approximately 9,200 deaths could be prevented (within one year). 5,500 to 16,000), nearly 13 times the current policy.

The baseline scenario assumed that the UK obesity rate would be 27% in 2041. The model estimates that current policies will reduce obesity prevalence by 0.31 percentage points (within a range of 0.10 to 0.35) over the next 20 years, but fully implementing the policy will reduce obesity prevalence by 2.65 percentage points. (within 1.97 percent). –3.24).

This model builds on existing evidence that policy effects are comparable across socio-economic groups and predicts inequalities in obesity prevalence and cardiovascular disease mortality across socio-economic groups that differ in calorie labeling on menus. This suggests that it should not be expanded.

“Previous research suggests that calorie labeling on menus has a dual effect: It allows customers to make informed decisions and choose lower calorie options. Large home food companies make up a small proportion of all UK home food businesses, with more than half of them expected to achieve this goal in 2022. “The policy in its current form will only affect a small number of businesses, as they were already providing calorie information on their menus before the law was introduced. It affects all out-of-home food businesses in the UK.” says Dr Zoe Colombet, lecturer in epidemiology and public health at the University of Liverpool.

She continued: “Our results show that extending calorie labeling on menus to all UK home food businesses will support people to make healthier choices to tackle obesity. “This suggests that it could play an important role in future government strategy. However, no one policy alone will solve Britain's problems.” We encourage the Government to continue and strengthen the England Obesity Strategy with a range of policies including calorie labeling, tackling junk food marketing and taxing the soft drinks industry to reduce obesity and narrow the spectrum. . Shocking health disparities in our society. ”

The authors say there are some limitations to the study, including that data on policy-related calorie reductions in the model were taken from a US study, which may not apply to British people. I'm warning you. They also stress that the study only models obesity in adults, so it cannot examine its effects on obesity in children. Notably, modeling studies include many assumptions that can influence the findings, for example in this case the authors assumed that energy consumption does not vary with company size; We hypothesized that there would be no significant change in BMI prevalence over the next 20 years.

Additionally, there are several other policy impact areas that were not explored in this study.

“Our study only looks at the impact of policy on obesity prevalence and cardiovascular disease among adults. , there may also be other benefits that are difficult to quantify.'' Policy makers need to consider multiple factors when making decisions, including the cost-effectiveness of policies and the impact on consumers and businesses. “Future research is needed into the potential unintended negative effects, such as the effects of cancer and eating disorders,” says Professor Eric Robinson. He is Professor of Psychology at the University of Liverpool.

Dr. David D. Kim of the University of Chicago, who was not involved in the study, said in a linked comment: “Evidence from traditional research programs is inadequate to inform policy decisions. “Research designs tend to focus on short-term health. Results (such as changes in weight or biomarkers) may not be representative of diverse populations, and all policy-relevant options may not be considered.” Simulation modeling can help fill this evidence gap by providing information on multiple relevant processes and testing many plausible scenarios. Quantifying the magnitude of intended and unintended consequences and having the option to adjust and refine the design prior to trials or actual implementation testing in the real world is impractical and unfeasible in trials. ”