Health
Influenza virus most likely to cause next pandemic, experts warn
This prediction was made in a new study presented at the ESCMID Global Conference in Barcelona, Spain, later this week.
The VACCELERATE consortium study involved infectious disease experts, including Irish Professor Sam McConkie of Beaumont Hospital in Dublin, who were asked to rank pathogens in order of their likelihood of causing a pandemic.
Influenza is considered the virus with the highest pandemic risk, with 57% ranking it first and a further 17% as the second most likely threat.
Ireland has experienced major winter outbreaks over the past two seasons, with hospitalizations soaring and 188 people dying since late last year.
This winter's outbreak has now subsided, but hundreds of cases are still being reported each week.
Professor McConkie said: “In my view, Ireland and the EU need to prepare for a huge variety of new infectious pathogens that could come at us, sometimes suddenly.”
“There is great uncertainty as to which will come and when. Influenza has shown the potential to cause a pandemic, and in my view it is most likely, but the next thing that threatens us is SARS. – It could be CoV3, a foodborne pathogen, a viral hemorrhagic fever, a resistant Gram-negative bacillus, an arbovirus, a malicious cyber attack, or a computer virus. We need to build robust and resilient systems. there is.”
Dr. John Salmanton García from the University of Cologne and his colleagues ranked the candidates most likely to cause the next pandemic.
This included Disease X, which is still an unknown disease, with 21% ranking it first and 14% ranking it second.
SARS-CoV-2, which causes the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), came in third place among first-place responses, at 8%, with 16% voting for second place.
The original SARS-CoV virus, which circulated more than 20 years ago in 2002-2003, was ranked first by two disease experts and second by eight.
Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHF virus) and Ebola virus were tied for fifth place.
The World Health Organization has outlined a comprehensive research and development blueprint for action to prevent epidemics, focusing on major infectious diseases that pose a significant threat to public health.
These diseases were selected after a rigorous evaluation that considered factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential.
Experts can rank the 13 pathogens listed plus Disease X up to 14 pathogens in order of risk perception.
Dr. Salmanton García said, “Every winter we have a flu season. This could mean that there are very few pandemics each winter.
“It's more or less controlled because the different strains aren't virulent enough. But the strains involved change from season to season, so we can all get the flu several times in our lifetimes, and vaccines don't. It changes every year.
“This control could be lost if new strains become more virulent.”
He added that the world is now much better prepared due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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