Covid-19: Experts warn that the third wave of coronavirus is “fully possible”

Third wave of Coronavirus Experts warn that it is “fully possible” and lockdown only puts off the problem.

Mark Woolhaus, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said rigorous measures would prevent an emergency crisis and reduce infections quickly, but not eliminate the virus.

When he talked about the BBC One’s Andrew Marr show on Sunday, he said modeling had previously shown that it was “fully possible” to need a second lockdown in September.

read more: Coronavirus: Glasgow has the highest Covid rate in the UK-in reports of students fleeing campus

When asked if there was a third wave of coronavirus, he said: “It’s perfectly possible.

“The scenario I mentioned earlier actually includes this possibility, and this is just another demonstration of what I was saying before.

“That’s why you need some sort of cavalry on the horizon, or if you think the vaccine isn’t available for 6 months, 12 months, 2 years, or at any time, it means you need an alternative. To do.

“The alternatives mentioned so far are like mass-test moonshot programs.”

Professor Woolhouse, a member of the Sage subgroup Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modeling (Spi-M), said the vaccine is unlikely to be rolled out on a large scale, even if it is available within six months. During that period.

He said Sweden said the virus could be controlled without “strictly enforced lockdowns”, indicating that restrictions need to be long-term sustainable.

He added, “I don’t think there’s a way around this in the coming months, even if there are no restrictions. This is the new law.”

When asked if the government modeled other options for the blockade of the country at the beginning of the pandemic, Professor Woolhouse said “basically no.”

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He also said he was unaware of modeling the effects of closing the pub at 10 pm.

“The model doesn’t have that subdivision. You can’t dig into the difference in pub closing times or the different versions of the” Law of Six “, that is, the difference between indoor and outdoor transmission.

read more: What do Scottish lockdown rules mean for stays and travel abroad?

“This must be a call for public judgment. health Evidence, not modeling. ”

But Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden told Sky News Sophie Ridge that there was “definitely science” behind the 10 pm curfew for pubs, bars and restaurants on Sunday.

Mr. Dauden said: “There’s definitely science behind it, so people need to sit in pubs and restaurants to stop coming and going to bars.

“We reduce closing times and prevent people from staying and drinking later. And all these points are that everyone is doing their part. All of us If you follow the rules, you can be assured that there will be no more stringent regulations. ”

Professor Graham Medley, an infectious disease modeling expert, said on Saturday that he did not remember the curfew that Sage was discussing.

These are the main symptoms of # COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when it first appears:

▶ ️ High temperature ▶ ️ New continuous cough ▶ ️ Loss or change of smell or taste

Most people # Coronavirus There is at least one of these symptoms.

Visit the NHS website for advice: ▶ ️ https://t.co/yYaFVAjV0Z pic.twitter.com/1lNZblwU9U

— Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (@DHSCgovuk) September 26, 2020

Professor Woolhouse also said the outbreak at the university was “fully predictable.”

His comment came when the outbreak of Covid-19 on campus put pressure on the government to ensure that young people were not trapped in their settlements during the festival.

Thousands of students are now self-isolating in their rooms following a surge in incidents at facilities such as Glasgow, Manchester Metropolitan and Edinburgh Napier.

Professor Woolhouse added: Face teaching.

“This is very predictable and modeled.”

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