UK inflation is expected to remain close to the Bank of England's 2% target.

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Inflation in the UK could approach the Bank of England's 2% target when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases its latest figures on Wednesday.

The consumer price index (CPI) in March fell 3.2% compared to the previous year, and according to a poll conducted by Reuters, inflation in April is expected to fall to 2.1%.

Pantheon Economics expects a slightly lower figure of 2%, while Capital Economics thinks it could go even lower, to 1.9%. The Bank of England's own forecast is 2.1%.

Ashley Webb, UK economist at Capital Economics, said the April CPI inflation data due out next Wednesday could prove significant if we were right in thinking that inflation had fallen below the 2.0% target for the first time in three years, down from 3.2% in March. I said I could.

This will be important in determining whether the first rate cut to 5.25% will come in June (as expected) or in August. What's more important is what happens next. Inflation is expected to fall further to 1.0% by the end of this year.

The lower figure, expected to be published on Wednesday, will put pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates from a 16-year high of 5.25%.

Central bank policymakers have raised interest rates over the past two years to tackle inflation, with a target of reaching a peak of 11.1% in 2022 before lowering them back to 2%.

The expected drop in inflation will come just days after BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent suggested UK interest rates could be cut as early as this summer.

He said in a speech Monday morning that borrowing costs would likely be lower this summer if the economy develops as expected.

The economist said the bank's nine MPCs, which vote on potential interest rate hikes, should assess how the potential persistence of wage and services inflation continues to develop.

He added: Whatever the individual members' previous statements, the MPC will continue to learn from the incoming data, and if conditions continue to develop, with the forward-looking prediction that policy should become less restrictive at some point, the bank rate could be lowered. I'll have to cut it down a bit in the summer.

Earlier this month Broadbent voted to keep interest rates at 5.25%, voting 7 to 2 for no change.

Financial markets have priced in a rate cut through August.

Food price inflation has slowed to the lowest level since October 2021, according to data released by Kantar on Tuesday.

Supermarket prices were 2.4% higher than a year ago, the 15th consecutive month of slowing from 3.2% in April, according to analysts Kantar.

Food inflation is currently 0.8 percentage points higher than the 10-year average of 1.6% from 2012 to 2021, just before prices began to rise.

Fraser McKevit, head of retail and consumer insights at Kantar, said: Grocery price inflation is gradually returning to what we consider more normal levels.

Typically, an inflation rate of around 3% is the point at which a noticeable change in consumer behavior begins to appear, with shoppers trading in cheaper items when inflation rates are above this line and vice versa when inflation rates fall.

But after nearly two and a half years of rapid inflation, it may take a little longer for shoppers to unwind the habits they've learned to help them manage the cost-of-living crisis.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-inflation-bank-of-england-b2548658.html The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

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