'The next pandemic is just around the corner', experts warn – will lockdowns happen again? | UK News

Exactly four years ago today, Boris Johnson announced Britain's first coronavirus lockdown, ordering people to “stay at home”.

Working from home has become a reality, separating people from their loved ones while frontline workers are dealing with a new and unknown virus.

Public inquiry underway into how Britain approached COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection)many have criticized how and when we went into and out of lockdown.

So if another pandemic occurs, will we need to lock down again and how will that change?

Sky News asked scientists and disaster experts whether we would ever be told to stay at home again, what measures would be required for a lockdown and whether the public would comply.

When could the pandemic happen again?

The novel coronavirus is often referred to as a “once in a lifetime” event. But with more than 6 million estimated deaths from coronavirus worldwide, the last comparable pandemic emerged only 40 years ago.

HIV/AIDs were first identified in 1981 and have killed 36 million people worldwide. Before that, the 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic killed about 1 million people, and the 1918 Spanish flu killed 50 million people.

Scientists have warned that global warming and deforestation are increasing the potential for viral and bacterial pathogens to “jump” from animals to humans, causing new pandemics.

“We are creating conditions where outbreaks can flourish,” said Dr. Natalie McDermott, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases at King's College London.

“I know that coronavirus has been very difficult for people and I want to believe that we can get back to normal and I completely understand that.

“But the next pandemic is just around the corner. It could take two years, it could take 20 years, it could take longer. But we can't let our guard down. We must remain alert, prepared, and prepared to become victims again. ”

Dr McDermott explains that cutting down trees in the Amazon and parts of Africa is bringing animals and insects closer to people's homes.

And as temperatures rise, outbreaks of mosquito- and tick-borne viruses such as dengue, chikungunya and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) are occurring in parts of Europe where they were previously rare.

“As temperatures rise around the world, even the UK will become a viable area for these types of mosquitoes,” she says.

How long will the lockdown last?

The UK has had three lockdowns, each lasting several months, but Professor Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, insists there should have been “only one by now”.

“The lockdown was an extreme reaction to a situation that was already out of control,” he says.

But he argues that lockdowns could be shorter and more relaxed if there was investment in mitigation measures such as ventilation in public buildings and generic vaccines and antiviral drugs that can be adapted quickly.

Dr McDermott said that until governments, scientists and health care workers learn more about the emerging virus and its spread, “lockdowns will be somewhat inevitable”.

Professor Adam Kucharski, co-director of the Center for Epidemic Preparedness and Response at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, believes that serious infectious diseases, like Ebola in Africa and SARS-1 in the East, can be contained and completely eradicated. If it cannot be eliminated, then Asia – The only way to prevent large-scale disease outbreaks is to significantly reduce transmission through vaccines and treatments to the point where the population becomes less susceptible.

It took eight months for the first coronavirus vaccine to be administered in the UK, and more than a year for it to be rolled out more widely.

Will we be banned from socializing and will schools be closed?

Professor Lucy Easthope, a mass mortality and pandemic expert at the University of Bath, said she wanted to see what she called “subtle isolation”.

“Lockdown is a word I would never use, because it really just makes me think of things like school shootings,” she said.

Regarding restrictions on socializing, she emphasizes the importance of “community and connection” in disaster preparedness.

The UK's 2016 influenza response plan states that public gatherings are a “key indicator of normality” and that there is “little direct evidence of the benefit of canceling such events”.

She said authorities should immediately prioritize creating “wide, safe, well-ventilated spaces” for children, pregnant women and vulnerable people.

This includes places such as cinemas, leisure centers and town halls being repurposed as community centres.

She added that people should be allowed to meet socially outdoors as soon as the nature of the virus is clear, as it is important that people have a “purpose”.

Similarly, pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants should be allowed to open outdoors as soon as possible, she says.

Influenza preparedness plans recommend closing schools in affected areas, but contingency plans have been suggested, such as holding classes in temporary marquees or setting up only spaces for children to attend.

“Many children don't have gardens, so having an organized way to get them outside is important,” Professor Easthope says.

