What happens to people who have not been vaccinated with COVID-19?

“We know what will happen to them,” said Dr. John Swartzberg, an emeritus professor of infectious diseases and vaccines at the University of California, Berkeley. “With a virus that is as contagious as this and becomes more contagious because of the mutant, those who decide not to be vaccinated are more likely to become infected over time,” Swartsburg said. .. “Ultimately, those who choose not to be vaccinated will contribute to herd immunity by the fact that they are infected.”

From a social point of view, he said that people who skip vaccines may jeopardize the safety of others.

“We need to get herd immunity to protect those who are not vaccinated,” he said. “They are delaying the safety of all of us. We hear everyone say that deciding to get vaccinated is an individual choice, but there are two calculations for that choice. We. Responsibility to protect the community. “

Herd immunity is a difficult point for the disease to spread because a sufficient number of people in the area are protected from infection. Immunized people are already ill or vaccinated. Unvaccinated individuals (newborns, people with chronic illnesses, people who refuse vaccines, etc.) are protected by communities that have achieved herd immunity.

The proportion of the population that must develop resistance to establish herd immunity depends on how easily the disease spreads.

For example, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, herd immunity against highly contagious measles requires about 95% of the population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% is protected by the fact that it only spreads to those who raise their sleeves and fire.

The CDC said more research is needed to identify the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19, but Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, recently said. CNBC To reach “some degree of social protection that the virus has no real place to go”, “you will need somewhere between 70, 75, and perhaps 80% of the vaccinated population.” ..He said later New York Times, 70% to 90% immunity may be required to stop the virus.

It is not possible to know for sure whether there is sufficient voluntary vaccine acceptance to reach herd immunity, but some experts have widespread immunity between summer and winter in the United States. I presume that there is a possibility. For some countries around the world, that’s years away. Until that is achieved, unvaccinated individuals will remain unprotected.

“If you get 80% immunity, you can’t stop the spread of the virus, but you can probably slow it down,” he said. Dr. Paul OffitHe is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-inventor of the rotavirus vaccine. “If people cannot get that 80% immunity because they are not vaccinated, this country must make a decision: do you want to mandate a vaccine?”

Vaccine rollout in the United States is accelerating, with President Joe Biden saying that as of May 1, all individuals over the age of 16 will be eligible for the vaccine.

Despite the promotion of vaccination, the supply of vaccines remains limited and conversations focus on those who want but cannot get the vaccine. As supply increases in the coming weeks and months, the conversation shifts to those who can get the vaccine but refuse it.

“For now, I don’t know who refuses the vaccine,” said Ofit. “Currently, we don’t have enough vaccines. In the summer, there will be more vaccines available to everyone who wants them. Then what are you going to find? So some percentage of people aren’t going to get the vaccine. “

We don’t know exactly how many people will refuse the vaccine, but there are clues that qualified people are refusing the vaccine.

According to Ofit, 1% to 2% of the US population rejects all vaccines and 10% to 20% skips certain vaccines.

Opinion polls show that acceptance of COVID vaccines has shifted up and down in the process of deployment.

January Survey According to the San Francisco-based Kaiser Foundation, three in ten healthcare workers were hesitant to get the COVID vaccine. Hesitation was the lowest among people over the age of 65.

In mid-February, 7 out of 10 adults in the United States (69%) said Pew Research Center Survey They will definitely or probably get the coronavirus vaccine. The study also found that Americans over the age of 65 were more likely to be vaccinated than younger ones.

Multiple poll Republicans have shown to be more skeptical of vaccines.so CBS News Poll, 33% of Republicans said they would not be vaccinated, while 10% of Democrats said they would skip vaccinations.

But only time knows exactly who will skip the vaccine, and Ofit said he wouldn’t know what would happen to unvaccinated people until winter.

“The weather is getting better and more people are being vaccinated,” he said. “We will reach a time when we feel better in the summer. When it gets cold this winter and everyone comes back in, we will see if you have vaccinated enough population to stop the spread. Probably … “