Here’s how rapidly the UK COVID-19 variant is spreading in the United States.

Variants that are 50% more contagious may not sound like a big deal, but they can have a significant impact. Dr. F. Perry Wilson, Yale Medical Doctors and Clinical Researchers, and “Coursera Instructors”Understand Medical Research: Your Facebook Friends Are Wrong.. “

“That is, on average, everyone infected will be infected with more than 50% of people, and then those people will be infected with more than 50%,” Wilson said.

Without vaccination, the CDC predicts that this variant can increase the number of cases from 60 new cases per 100,000 to more. 80 new cases per 100,000..

The R number, or fertility, is, on average, the number of people with this disease who spread the coronavirus.

Experts believe that SARS-CoV-2 has an R number of about 2. However, thanks to mask wear, physical distance, and herd immunity, that number is likely to have dropped to about 1.1, Wilson said.

According to the CDC, if the variants identified in the UK are 50% more contagious, as estimated, the R number will increase to 1.5.

Wilson broke mathematics. If 1,000 people are infected with the normal SARS-CoV-2 mutant with R number 1.1, they will infect another 1,100 people with the virus. After these 10 cycles, 2,593 people will be infected.

If the R number is increased to 1.5 with mutations detected in the UK, there will be 57,665 in 10 cycles.

“It’s math that scares me,” Wilson said.

Even if the mortality rate remains the same, it will probably be, but Wilson said the variant could cause exponentially high mortality just because the number of cases increases very rapidly. There is. ”

When the worst-case scenario planned by the CDC is implemented, hospitals that have reached their limits will be even more overwhelmed. As a result, the quality of care can be reduced.

“In areas where the healthcare system is likely to be overwhelmed, shelter-in-place may be needed,” Wilson said.

According to Wilson, vaccines will be the best tool to mitigate the effects of new variants.

To mitigate the effects of variants, it is necessary to reduce the number of people who can be infected with the virus.

“Masking and social distance are important here, but vaccines are the best tool we have because it is much harder to infect vaccinated people than unvaccinated people. You can see that, “said Wilson.

The CDC model predicts that widespread vaccination will reduce the total number of cases to 40 new cases per 100,000 by May.

Wilson said we are in the fight against time when it comes to vaccination.

“These new variants need to be vaccinated as soon as possible and transferred from the assembly line to weapons to prevent the proliferation of new infections caused by the exponential spread of the more contagious variants. It means, “Wilson said.

It takes time to achieve herd immunity. According to Wilson, we are unlikely to reach that until about 80% of people have acquired immunity through vaccination or recovery from infection.

But even some vaccinations provide the coveted relief.

“Vaccination of 20-30% of the population will dramatically slow the spread and give hospitals some room,” Wilson said.

Dr. Ilhem Messaoudi, Principal of the University of California, Irvine Virus Research Center, Said that there are many things that can affect the results mapped to the model.

It shows what can happen in a particular situation, but it’s difficult, if not impossible, to pinpoint exactly how things work in the real world.

“”[Models are] Keeping us on our toes, staying keenly conscious, and keeping us a kind of face down is really good. “Well, this is our worst scenario. We need to do something about it,” Messaoudi said.

However, there are many moving targets that can affect results, such as:

• How many people have never been infected or vaccinated before?
• Our actions and whether we comply with public health safety measures
• age
• Location
• Health
• Population housing

There may also be other new variants that are accelerating across the country, all of which will affect transmissions in the coming months.

Some experts suspect that another subspecies detected in South Africa, the B.1.351 subspecies, may already exist in the United States.

another New variant It has the same mutation that the B.1.1.7 variant was detected in Ohio last week. Los Angeles also identified a variant, CAL.20C, It can cause a surge that overwhelms local hospitals.

Messaoudi said a large number of variants could be in circulation and scientists did not sequence them all.

And if the coronavirus continues to mutate frequently, more mutants will emerge.

“if [a] The new mutation works better for the virus, it will just be dominant, “Messaoudi said.

The CDC model will allow more time to reach higher levels of herd immunity through vaccination due to universal and strict compliance with public health measures used to prevent the spread of COVID-19. is showing.

There is no evidence that the B.1.1.7 variant is resistant to the mitigation strategies used to prevent infection.

According to Messaoudi, by combining safety measures such as wearing a mask and vaccination, even if highly infectious variants are on the market, they can be in a better place after 6 months. ..

“We are concerned that it is more contagious, which means we must be more vigilant than ever,” said Masaudi.

The new variant detected in the United Kingdom is expected to become the predominant strain in the United States by March.

If left uncontrolled, the B.1.1.7 variant can lead to a surge of even more new cases than what we are currently seeing. According to the CDC model, this will lead to increased hospitalization and mortality.

The best way to mitigate the potential impact of new variants is rapid and widespread vaccination.

In the meantime, public health safety measures, such as wearing a mask, will help prevent the spread of all coronavirus variants.