Global physical inactivity on the rise, making 2030 reduction targets difficult to meet

In a recently published study, The Lancet Global HealthThe researchers looked at the global incidence of insufficient physical activity among adults from 2000 to 2022, using data from 163 countries and autonomous regions.

The survey results show that the proportion of people who are not sufficiently physically active will increase from 23.4% in 2000 to 31.3% in 2022. These trends suggest that the World Health Organization's target of a relative reduction of 15% by 2030 will be difficult to achieve.

study: National, regional and global trends in adult physical inactivity from 2000 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 507 population-based surveys involving 5.7 million participantsImage credit: grandbrothers / Shutterstock

background

Physically active people have a lower risk of developing non-communicable diseases, better weight maintenance, better mental health, and better cognitive and physical function.

The World Health Organization's (WHO) most recent physical activity guidelines recommend that adults get at least 150 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity, or at least 75 minutes of vigorous-intensity physical activity, each week.

People who do not meet this recommendation for aerobic activity are physically inactive. The World Health Assembly (WHA) has set a target to reduce the relative prevalence of physical inactivity by 15% by 2030.

However, setting global targets and estimates also requires adequate and consistent monitoring of behaviors such as sedentary time, balance activities, and muscle strengthening among older adults.

Regarding physical inactivity among adults, a recent time series analysis shows that although the global prevalence of this phenomenon remained stable between 2001 and 2016, trajectories varied considerably across regions and countries.

About the Research

As some countries have collected updated data since 2016, taken together these findings may provide valuable insights into changes in global estimates of physical inactivity among adults.

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of physical inactivity among adults aged 18 years and older in 197 countries and territories from 2000 to 2022.

Insufficient physical activity was defined based on WHO recommendations. Data were collected from a population-level survey including individual-level anonymous data and summary statistics, covering different domains such as work, travel and leisure.

We used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate country-, year-, age-, and sex-specific prevalence rates, incorporating data from multiple sources and adjusting for factors such as survey design and city representativeness.

The models accounted for variation in survey type and included the prevalence of obesity as a covariate. Estimates were produced for each country and aggregated globally, by region, and by income group.

The study also projected trends through 2030 to assess progress towards the global target of reducing the prevalence of insufficient physical activity by 15%. Uncertainty intervals were calculated using Bayesian confidence intervals and posterior probabilities were calculated to assess the likelihood of achieving the target.

Map showing age-standardized prevalence of physical inactivity among adults aged 18 years and older in 2022 (A), coverage and representativeness of the data (B), and country progress from 2010-22 towards the global target of a 15% relative reduction in the prevalence of physical inactivity among adults aged 18 years and older between 2010 and 2030 (C). For clarity, countries with smaller areas are listed next to boxes showing their corresponding values. Each country's progress towards the global target is assessed based on whether estimated trends in physical inactivity from 2010-22 would be sufficient to achieve the global target if continued to 2030. High or low certainty indicates certainty about whether estimated rates of change would be sufficient to achieve the global target if continued to 2030.

Investigation result

The study includes data from 507 surveys in 163 of 197 countries, covering 93% of the world's population. The majority of the surveys (452) are nationally representative, with high coverage in regions such as high-income Asia-Pacific, Oceania and South Asia, but low coverage in sub-Saharan Africa (population coverage of 61.5%).

The analysis reveals that around one-third of adults worldwide will be physically inactive by 2022, with a global prevalence of 31.3%. Prevalence was highest in high-income Asia-Pacific and South Asia, and lowest in Oceania and sub-Saharan Africa.

The prevalence was higher in women (33.8%) than in men (28.7%) and varied widely across countries and regions. Physical inactivity was most prevalent among older adults.

Trends from 2010 to 2022 show rising prevalence globally, with the fastest increases in high-income Asia-Pacific and South Asia. If current trends continue, prevalence is projected to reach 34.7% by 2030, making it unlikely that the global target of a 15% reduction will be met.

Conclusion

In 2022, almost one-third of adults worldwide (31.3%, or 1.8 billion people) will be physically inactive, a significant increase from 23.4% (0.9 billion people) in 2000. This trend runs counter to the 2030 global goal of reducing inactivity by 15% compared to 2010.

Prevalence of inactivity is higher among women and adults aged 60 years and older, with variations across countries and regions. Compared with previous WHO estimates, the current analysis included more studies (507 compared to 358) and countries (108 compared to 65), revealing an increase in global inactivity that was missed in previous data.

Effective policies have led to some positive trends in high-income Western countries and Oceania, but current time trends suggest that most countries will not reach their 2030 targets, highlighting the need for further investment in physical activity promotion.

Limitations include a lack of data for some countries, potential bias in self-reporting, and disruptions to data collection due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Future research should focus on increasing physical activity participation among women and older adults, improving data collection methods, including device-based measurements, and addressing socioeconomic disparities.