Why public opinion doesn't match reality

The far-right violence that has swept across England and Northern Ireland in recent weeks has intensified political debate over immigration and its impact on the UK economy and society.

While opinion polls show growing public concern about legal and illegal immigration, academic analysis of the impact of immigration on wages, crime, and public services points to a gap between perception and reality.

Public concern about immigration grows, but opinions are divided

Concerns about immigration among British voters have returned to 2016 levels, when the Brexit referendum and the 2015 European migration crisis triggered by the Syrian civil war pushed immigration to the top of the news.

But analysis of the polling data reveals an important nuance. For the first time, Conservative voters’ concerns differed significantly from those of Labour voters. This shift coincided with the previous Conservative government’s focus on small boat crossings by migrants, including the slogan “stop the boats” and the policy of handling asylum seekers in Rwanda.

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Despite recent concerns, the UK remains one of the most receptive countries to immigration. According to the 2022 World Values ​​Survey, around 55% of Britons said immigration had a positive impact on their country’s development, more than double the share of French and Germans.

Illegal immigration makes up only a very small proportion of UK immigration.

The recent political debate on immigration has focused on small boat crossings. But even in 2022, when a record 45,755 people arrived via this route, that figure was only a fraction of the 1.3 million who entered the UK via organised visa channels.

Last year, only one in 12 migrants who came to the UK from outside the EU sought asylum.

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So the majority of people moving to the UK are not claiming asylum, but rather people who have purchased visas to work and study under the UK's post-Brexit points-based immigration system.

Nevertheless, government spending on the asylum system has increased dramatically, reaching a record $4 billion in the year to March 2023, the latest year for which data is available, up from $630 million in the 12 months to March 2018.

That's about 0.3 percent of annual government spending, which amounts to about $1.2 trillion.

Immigrants commit crimes at the same rate as natives

The rioters have linked the recent surge in mobility to a rise in violent crime and general disorder on Britain's streets, as they have expressed a desire to take back the streets over the past two weeks.

But Office for National Statistics crime survey figures show that by 2023, violent crime rates will have fallen to their lowest level in 40 years, with incidents per 1,000 people in England and Wales just a fifth of what they were at their peak in 1995.

According to Brian Bell, professor of economics at King's College London, academic studies in the UK, the US and Italy have found no link between increased immigration and increased crime, with immigrants having the same crime rates as native-born people.

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But Bell said a 2013 study found that EU immigration since 2004 had had no effect on overall crime rates, and while there was evidence of slightly higher property crime, theft and break-ins among asylum seekers, these were similar to those reported by disadvantaged natives.

He said that given the small refugee population, he estimated that the property crime rate would have been 0.1 percentage point higher than it otherwise would have been.

Asylum seekers are more likely to be poor because they cannot earn an income, but natives in such situations commit more property crimes than average. Asylum seekers have no effect on violent crime rates, Bell added. Bell is also the chair of the independent Immigration Advisory Council, which advises the government.

Immigration grows the economy but has little effect on jobs and wages.

According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government's financial watchdog, net migration increases the size of the economy. But the impact on GDP per capita is small and uncertain, depending on the skills of immigrants and the proportion of those who work or are dependents in the UK.

From the government's perspective, a larger overall economy means public sector net debt as a share of GDP will fall, which will give the finance minister more room to maneuver on budget day.

Despite the popular belief that reducing immigration would boost wages, a number of academic studies have found no evidence that immigration has a significant impact on the wages or employment of native-born workers, according to the Migration Observatory at Oxford University.

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Research shows that immigration has hit low-paid workers harder than high-paid workers, but the overall impact has been small. A study of immigration to the UK by the Nuffield Foundation think tank from 1994 to 2016 found that British native-born workers in the bottom 20% of the labour market saw their hourly wages fall by around 0.5p a year, while the top 10% saw their hourly wages rise by 1.7p.

Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, said: “For example, truck drivers’ wages have gone up since Brexit for a number of reasons. But if you look at the accommodation and food services sector, you don’t see that in the aggregate data, despite the headlines suggesting that wages have gone up.”

Immigrants are net contributors to the NHS.

An Ipsos poll last month found that around 70% of Britons believe immigration puts extra pressure on the NHS, while 32% believe immigrants use the NHS more than British-born people.

However, a 2018 MAC report assessing the impact of EU immigration found that new immigrants contributed far more to health services and social welfare than they consumed.

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Migrants who arrive legally are not only liable for taxes and an annual NHS surcharge of £1,035, but are also statistically less likely to use healthcare as they are younger.

Immigration is also essential to fill the NHS workforce, which had 100,658 vacancies in secondary care in England as of March, according to the British Medical Association. Official data show that around 20% of UK doctors and 33% of nurses are from overseas.

Danny Mortimer, chief executive of NHS Employers, which represents health service leaders, said NHS staff comprised more than 200 different nationalities, some of whom had suffered completely unacceptable racist attacks in recent weeks.

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