A story of contrasting campaigns as British political parties step out on day one

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Good morning. And left! Rishi Sunak essentially surprised the entire Conservative Party and, uh, many people in Westminster, including the author of this newsletter, by calling an election earlier than necessary. Britain is due to go to the polls on July 4th and, barring something unexpected, Labor will go into government.

In reality, this means that the Prime Minister's party is mainly holding a surprise election. The opposition always knew that one of the many things they had no control over and could not predict was when Sunak decided to leave the country. They have been laying the electoral groundwork for a long time.

In a way, Labor has finished electing marginal seats, leaving only vacancies left in seats the party doesn't need to win or already holds. The latter is split and shared between Labour's power brokers. Luckily, the Liberal Democrats completed their selection in Sutton and Cheam, the trickiest of their London targets, and likewise got back-to-back ducks in terms of selection.

The Conservatives are not ready, and the July polls have surprised and indeed appalled some Tory MPs. They felt they were denied the expected time to decide what to do next.

But there are some important advantages to going now rather than waiting until later. If the cost of compensating victims of infected blood and the Post Office scandal has not already been linked to Sunak's pledge to spend 2.5% of GDP on defense by 2030, I recommend reading this excellent Robert Shrimsley column on both. Very unpleasant.

This is before accounting for public services that most people use, such as hospitals and schools, and those that only a few people touch, such as prisons and police. This is an important part of ensuring that we feel safe and that the Government is sticking to its end of the bargain. All in all, a lot of money will have to be found to keep Sunak's promises.

As George Parker explained in his piece on the economic factors underlying yesterday's announcement, Jeremy Hunt has told colleagues that public finances will not be in good enough shape to push for a 2p cut in national insurance. pointed out.

There is also the added political advantage that the Reform Party, which fielded only 323 parliamentary candidates in local elections, is extremely unlikely to field 632 candidates across the UK. This morning, Reform Party leader Nigel Farage said he would not stand in the election. The Conservatives would be better off not facing a party that could steal votes on the right flank, and numerous parties doing so on the left. As Ben Ansell writes in his Substack, this is the biggest political dividend the Prime Minister can reap from his July visit.

However, the Conservative Party failed to meet a reform candidate after suffering an overwhelming defeat in the local elections earlier this month. It was still incredibly bad. More importantly, the machine and the Prime Minister remain in place.

This newsletter contains much more about the party's strategy, policy programmes, how this election is going and what we will cover over the next six weeks. If you have specific questions, please email us and keep sending us photos of campaign-related materials that we can see on your social media and in your mailbox. For now, here are some thoughts on how Britain's three political parties have handled the first day of the election campaign.

Inside Politics is edited by Georgina Quach. Read previous versions of our newsletter here. Send your gossip, thoughts and feedback to [email protected].

D:railing

Rishi Sunak launched his election campaign in pouring rain. Protesters in Westminster were playing music that at times made him almost inaudible. One song with a particularly playful and dramatic touch was the 1997 New Labors anthem D:Reams Things Can Only Get Better.

I didn't like the sight of him on the 10 o'clock BBC news, so wet that he looked like he was wearing a leather suit. He had poor audio quality. Last night's radio clips were similarly lacking in quality and it wasn't even clear which clip the Prime Minister had hoped to get. I found this out by reading a brilliant and entertaining article about how Sunak surprised Westminster with his summer election acumen by still wearing rain-soaked trousers at a rally at the ExCeL Center in London.

I'm not saying these things matter in elections. But a campaign that makes sure the candidate isn't wearing wet clothes, soaking wet from the TV or having his voice drained by the protesters who have roamed Westminster for the past eight years has little chance of success. Unless you sharpen it pretty quickly, finish stronger than you started.

Shortly after Sunak's speech, Labor released a slick video. The most recent version was recorded relatively recently, but has been re-recorded and refined over time. What is the message that Labor has been pushing for some time on what we want? Non-threatening change! When we want it? At a pace that won't scare Central England! Starmer appeared in person in front of two Union Jack flags indoors. The message has the subtlety of an atomic bomb, but a political message should not be subtle. (A good rule of thumb for this election is that the more this newsletter explains what a party is trying to convey, the worse that party's campaign will be.)

The Liberal Democrats also fared well thanks to the genius of Ed Davey's associates. They thought they should go to Surrey anyway, where the party hopes to win many seats even if the election is not held today. The result was a news hit that the party itself couldn't have written better. Davey wore a cool Barbour jacket and talked about being the only lever the Liberal Democrats could pull if they wanted to defeat the party, and he looked every bit as if he belonged in Surrey. Conservatives in the area.

Let's be honest, the party that seemed to be campaigning for this election called it. Tories are right to be worried, given that the Conservatives face an uphill climb at this election, but at this stage the steps taken by Labor and Liberal Democrats seem justified.

Now try this

The UK's upcoming election means that the quality and breadth of the proposals presented at the bottom of this newsletter will decline dramatically. In previous elections, you should expect things like quick and easy vegetarian Italian recipes, a dozen good restaurants in surrounding constituencies that don't treat diners alone like lepers, and the comfort of watching children's TV because you're too stupid to do anything else with your dinnertime. I suggested doing so.

That said, I love elections. I always think of my South African grandfather, a Cape Malay who never voted in a democratic election. He lost his right to vote shortly after his grandmother arrived here in the 1960s. What we get to do in July is something beautiful and rare. On the subject of South Africa, I really enjoyed Alec Russell's recent essay on the life and work of Cyril Ramaphosa and his final election campaign.

Following the upcoming European Parliament elections, a number of top journalists and experts will look at what this means for the EU in a webinar on 12 June. FT subscribers can register here and send questions to the panel.

Top news of the day

Starmer promises calm | Labor leader Keir Starmer said he had changed the party and now wanted to change the country and return Britain to serving working people. We will stop the chaos, Starmer added. A vote for Labor is a vote for economic and political stability.

Rishi of Hope | Refuting claims that Britain's economic growth has been disastrous compared to the US over the long term, Rishi Sunak pointed to gangbuster growth in the first quarter of this year. The UK's GDP grew 0.6% in the first quarter, while the US grew 0.4%. However, in six of the last seven quarters, quarterly growth in the United States has surpassed that in the United Kingdom.

too trusting | Paula Vennells has denied there was a Post Office conspiracy to hide information about flaws in the Horizon system, as she tearfully apologized for the pain her scandal has caused.

Here is a live updated UK opinion poll from the Financial Times, combining voting intention surveys published by major UK opinion pollsters. Visit the FT Polling page to learn about our methodology and explore polling data by demographics, including age, gender, region and more.

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