Studies find that British coronavirus mutants carry a 35% higher risk of death

A new study confirms that the coronavirus variant, first identified in the UK in September and dominated the UK in recent months, is not only more infectious than previous variants, but also deadly. It has been.

B.1.1.7.There is distortion Spreads over 60 countries – Including China Where the pandemic started over a year ago – According to the World Health Organization (WHO).Some countries have also moved Block air travel From the UK, and the UK has suspended flights from Brazil and South Africa.

Researchers tracked approximately 1 million people tested for COVID-19 in a community environment from November to January. Eventually, about 3,000 people died. After considering other factors affecting the outcome of COVID-19, patients with the new variant had an approximately 35% increased risk of death, they Report on medRxiv Prior to peer review.

In male patients aged 55-69 years, 1 in 180 died after being infected with an older version of the virus.

Nicholas Davis, co-author of the London School of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, told Reuters that the new variant “has risen to 1/140.” According to his team, the absolute risk of death remains low even under the age of 54.

For women aged 70-84, the risk of death within 28 days increased from 2.9% in the original variant to 3.7% in the new UK variant, and from 12.8% to 16.4% for women aged 85 and over. The mortality rate for men aged 70-84 increased from 4.7% to 6.1%, and the mortality rate for older men increased from 17.1% to 21.7%.

The researchers did not have data on people diagnosed in the hospital or infected who had never been tested. “The increase in mortality seems to be likely to exceed 35%,” Davis said, saying his team is updating the analysis with more data.

The findings reflect a previous statement by UK government officials.Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned about that possibility At the Downing Street press conference in January.

Most recently, the government’s chief scientific adviser, Patrick Valence, said at a news conference that “there is evidence that people with new variants are at increased risk.”

For a man in his 60s who has the original strain of the virus, Valence said, “The average risk is that for 1,000 infected people, unfortunately about 10 people are expected to die.” I have.

“With the new variant, for 1,000 infected people, it is expected that approximately 13 or 14 people will die,” he said. However, he emphasizes that “the evidence is not yet strong,” and further research is needed.

In contrast to that uncertainty, he said he was more confident that the mutant would be more easily inherited than the original coronavirus strain.He said it was Higher viral load It seems to be 30% to 70% more contagious.

Maria Van Kerkhove, World Health Organization technology leader on COVID-19, said research is underway to investigate the transmission and severity of new viral variants. She said that “no increase in severity has been seen” so far, but that more infections lead to an “excessive health care system” and thus can lead to more deaths.

“The conclusions about this increase in lethality came from analyzes performed by several different groups, although they deal with essentially the same data,” said Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia. Stated.

“Although most, if not all, show an increased risk of death, there are significant differences in the estimated increased risk of death between different analyzes,” he told Agence France-Presse (AFP).

Ian Jones, a professor of virology at the University of Reading, said: “The data are limited and the conclusions are preliminary. However, if the virus becomes more infected, the case fatality rate can certainly increase.”

UK officials say they are confident that the vaccine licensed for COVID-19 will work against new strains identified in the country.But Valence said the scientists Subspecies identified in Brazil And South Africa may be more resistant to vaccines, Adds that further investigation is needed.

The UK is currently blocked to delay the recent surge in coronavirus outbreaks. Pubs, restaurants, entertainment venues, and many shops are closed, and people need to stay mostly at home. Although the number of new infections is beginning to decline, deaths are still painful, averaging over 1,000 per day, and hospitalizations are 80% higher than at the first peak of the spring pandemic. I am.