Does COVID-19 exist forever?

Experts have learned a lot about SARS-CoV-2 (the causative virus) COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when it first appears) Since the pandemic started. However, there are still many unknowns about what will happen. One question that both scientists and laymen have is whether the new coronavirus becomes endemic, that is, whether it becomes established.

Many experts say this is the case, but tools like vaccines can help us control the spread and may reduce the severity of the disease. This allows you to return to a normal state, or at least a new normal state.

What the experts say

“This virus isn’t with us forever, and there’s really no way to become an endemic virus like the cold virus or the flu virus.” Dr. John PattonBratt, a professor of biology at Indiana University and chairman of virology, told Very Well. “It will be with us and we need to control it and alleviate the worse symptoms.”

SARS-CoV-2 is more likely to develop endemic disease if reinfection becomes the norm and highly effective vaccines are not applied worldwide. Science magazine.

Experts say it’s a waiting game as we’re working to learn more about how our immune system responds to COVID-19 in the long run and the effectiveness of pending vaccines. I will.

In the meantime, you can see what we know about other respiratory viruses, especially the family of coronaviruses.Also, with SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine science Measure the likelihood of new coronaviruses becoming endemic.

“It won’t disappear” William Schaffner MD, A medical professor in the Department of Infectious Diseases, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, told Very Well. “No public health officer or infectious disease doctor is saying that. This is a serious problem we still have to tackle. And once the vaccine is here and we start vaccination, That doesn’t mean you can throw the mask in the trash. ”

Immunity due to infection

Experts are still learning about the potential for reinfection with SARS-CoV-2. Men in Nevada tested for virus twice, about every 7 weeks, after testing for negatives twice between the two. Lancet infection.. Researchers do not know if the incident is a reactivated infection or a reinfection.

However, experts say that because we are dealing with the coronavirus, we already know that infection is unlikely to lead to permanent immunity.

“This is not only because of how these viruses infect us and how they replicate, but also because of how our immune system reacts to them,” Patton says. I will. “Unfortunately, with viruses like coronavirus, the immune response generally does not help protect sterilization.”

Sterilizing immunity means that we could not be re-infected.We are we it can Reinfects with influenza, respiratory viruses such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and common colds each year.

Schaffner says SARS-CoV-2 has many cousins. Before the virus diverged from animals to humans, there were four coronaviruses known to affect humans, which usually caused common cold symptoms. These human coronaviruses prevent short-term reinfection with the same virus after infection.

“But about a year later, your protection began to weaken and you could catch a new cold from the same old virus,” Schaffner says. “If this happens, we will have a much thicker soup, because” once infected “does not mean” always protected. ” ”

Immunity by vaccination

Another way to achieve potential immunity from the virus-or at least some protection from infection or Severe symptoms— Due to vaccination. However, Schaffner says the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is not something like “wearing armor.”

Unlike other viruses, it is probably impossible to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 from a population via a vaccine. “Science is needed to develop a vaccine that is as effective as the measles vaccine,” says Schaffner. “I don’t think there is a better vaccine than this.”

For example, two doses of measles vaccine are 97% effective in providing lasting immunity to measles.We eradicated measles in the United States because of its effectiveness and the lifelong protection that the vaccine provides.

“Of course, if you don’t vaccinate your child, you’ll get it back,” Schaffner adds as a warning.

The development of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is a much more complex scientific task than the relatively simple measles vaccine production. Therefore, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has set low standards for the required efficacy of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. “They said the vaccine should be at least 50% effective,” says Schaffner. “It’s declining around the year of bad flu vaccines,” he adds, explaining that the effectiveness of flu shots varies from year to year based on circulating strains.

Lifelong lack of immunity

In addition to having an initial vaccine that may not be highly effective, you may not have a vaccine that provides lifelong protection. “I’m trying to see a crystal ball, but I really don’t know what will happen,” Patton says. “But most of the vaccines produced appear to provide some protection, but the nature of this protection is unlikely to result in lasting sterile immunity.”

So why is there a hype about potential vaccines when vaccines are unlikely to be very effective or provide lifelong immunity? Simply put, a safe vaccine gives us a new tool for fighting a pandemic. “If we have a vaccine, it really changes everything.” Brian Loves, PhD, MPH, REHS, An assistant professor of public health at the Faculty of Public Health, University of Las Vegas, told Very Well. “This allows us to see this in another way. [COVID-19] Not only will we extend our social distance, but we will also have a disease that we can control. ”

What happens when the virus becomes endemic?

Failure to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 does not mean that the virus will remain at the same threat level as it is today. Eventually, the virus will become endemic.

Brian Loves, PhD, MPH, REHS

We try to make predictions based on our knowledge of other viruses and similar situations, but only time tells us exactly what is really happening.

— Brian Labus, PhD, MPH, REHS

“Infections can be significantly reduced, as they cause virus-like smoldering,” says Schaffner. “It no longer causes outbreaks, and that’s what most of us think will happen if we get a safe and effective vaccine.”

Patton adds that even if the vaccine is not very effective in preventing infection, it can reduce the severity of COVID-19 symptoms and reduce the risk of death. Moreover, vaccines are not the only area of ​​research scientists are working on.

“We jumped at the solution as a vaccine, and that’s certainly true. But what impressed me so much in the last six months was getting to where we have. How well you are doing for this. Effective treatments and treatments. ”

Find a new normal

What does the future of potentially endemic COVID-19 look like? Experts are uncertain, but they are working on developing a better sense of what’s to come. “We’re trying to make predictions based on what we know about other viruses and similar situations, but only time can tell us exactly what’s really happening,” Labus said. Mr. says.

Meanwhile, Schaffner keeps people wearing masks and encourages them to stay 6 feet away from others. “I sincerely hope that the vaccine will help us, but the vaccine should not carelessly do us.”

Schaffner envisions vulnerable people, such as the elderly and people with underlying illnesses, to continue to wear masks during the winter, even after successfully coping with the COVID-19 pandemic.

When will Do we understand it? “If we could get a safe and effective vaccine later this year or early next year, we might have reached the ability to reduce the infection of this virus just around this time next year,” says Schaffner. “And my hope is that next year’s Thanksgiving will be almost normal.”