Harris, Trump and demographics in the US elections DW 10/19/2024

In 2024, Election Day in the United States falls on November 5, the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. According to the think tank Bipartisan Policy Center, about 244 million U.S. citizens over the age of 18 are eligible to vote, although some states strip that right from people convicted of crimes.

The United States has seen an increase in voter turnout in recent years. In 2016, only about 59% of eligible voters cast ballots in the presidential election. In 2020, that figure stood at 66%, the highest rate in any national election since 1900, according to the Pew Research Center.

Democrats or Republicans? On November 5, millions of American voters will have a choice to make. Image: imago/UIG US election race

Race is a key factor in American electoral politics. And there are wide disparities between different races when it comes to the number of people showing up to vote: in the 2020 election, nearly 71% of white voters cast ballots, compared to just 58.4% of non-white voters. according to the Brennan Center for Justice Law and Policy Institute. This election saw 62.6% of Black American voters, 53.7% of Latino voters, and 59.7% of Asian American voters cast ballots.

Over the years, the Brennan Center reports, several states have made it more difficult to register to vote, particularly those that were governed by Republicans and had seen increases in non-white voter turnout over the years. previous years.

Traditionally, Black Americans are more likely to vote Democratic, and 2020 was no exception: in total, 87% of Black voters voted for the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris Democratic ticket. The majority of white voters in the 2020 election, 58%, voted for Republican Donald Trump and his running mate Mike Pence, while 65% of Latino voters and 61% of Asian American voters voted for Biden, according to the exit polls. .

Although it is unclear whether these groups will vote for the same party again in this presidential election, we do know that there will be more eligible Black voters in 2024 than there were in 2020 According to the Pew Research Center, their numbers will be at an estimated 34.4 million, an increase of 7% from 2020. This also means that a larger share of the American electorate is black. In 2000, 12.1% of all eligible American voters were black. In the 2024 election, the Pew Research Center projects that 14% of eligible voters will be black.

It remains to be seen whether this will be an advantage for Kamala Harris, who was elected as the Democratic presidential nominee after Biden dropped out. As mentioned above, turnout among black voters is lower than that of white voters. And the percentage of black voters voting for the Democratic candidate has declined slightly since 2012, when Barack Obama last ran. The fact that Harris, who is Black and South Asian American (her father is Jamaican American, her mother was Indian-American; both came to the United States as young adults) was on the ticket in 2020 could not reverse this trend. It's not yet clear whether that will make a difference this time around, when she's running for president, not just vice president.

Kamala Harris courts black voters as campaign gets underway

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Age of American voters

From 2016 to 2020, there was a significant increase in voter turnout among young voters, aged 18 to 29. In 2016, about 39% of them voted, while in 2020 that figure rose to 50%, according to the Center. for information and research on civic learning and engagement at Tufts University in Massachusetts.

And what is the place of young voters on the political spectrum? Exit polls after the 2020 election showed that 60% of all young voters voted for Biden, and only 36% for Trump. The majority of voters aged 30 to 44 also voted for Biden, although their majority was smaller, at 52%. Trump won the majority of voters (62%) aged 65 and older.

In 2023, 66% of registered U.S. voters ages 18 to 24 identified as Democrats or Democratic-leaning, as did 64% of voters ages 25 to 29. Among voters in their thirties, the majority is slimmer: in total, 55% associate themselves with Democrats, while 42% say they are Republicans or of Republican leaning. Republicans hold the largest majority of voters over 80: 58% of them associated with Republicans and only 39% with Democrats, according to the Pew Research Center.

Will young Americans be as enthusiastically engaged in the 2024 elections as these young voters were in the 2018 midterm elections? Image: Picture Alliance/ZUMAPRESS Female Biden and Trump voters

Since 1980, women have consistently voted in higher proportions than men in presidential elections. In 2020, 68.4% of women eligible to vote did so, compared to 65% of men, according to the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) at Rutgers University in New Jersey.

The CAWP also states that “in every presidential election since 1996, a majority of women have preferred the Democratic candidate.”

However, there are differences between white women and those of other ethnicities. Since the 2000 election, the majority of white women have voted for the Republican candidate in U.S. presidential elections, while a large majority of black, Latina, and Asian women have voted for the Democratic candidate for the entire time this information has been collected. .

In the 2020 election, 57% of women overall voted for Biden and 42% for Trump (53% of men voted for Trump and 45% of men for Biden.) Among white women, only 44% voted for Biden in 2020 and 55% for Trump, according to CAWP. The situation is totally different for black women. Ninety percent of them voted for Biden in 2020 and only 9% for Trump.

In a poll released in June 2024, researchers from the US charity KFF, formerly the Kaiser Family Foundation, found that among female voters, more Biden supporters appeared to be turning away from their candidate than among Trump supporters.

Among women who voted for Biden in 2020, 83% said they would do the same in the next election. Seven percent said they would vote for Trump this time and 10 percent said they would vote for someone else or not at all.

Trump has passionate supporters, many of them women. Image: Wilfredo Lee/AP Photo/picture alliance

In contrast, among women who voted for Trump, 92% said they would vote for him again in the 2024 election, and none said they would vote for Biden instead. Seven percent said they would vote for someone else or not at all.

But Biden is of course no longer on the ballot. Whether Harris can win back female voters whose support Biden lost is one of the big questions that will be answered once November 5 arrives.

Edited by: Timothy Jones

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