Health
Covid-19 vaccination may mean “the public health crisis is over” – expert
The UK’s “public health crisis is over”, said leading scientists, if the Covid vaccine continues to provide high protection for hospitalization despite the spread of the virus in the community. MP
Professor Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, said society needs to learn to live with Covid-19 in the future, and continuing to produce new vaccines for all variants is short-term. Suggested that it was not feasible.
It comes as an expert from Public Health England (PHE) also appeared before the Commons Science and Technology Commission, stating that the pandemic would continue for another two years.
Sir Andrew told MP that the emergence of new variants “will happen, will continue” as he urged people to continue vaccination.
He added: “But in the end, we need to return to focusing on the very important public health issues of hospitalization and death.
“And if they are cleaved, that is, if the infection is significantly cleaved by vaccine immunity from a serious disease, perhaps if a new vaccine needs to be found, new mutants need to be monitored, Live in a state where it is in our community and communicates. “
He continued. “It’s an important part we have to look at in future variants. Despite its spread to the community, its very high protection against hospitalization will end the public health crisis.
“And so far delta As long as people are vaccinated, we are in a very good position. “
Sir Andrew said that the percentage of vaccine efficacy will decrease over time for symptomatic illnesses, but the focus should be on hospitalization.
“What the virus does is evolve from immunity and is less effective against symptomatic infections,” he said.
“If you advance the clock a year or two ago, these numbers are expected to get lower and lower, because I don’t think it will happen unless the virus disappears from the planet. Surviving in a vaccinated population. Can be done.
“Focusing on effectiveness against symptomatic diseases in the future, we get angry because these numbers get lower and lower over time because the virus is the only way to survive.
“So the really important question is what does the effectiveness for hospitalization look like?”
Sir Andrew said there was still uncertainty about how future variants would behave, but suggested that regular vaccine adjustments were not “achievable.”
He told the MP: “If the goal is to stop the infection and stop the symptomatic infection, I’m pretty sure a fine-tuned vaccine will do that.
“The problem is that if you’ve fine-tuned for a delta variant, for example, you may have an omega variant, an epsilon variant, or a kappa variant, and you may need to fine-tune your vaccine on a very regular basis. ..
“And I don’t think it can be achieved during this period of so many transmissions around the world and new variants being thrown out.
“It has one major variant each year and may be updated every year if it gets into a more stable situation in the future. If you really need to do that, it’s still very original at this point. High level of protection against hospitalization, even with the version of the vaccine.
“Therefore, it is not yet clear whether hospitalization with these new variants (preventive vaccines) is necessary.”
Regarding the fall booster, Sir Andrew said at this time, “There is no evidence that a third dose is needed.” “Especially given that two doses provide a very high level of protection against hospitalization.”
He added: “So the reason you might see a third dose is whether that protection has diminished. And so far, there is no such evidence. It’s too early to do that.”
Dr. Susan Hopkins, director of strategic response for Covid-19 at the British Public Health Services (PHE), told MP that the pandemic would not end “until the whole world was able to be vaccinated.”
She continued. “And that’s actually two years away.
“Until then, variants will continue to emerge, lagging behind in trying to understand them, and reaching a stable position until they have some control over everything …. Seasonal flu.
“So we have time to go, and the world needs to be vaccinated before we reach a stable situation.”
She said that the probability of domestic transmission of the first identified delta mutant was India It was 66% higher than the Alpha variant first identified in Kent.
Dr. Hopkins said that if the Delta variant is “unmitigated” and remains diffused without any action, the reproduction number (R-value) is “greater than 5, probably up to 7.” Said that it could be.
She added: “That’s why we need to be vaccinated because it’s a clear mitigation, so people need to be careful and careful, especially in the medical setting.”
Dr. Hopkins also told the Commission that PHE estimates that 15,000 to 25,000 new infections occur daily in the United Kingdom.
She added: “You don’t need that much doubling to reach a very large number.
“But what we don’t see, or what we want to see and think we won’t see because of the vaccine, is the same number of hospitalizations.
“Therefore, far more infections will occur in the community without seeing the same effects of hospitalization.”
However, she suggested that measures are needed now to control the peak while the vaccine is being given, as too many cases can significantly increase hospital numbers.
About what can happen after July 19th set by government To lift the remaining restrictions in the UK, Dr. Hopkins said individual risks and responsibilities would be more emphasized.
She added: “I think we all need to make our own decisions, especially when it comes to wearing masks, better ventilation and the use of hand hygiene.”
Senior health care workers said that some countries rely on social responsibility, while others have legislation, adding: For those of us who regularly dress in tubes, if everyone else is asked to wear a mask due to a very close encounter that could exceed 15 minutes, we will You may feel more comfortable.
“But in more general social areas such as shops, I think it comes down to personal opinions and responsibilities rather than long-term legislation.”
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