Increasing “exponentially” in the unvaccinated UK. ITV News

Coronavirus Cases are “exponentially increasing” among unvaccinated groups in the United Kingdom, according to epidemic-following scientists.

The government-consigned study found that an increasing number of incidents were also caused by young people.

Between May 3rd and June 7th, the infection doubled. This is consistent with the increase in deltacoronavirus variants that were first detected in India and are now predominant in the United Kingdom.

According to data from approximately 110,000 cotton swab tests conducted throughout the United Kingdom between May 20 and June 7, Covid-19 cases doubled every 11 days, the highest in the northwest. The prevalence is high, with an average of 1 in 670 infected.

Experts at Imperial College London say their findings show a “quick switch” between the Alpha (Kent) variant, which first appeared in the UK in September 2020, and the Delta variant in the past few weeks. Said. 90% of all coronavirus cases.

Earlier this week, the government said Delta variants now account for 96% of all Covid cases in the United Kingdom.

But they emphasized that exponential growth is in a very different position than last fall, which caused the second wave of coronavirus infections.

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Steven Riley, a professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial and one of the authors of the study, said:

He added: “And it seems to double every 11 days.

“Obviously that’s bad news … but the important thing to point out here is that we are in a very different part of the epidemic in the UK and it is very difficult to predict the duration of the exponential stage. is.

“When I started observing exponential growth last fall and last spring, I knew that the population’s immunity was very weak, so I was far more worried in a way.

“(But now) we know that the population has a lot of immunity, thanks to vaccinations (programs).

“It has a lot of immunity, but it doesn’t interfere with exponential growth. That’s what we see here.”

Scientists suggest that findings from the React study “should help significantly reduce the overall growth of the epidemic” with the imminent expansion of the vaccine program to people over the age of 18. Said.

Research author Paul Elliott, director of the React program and chair of Imperial’s epidemiology and public health medicine, said: It is a very good protection for the elderly, where virtually everyone is double vaccinated.

“And in the younger group under the age of 65, the rate of vaccination or double vaccination is much lower, and most infections occur in the unvaccinated group.

“And the government has clearly announced that it wants to vaccinate all adults from now until July 19. I think that will make a huge difference and increase the total amount of artificial immunity.”

According to this study, published as a preprint on online servers, the majority of infections are caused by children aged 5-12 and young adults aged 18-24.

Infections in these age groups are about five times higher than those over the age of 65, the researchers said.

The data showed that the “weakened link” between infection rates and hospitalization was “well maintained” in people over the age of 65, while “trends converged below the age of 65.”

Professor Riley said: “Especially in the age group under 65, this reconvergence was seen in the patterns of hospitalization, mortality and infection.

“These patterns are consistent with the fact that two doses of vaccination are very effective.”

He added: “The rapid development to these ages, especially the first dose for those who have not taken anything, and the secondary remarks for those who have taken it once, even against all other factors. , Should effectively slow its growth. “

Secretary of Health and Social Welfare Matt Hancock “These findings highlight the harsh situation of making the difficult decision to delay Step 4 of the roadmap from the blockade.

“Currently, the number of cases is increasing, but thanks to our incredible vaccination program and an enhanced response package that includes surge testing, we have tools to control the spread of this virus. I’m waiting.

“We all need to be a little longer nervous while the vaccine is being deployed. Both to keep observing the hands, face, space and fresh air and take the best possible precautions. Please be sure to inoculate the vaccine. “