Why is the number of COVID-19 cases in India soaring?

The number of active COVID-19 cases is currently skyrocketing in India. But why does the case burn so rapidly? Earlier this year, the virus graph showed a decline in the number of cases, but the country has witnessed a new surge for more than a month now. There is no clear answer, but top scientists say that the complex interactions of mutant strains, the highly vulnerable population make by-elections and other public events more vulnerable, and the decline in security guards is the main factor. Say it’s the cause. Read again- “Don’t escape”: Arvind Kejriwal warns of the status of COVID-19.

Country COVID status

India’s COVID aggregate rose to 1,32,05,926 (1.32 chlores, 13.2 million) with a record surge. Union Ministry of Health said Saturday at 1,45,384, which, many say, is the second wave, which is a strong surge over the first wave. And it’s not clear why the numbers are growing so rapidly, just as there was no answer to why there were slides earlier this year. Read again- Complete list of COVID-19 restrictions in Delhi: As coronavirus cases surge, the government issues new guidelines

What led to an increase in COVID cases in India

There are many mysteries and unknowns, but virologists Shahid Jameel and T. Jacob John agree not to obey. COVID-19 protocolIt is the responsibility of the slow movement of vaccinations, including informing people that preventive measures should be continued after being vaccinated. Jameel said the mutant-vaccine interaction over the next few months will determine the future of Covid in India and the world. Read again- Ghaziabad Noida faces an acute vaccine shortage: people withdraw from hospital amid a surge in COVID-19 cases

“The intensity of the surge also suggests that there were so many sensitive people after the first wave,” the director of the Tribedi Department of Life Sciences at Ashoka University in Haryana told the media.

The next four weeks are important — that’s why

Earlier this week, the center warned that the next four weeks would be important and that the participation of those who would help control the second wave of transmission would be crucial. NITI Aayog member (health) VK Paul said the pandemic situation had worsened, the number of cases surged, and the majority of the population was still susceptible to the virus, but gave a clear explanation as to why this was happening. Not.

According to Jameel, the fact that people were less alert and did not follow the Covid protocol after the first wave was over is “certainly one valid explanation” for the surge. “Everything that is no longer risk averse, open to pre-Covid levels and actions has exposed vulnerable people a lot. New factors are new sudden, both imported and homemade. It’s a mutant, “added a prominent virologist.

What is the reason behind the second wave?

John, a professor of virology at the Christian Medical College (CMC) in Tamil Nadu, agreed with Jameel, saying that non-compliance with the COVID-19 protocol was due to a new wave. “The resignation of security guards was led by the central government, followed by all political parties, all religious groups, and the general public. Schools and universities were opened without vaccination of all staff. Partially describes the second wave. “ John told the media.

“Everywhere the infection was on the rise, we should have imposed stricter discipline, but as the elections progressed, leaders didn’t want it. Elections during a pandemic need to be carefully planned. “I did,” a famous virologist told the media.

The second wave that spreads faster than the first wave

Scientists also agreed that mutants were another reason for the second wave, adding that India was too late to look for mutants. “The two factors came together and we were leaderless during the crisis. The speed of spread at Second wave Twice as fast as the first wave. Partly due to variants and partly due to reduced guards, “John explained.

Referencing the Ministry of Public Health briefing on March 24, James said that British variants appear in about 80% of cases in Punjab. “A new double mutant has emerged in India and has been reported in 15-20 percent of cases analyzed in Maharashtra. Further increases in this percentage clearly demonstrate its role in the Maharashtra surge. There will be, “said a virologist.

COVID Variant — Simple Timeline

In India, the first identified variants have been found in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil. In late March, the National Center for Disease Control (NCDC) announced that new variants were identified in saliva samples taken from people in Maharashtra, Delhi, and Punjab. Genome sequencing performed by the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Consortium on Genomics (INSACOG), a consortium of 10 laboratories in India, identified two important mutations in mutants called “double mutants”. It was. Explaining that British variants are known to be about 50% more infectious, Jameel said one of the two mutations in the double mutant was also found in California, USA, leading to increased infection. Said it was related.

The two experts also discussed national vaccination activities. According to John, the government started the drive too late and the vaccination results had no defined goals. “India launched a slow rollout of vaccines in the third week of January, which was the first token reward for vaccinated health care workers, even if they weren’t needed, and we’re a lot. Wasted the vaccine, “he said. “Did the vaccine company itself issue a pre-order to accelerate production last year before approval was obtained?” John asked.

How to break the COVID chain?

According to experts, there was a “lack of communication” by officials to those vaccinated about how precautions such as masks and social distance should be continued. Experts described India’s COVID-19 situation as “curious” and said India was on a daily infection reduction curve when vaccination began in mid-January. “For a variety of reasons, qualified people, including healthcare workers and front-line workers, are hesitant to get vaccinated. Expert Jameel said that people over the age of 60 will have more cases by early March. He said he did not show enough enthusiasm even though he started.

He added: It’s too low to influence. He also said there was no way to predict that young people would be affected by this surge. “Everyone over the age of 18 is eligible for vaccination in states that are experiencing a surge, and will remain eligible for vaccination in states that are not experiencing a surge. Vaccination is a balance between vaccination supply and supply. You have to take it, “said Jamesel.

Indian inoculation program for COVID-19

Pointing out that supply can be a problem, Jameel said India is capable of receiving 10 million Covishield vaccines a month and 3 million covaxins a month. “We can also increase our supply by granting an emergency use authorization to the Johnson & Johnson vaccine and the Russian Sputnik V vaccine. Both are approved in other countries and have manufacturing partners in India. “He added.

Rapid increase in COVID cases in India

According to the Ministry of Health on Saturday, the number of active cases again exceeded Rs 100,000 after about six and a half months, but the death toll from viral illness reached 1,68,436, an increase of 794. The death toll is the highest since October 18, last year.

The number of active cases on February 12 was the lowest at 1,35,926, accounting for only 1.25 percent of the total number of cases in the country.

In a recent study, scientists, including Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) Kanpur scientists, could peak an ongoing second wave by mid-April and then sharply reduce infections by the end of May. I predicted that there would be.

(There is input from the institution)

Published: April 11, 2021 11:04 am | Updated: April 11, 2021 11:14 am