Studies suggest that the rise in coronavirus infections is slowing in the UK

The UK’s largest coronavirus infection survey began to decline after pandemic growth rose very rapidly during most of September, as the “Rule 6” and other social distance measures were implemented. I gave a faint hope of being there.

The· Study by Imperial College London Is based on a swab test with a random sample of 84,000 people from September 18th to 26th. Preliminary results suggest that recall R dropped from 1.7 at the beginning of the month to 1.1, but researchers say the error is large — R, the average number of people infected with the virus , May be in the range of 0.7 to 1.5.

The findings follow a warning on Wednesday by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whose chief scientific adviser, Patrick Valence, admitted that the virus was “out of control” and soon restricted coronavirus. May be imposed.

Stephen Riley, co-author of the Imperial Report, compared the trajectory of the epidemic with someone climbing a hill and discovering a gentle slope. “I don’t know if I’ve reached the summit yet,” he said.

Paul Elliott, director of Imperial React research, added that the recent decline in R numbers does not discourage the government from strengthening compliance with social distance measurements.

“Our latest findings provide early evidence that the growth of new cases may have slowed, suggesting that efforts to control infection are working, but of infection. The prevalence is the highest ever recorded, “he said. “One in 200 people walking down the street today is infected.”

Prevalence of infection has reportedly risen everywhere, but remains the highest in northwest England at 0.86 percent. Cases increased significantly in London, quintupling from 0.10% to 0.49%.

Hours after the findings were released, the government announced further limits across northern England affecting more than 2 million people in seven districts in and around Merseyside and Tees Valley.

Due to changes in the rules, it will be illegal to meet people from different households indoors in pubs and restaurants in the Liverpool city area, Warrington, Middlesbrough and Hartlepool. The measures expected to take effect over the weekend are consistent with the measures imposed in northeastern England last week.

Imperial researchers estimated that 0.55 percent of the population carries the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19, but in the previous test from August 22 to September 7, it was 0.13 percent. did.

Professor Riley said: “There is first evidence of an epidemic slowdown, but it is only preliminary evidence. What is important to me is that the prevalence must be reduced.”

Infectious diseases are increasing most rapidly in people over the age of 65 who have been tested 7 times more positively than in the previous round. However, the infection rate among young people remains the highest, with an estimated 1 in 100 people between the ages of 18 and 24 being infected with the virus.

Regarding the findings, the Imperial College team stated in an unpublished paper: “Slowing of prevalence growth … Government-enhanced public health to allow individuals to adhere to social distance measures and limit the number of people visiting their homes and meeting outdoors at one time. Following a messaging campaign, recently closed pubs and bars by 10 pm, the rule of social distance. “

Professor Riley said the recent slowdown was “evidence of a change in people’s behavior” in September, but the data show a “6 rule” or other specific that will take effect on the decline in R on September 14. It was not powerful enough to relate to the measure.

Regional data suggest that recent increases are not limited to regional outbreaks, but there was some evidence of regional clustering. “This means that strengthening public health measures for social mixing and distance need to be done at the national level, not just at the local level where’hot spots’ were detected,” the researchers said. It was.