“For major institutions, you might expect to see three or four schools consolidated.”

Another “epidemic”?

The government spent billions of dollars on test and trace systems, including testing centres, coronavirus helplines, manual contact tracing by Public Health England at the time, and the NHS coronavirus app.

Rapid testing is key to stopping people from spreading the virus further and the app had “a lot of promise”, but to avoid resorting to further lockdowns more innovative digital Contact tracing may be necessary, Professor Kucharski said.

“The cause of the epidemic is, to some extent, due to NHS apps working as intended,” he says.

“However, the digital contact tracing infrastructure that some countries in Asia had in place could limit disruption to high-risk populations in specific outbreaks, rather than reverting to blanket measures. Masu.”

He warned that “difficult conversations” around privacy would be needed, but said options include using smartphone location data and debit card transactions to link people to identified incidents. .

In some countries, when people leave quarantine, their phones automatically notify trackers of possible further spread of the virus.

Will the people comply?

Giving evidence to the coronavirus survey last year, public health experts said it was a mistake to think the public would soon tire of lockdowns and suffer from “behavior fatigue”.

Chris Cocking, a social psychologist and expert on crowd behavior, said the drop in compliance wasn't just “fed up” with the regulations, but a lack of trust in government.

“The overall message has to be positive,” says the University of Brighton's senior lecturer. “Because if another situation arises and they need it, people will follow it.”

He said that if a new lockdown was needed, the current Conservative government would have to either minimize the scandal of its own rule-breaking, or replace it entirely to maintain public participation. He says it will be one or the other.

He added: “If we had a new government, people would be much more likely to trust the government because they would say, 'It's the same group as before, why do we have to do the same thing again?' That's because it's less likely,” he added.

“And if we put more effort into avoiding situations like 'Partygate' and Dominic Cummings driving to Barnard Castle, we could appeal to the nation's sense of common identity and keep compliance rates relatively high.” It will be possible to keep it.”

From coronavirus fines to arrests over Black Lives Matter protests and Sarah Everard's vigil, Professor Easthope says lockdown laws are “undoubtedly bad” and “cruelly applied” “It has said.

Cocking argues that lockdown laws have little to do with people's decisions about whether to comply with restrictions.

“What matters is not whether there are laws in place, but whether people are psychologically aware of the need to comply,” he says.

And for those who don't, it's important to engage with different groups to avoid mass movements of “lockdown skeptics”.

“People may feel unable to comply with the restrictions for a variety of reasons, but it would be a big mistake to lump them all together. Then they would all be seen as part of the same group, and authorities would It makes them even more marginalized,” Cocking added. .

Are you fully prepared?

Four years before Covid-19, the UK was secretly conducting pandemic preparedness drills for both influenza and coronavirus outbreaks.

A detailed report on influenza training was compiled, but public health officials told the coronavirus inquiry that no coronavirus training had taken place.

Professors Kucharski and Easthope say broader influenza plans could easily be adapted.

“It's nonsense to separate influenza planning from coronavirus planning,” Professor Kucharski said.

“The characteristics of the new coronavirus were very similar to the type of infection in the influenza pandemic. There will be a broader debate about what consequences are acceptable for the terrible price we have to pay. I should have.”

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Professor Easthope said that in the late 2010s she and other emergency planners found that the infrastructure meant that the UK was “unprepared for even a relatively manageable pandemic” in terms of health and social care. He said he had identified the hole. She also said PPE stockpiling “failed” in 2017.

But she says the Internet's ability to handle so many processes moving online is “enabling and unifying.”

“We didn't know how well it would work, but ultimately that was one of the reasons we didn't completely collapse,” she says.

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson told Sky News: “Throughout the pandemic, the Government has saved lives and livelihoods, prevented the NHS from being overwhelmed, carried out a world-leading vaccine rollout, and supported millions of people across the country. I saved his life,” he said.

“We have always said there are lessons to be learned from the pandemic and we are committed to learning from the coronavirus findings, which will play an important role in informing the government’s planning and preparedness for the future. We will consider all recommendations made and forward them to the Department in full. ”