Scientists warn that these pathogens could spark the next pandemic

Scientists warn that these pathogens could spark the next pandemic

by Smriti Malapati & Nature Magazine

The number of pathogens that could cause the next pandemic has grown to more than 30, including influenza A virus, dengue virus, and monkeypox virus. The latest list released by the World Health Organization The WHO released a list of “priority pathogens” last week, which researchers say will help the organization decide where to focus its efforts in developing treatments, vaccines and diagnostics.

“It's very comprehensive,” says study participant Neelika Malavidge, an immunologist at the University of Sri Jayawardenepura in Colombo, Sri Lanka, who studies viruses in the Flaviviridae family, which includes Dengue fever.

The priority pathogens announced in the July 30 report were selected because they have the potential to cause a global public health emergency for humanity, such as a pandemic, based on evidence showing that the pathogens are highly contagious and virulent, and have limited access to vaccines and treatments. WHO identified about a dozen priority pathogens in 2017 and 2018.

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“The prioritization process will help identify critical knowledge gaps that need to be addressed urgently and ensure the efficient use of resources,” said Ana Maria Henao Restrepo, who leads the WHO's Epidemic Research and Development Blueprint team that produced the report.

These lists should be reviewed periodically to identify key Global changes in Climate Change A number of factors are at play, including deforestation, urbanization and international tourism, Maravige said.

Recent efforts have identified and expanded the scope of dangerous pathogens across entire families of viruses and bacteria.

Chickenpox and smallpox

More than 200 scientists spent nearly two years evaluating the evidence on 1,652 pathogens – mostly viruses but also some bacteria – to decide which ones to include on the list.

Among the more than 30 priority pathogens is a group called coronaviruses. SarbecovirusesThis includes SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the global COVID-19 pandemic. MelbecovirusThis includes the virus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)Previous lists included the specific viruses that cause Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and MERS, but not the entire subgenera to which they belong.

Other viruses added to the list include: Global MPOX epidemic By 2022, Regions of Central AfricaThe virus is considered a priority, along with its relative, variola, which causes smallpox, despite being eradicated in 1980 because people no longer receive regular vaccinations against it and have therefore no longer developed immunity. Unplanned Release It has the potential to cause a pandemic, and the virus could be used “by terrorists as a biological weapon,” Maravigi said.

Six influenza A viruses are also on the list, including the H5 subtype. Spread of infection in cattle In the United States, the five new bacteria include strains that cause cholera, plague, dysentery, diarrhea and pneumonia.

Two rodent viruses were also added because they can sporadically jump from person to person. Climate change and increased urbanization may increase the risk of these viruses jumping to humans, according to the report. Bat-borne viruses are: Nipah virus The virus remains on the list because it is deadly and highly contagious in animals and there is currently no treatment to prevent it.

Many of the priority pathogens are currently confined to specific regions but have the potential to spread globally, says Naomi Forrester-Soto, a virologist at the Pirbright Institute near Woking, England, who worked on the analysis. She studies the Togavirus family, which includes the virus that causes chikungunya. “There's really no place that's most at risk,” she says.

“Prototype” pathogens

In addition to the list of priority pathogens, the researchers also compiled a separate list of “prototype pathogens” that can be used as model species for basic science research and for developing treatments and vaccines. “This could potentially accelerate research into less well-studied viruses and bacteria,” Forrester-Soto says.

For example, before the COVID-19 pandemic, there were no human vaccines for any coronavirus, says Malik Peiris, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong and part of the Coronavirus Family Research Group. Developing a vaccine against a family member would give the scientific community confidence that it would be in a better position to deal with any major public health emergencies from these viruses, he says. This also applies to treatments, he says, because “many antiviral drugs work against the whole group of viruses.”

Forrester Soto says the list of pathogens is reasonable given what researchers know about viruses. But “some of the pathogens on the list may never cause an epidemic, and some we haven't thought of may become important in the future,” she says. “We've rarely predicted what pathogen will emerge next.”

This article is reprinted with permission. First Edition August 2, 2024.