Covid-19 pandemics rarely occur, new genetic dating studies show

“It was a perfect storm. I found that I had to take one or two lucky breaks to really take hold,” said a professor of evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona. Michael Wolobay told CNN.

“If things were a little different, if the first person to bring it to the South China Market decided not to go that day, or if they were just at home ill, or other early super-popular The event may not have happened. We may not even know about it. “

The team adopted molecular dating and used the percentage of ongoing mutations to calculate how long the virus was present. They also ran a computer model to show when, how, and how it spread.

“Our study was designed to answer the question of how long SARS-CoV-2 was in circulation in China before it was discovered,” said Associate Professor of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California. Professor Joel Weltheim said. San Diego Medical College.

“To answer this question, we combined three important pieces of information: a detailed understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 spread in Wuhan before the blockade, the genetic diversity of the virus in China, and COVID. -Report of early cases of -19. China. Combining these different evidences allowed us to set an upper limit for SARS-CoV-2 in mid-October 2019, when it began to prevail in Wuhan. “

Evidence strongly suggests that the virus may not have been circulating before, the researchers said. Evidence has been reported from Italy and other European countries that the virus may have infected people there before October. However, according to a Thursday survey, only about 12 people were infected between October and December, Wolobay said.

“Given that, it’s difficult to reconcile these low-level viruses in China with claims of infection in Europe and the United States,” Wertheim said in a statement. “At that time, I was quite skeptical of COVID-19’s claims outside of China.”

The study shows that the virus occurred in Hubei, China, but not elsewhere, the researchers said.

“Our results also refute the allegations of a large number of patients requiring hospitalization for COVID-19 in Hubei province before December 2019,” they wrote.

From a few cases that “sputtered” at the end of 2019, the virus exploded around the world.according to Johns Hopkins University, It was diagnosed in 121.7 million people and nearly 2.7 million died. The United States is the most affected country to date, with nearly 30 million diagnosed cases and nearly 540,000 deaths.

This study does not show which animal was the source of the virus. Genetic evidence indicates that bats carry a closely related virus, suggesting that another intermediate species of animal may have infected and transmitted the virus to some humans. I have.

This happens. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention regularly tracks and reports cases of new strains infected with influenza. People attending the county trade fair For example, interact with a pig. But so far, none of these infectious diseases have caused epidemics or even outbreaks.

What is needed is a lot of contact between the infected person and others, such as the crowded seafood market. “If the virus isn’t lucky enough to find such a situation, even a well-adapted virus can disappear,” Wolobay said.

“It gives you some perspective-these events are probably happening much more often than we are aware of. They didn’t work at all and we’ve heard about them. No, “Wolobay said.

And that could have happened with Covid-19.

In the model run by the team, the virus only occurs about 30% of the time. For the rest of the time, the model shows that it should have become extinct after infecting a small number of people.

“What happened here was that the virus spread to a very small number of people in October, November and December, and then invaded the South China seafood market,” Wolobay said.

The market may have been the place where the virus was amplified, not the place where the virus first infected people.

It is noteworthy that the virus was identified very quickly, given that the virus had been present for a short period of time, Wolobay said.

“It was quite apparently at some point in December that we could discover a new virus before a significant group of infected people existed,” he said. By January 2020, sequencing and characterization were done.

Nevertheless, it was too late-probably because Covid-19 isn’t deadly enough. The first SARS virus was stopped by collaborative efforts on a global scale after killing nearly 10% of the victims between 2002 and 2004.

“As a scientific community, we were certainly aware of the potential pandemics of highly contagious and addictive pathogens, but our system of reporting illnesses detected a surge in hospitalizations and deaths. Obviously, that wasn’t enough to stop Covid-19, “Wertheim told CNN.

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