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UK general election poll tracker: Labor leads as election approaches | opinion poll

UK general election poll tracker: Labor leads as election approaches |  opinion poll

 


The next UK general election is approaching, with most analysts expecting it to be held later this year.

After 13 years in Conservative power, Keir Starmers Labor has been consistently ahead in opinion polls since early 2022.

The latest a general election can be held is January 2025. Chancellor Rishi Sunak has the power to call a general election at any time before then, but faced with the possibility of losses, experts think he will postpone the election and remain in power. Provides power for longer.

The Guardian tracks the latest polling averages from all the UK's major polling companies in the run up to election day.

Current voting intentions GB Average of polls over a rolling 10-day period showing voting intentions

Voting intentions over time The latest average of all opinion polls over a rolling 10-day period showing voting intentions in the UK.

The data the Guardian uses in the chart above does not include the Scottish National Party (SNP). In UK-wide opinion polls, the SNP vote accounts for 2-4% of the national vote share. However, its geographical concentration in Scotland means it will win more seats than other smaller parties with similar national vote shares, such as the Greens. A poll just looking at Scotland gives a much better indication of how well it will do at the next election than the national poll above.

Opinion polls are only used to predict who will win in Britain's first ever electoral system. What matters is the number of seats each party holds in parliament, which is determined by individual races in 650 districts.

How Latest Polls Affect Election Calculus' Congressional Seat Predictions

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Seat projections vary, but the ones shown above are from pollster Electoral Calculus. We conduct our own public opinion polls and also collect demographic data from those surveyed.

This data is fed into a mathematical model called a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model, which aims to estimate the association between characteristics such as age, gender, and where an individual lives and the party they will vote for. for someone.

Contrast this with data on what types of people live in different constituencies in the UK, and Electoral Calculus predicts which party will come out on top in each constituency.

How accurate is the seat projection?

In the UK's First-Past-Post system, the number of votes is not fully correlated with the seat, as the number of votes depends on voting position. Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, described the general opinion poll's outlook for the seat as a loose measure, saying Labor could be ahead by 15 points and not have a majority, or it could be 10 points ahead and not have a majority. It depends on where those votes are.

As elections approach, opinion polls become less predictive of the outcome. Another limitation in predicting seat numbers from national opinion polls is the fact that it is difficult to infer the seat numbers of the Liberal Democrats from national opinion polls. Although the Liberal Democrats' national approval ratings are much lower than those of the two major parties, they still have significant influence in certain constituencies. National opinion polls are not very informative about what will happen in Scotland, nor are they conducted more frequently.

Notes on data

This chart shows the 10-day average for each party's approval rating based on UK-wide opinion polls. This excludes Northern Ireland, which has a variety of political parties. The Guardian calculates the average support for each party from polls published over the previous 10 days on a given date. Only polling companies that are members of the British Polling Council are included.

Seat forecasts are provided each month by Electoral Calculus, which applies models to voting and demographic data to estimate how many seats each party could win. They update this forecast monthly.

Illustration by Sam Kerr. Additional research by Gabriel Smith, Emma Russell and Lily Smith.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/may/20/uk-general-election-opinion-poll-tracker-latest-labour-tories

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