Why are there almost twice as many COVID-19 deaths in Manitoba as in Saskatchewan?

Early in the first wave of the pandemic, Manitoba reported some cases appearing to its west neighbor. And Saskatchewan suffered a surge in the number of more contagious coronavirus variants long before Manitoba.

However, the number of deaths from the virus exceeded 1,000 in Manitoba earlier this week, with Saskatchewan accounting for more than half. As of Friday, 1002 COVID-19 deaths were confirmed in Manitoba, compared to 515 in Saskatchewan.

What explains the big difference in death toll?

Naseem Muhajarin, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan, said one of the main factors was the difference in experience in long-term care facilities in each state.

“Like Quebec, I think Manitoba has experienced the worst results with COVID-19 in long-term and personal care homes,” he said.

Manitoba ranks second in the number of COVID-19-related deaths per capita after Quebec.

Almost half of all deaths in Manitoba are related to long-term care facilities.by National Institute on Aging At Ryerson University, as of May 13, 486 people were killed in a care facility in Manitoba and 2,536 people were killed in 87 different facilities.

By comparison, in Saskatchewan, 116 facilities have 651 cases and 117 deaths related to long-term care facilities.

According to Muhajarin, people living in long-term care facilities are the most vulnerable in a pandemic.

“They are old and sometimes cared for in very small spaces,” he said. “And the immune system isn’t as strong as young people, as you know, and they’re more vulnerable to death, with the worst consequences.”

Population density

Another major factor is related to the amount of infections that occur in personal care homes and the difference in how the populations of the two states are distributed.

More than half of Manitoba’s population lives in Winnipeg, but Saskatchewan’s population is more dispersed. The combined population of the two major cities of Regina and Saskatoon is only 43 percent of the state’s population.

As of Friday, Winnipeg reported 25,424 of the 44,189 confirmed cases in Manitoba, and 698 deaths. There were a total of 21,522 cases and 251 deaths in Regina and Saskatoon.

According to Muhajarin, the more concentrated the population, the higher the rate of community expansion.

“If the community is very widespread, the prevalence of COVID-19 is very high in the city, affecting everywhere in the city, including the most vulnerable people, caregivers and personal people. Facility “.

To understand the difference between the results of the University of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, it is necessary to go beyond the surface similarity, says Jason Kindrachuk, a virologist at the University of Manitoba.

“Not only the total number of people living in each state, but also variables, socio-economic demographics … Certainly, look at the difference between where those populations are and which ones were hit hardest during each wave. You need to turn it, “he said. ..

Dispersion Dispersion

Another difference is the extent to which coronavirus variants (such as the B117 variant) are spread throughout the state.

The B117 variant attacked Saskatchewan, especially Regina, much earlier than Manitoba. However, although it has become the dominant stake in Manitoba, it does not extend far beyond the capital of Saskatchewan, Kindrachuk said.

“I don’t know if it’s just a matter of increasing the chances of getting infected because there are cities like Winnipeg and so many people in one area,” he said.

On Friday, the Liberal Party of Manitoba called on the state government to conduct an investigation to understand why mortality rates differ so much between the two states.

“Obviously, Manitoba has something to learn from Saskatchewan. We should learn it early,” Manitoba liberal leader Dagard Lamont said in a news release.

Kindrachuk says a study comparing the two states is worth it.

“We have to look beyond the idea of ​​pointing a finger,” he said. “Sure, we knew that care facilities and personal care homes were hit hard … but what about the other spreads we’re seeing?”

Understanding which groups were hit hardest and why Manitoba helped prepare for the next pandemic, according to Kindrachuk.