The races that will decide control of Congress

BBC

While the focus is on the race for the White House, on November 5, American voters will also determine who controls each chamber of Congress.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 seats in the Senate will be up for grabs.

Republicans currently hold a majority in the House, while Democrats control the Senate, both by slim margins.

Polls suggest the two parties could trade control of each chamber, with Democrats winning back the House and Republicans taking back the Senate.

The two parties are vying for a handful of seats that could make the difference in their power in Washington in the new year.

Here's a guide to the crucial contests to watch out for.

Montana's Jon Tester faces his toughest test

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Jon Tester of Montana seeks re-election to a fourth term in the Senate

While Republicans are all but assured of winning an open seat in West Virginia, Montana could cement the party's path to a Senate majority — if it can oust three-term Democrat Jon Tester.

Tester, 68, is a third-generation farmer, twice re-elected on the promise of being an independent voice willing to go against his own party. But critics say he was the deciding vote for much of President Joe Biden's agenda and, as Montana has shifted to the right, his days in Washington could be numbered.

His opponent, Tim Sheehy, is a former Navy Seal who ran an aerial firefighting company that helped put out wildfires across the state. But the political novice has faced scrutiny over his background, including lying that the bullet in his arm was a wound from Afghanistan when he had actually accidentally shot himself during 'a hike.

Sheehy, 38, has largely avoided the media, but his embrace of Donald Trump might be enough to get him over the finish line.

Is Ted Cruz's time up in Texas?

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Ted Cruz of Texas seeks re-election to a third Senate term

Democratic efforts to oust Sen. Ted Cruz six years ago failed by some 200,000 votes. Now they have another chance to defeat the Texas senator – with a new challenger.

Colin Allred, 41, is a former National Football League (NFL) player turned civil rights attorney. He served in the Barack Obama administration and currently serves in the United States House of Representatives. He attacked Cruz for vacationing in Mexico during a historic winter storm in 2021 and for voting to overturn Donald Trump's 2020 election defeat.

Reproductive rights and Texas' near-total ban on abortion are also shaping the race, with Kamala Harris recently making a rare campaign trip to the state alongside Houston native Beyonc.

Cruz, meanwhile, has pledged to keep Texas, Texas, and extend Democrats' three-decade statewide lockout.

Wisconsin's Tammy Baldwin in close race

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Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin seeks re-election to a third term in the Senate

Two months ago, Tammy Baldwin was poised for re-election with a comfortable lead in the polls, money in the bank and Kamala Harris reinvigorating the Democratic ticket. But the very first openly gay American senator has seen her lead in the polls evaporate.

Republican Eric Hovde, 60, invested $20 million (15 million) of his own fortune in the contest, endeared himself to Trump voters by addressing the culture wars and blanketed the airwaves with negative ads linking Baldwin, 62, to inflation and illegal immigration.

If elected, the former banking executive and real estate mogul would top the Senate's rich list and Democrats have portrayed him as making an opportunistic candidacy despite his inability to identify with the working class Wisconsin.

But, in this crucial swing state, the influx of Republican cash hurts both Baldwin and Harris — and a double defeat here could be a major blow to Democrats.

Will Ohio's Sherrod Brown defy the odds again?

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Ohio's Sherrod Brown seeks re-election to fourth Senate term

As with Jon Tester in Montana, the terrain has changed during Sen. Sherrod Brown's three terms representing Ohio and he is currently the only Democrat to hold statewide elected office.

But Brown, 71, has long been supported by Ohio's union and blue-collar workers, and he has remained close to that voting bloc — which includes many Trump supporters — in his campaign for re-election.

Bernie Moreno, a Colombian immigrant and former auto sales magnate, is opposing him in what is now considered the costliest Senate race in U.S. history. He describes the veteran progressive lawmaker as too liberal for Ohio.

The 57-year-old inadvertently centered abortion access as a race-defining issue when he joked in September that it was a little crazy that older women cared about the issue . Polls suggest this hurts Moreno with suburban women.

The path to a majority in the House runs through New York

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New York Republicans Mike Lawler (left), Anthony D'Esposito (center) and Nick LaLota (right) are all seeking re-election to a second term in the House.

A half-dozen suburban districts in New York state will likely hold the key to control of the U.S. House of Representatives next year.

Five of those districts are held by first-term Republicans, who scored surprise victories in the 2022 midterm elections due to voters' concerns about crime, inflation and immigration.

But after facing criticism over party infighting and election infrastructure, Democratic leaders have this time invested millions in their New York operation and are counting on strong turnout in the presidential election next year.

Their candidates, however, had to find a balance between proposing solutions and recognizing both the rising cost of living and the high number of undocumented migrants which has cost taxpayers $2.4 billion (1.8 billion) this year. year.

Democrats need just four seats to regain a majority in the House. If they win, Hakeem Jeffries will become the first black Speaker of the House of Representatives in history – and the first from New York since 1869.

Are the “Blue Dog” House Democrats biting?

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Jared Golden (left) of Maine, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (center) of Washington state and Mary Peltola (right) of Alaska are Democrats seeking re-election to the House.

Under Joe Biden's administration, no Democrat has voted more out of step with their party leader than the so-called Blue Dogs — a group of 11 populist, pro-labor members of the House.

From Jared Golden in Maine and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington state to Henry Cuellar in Texas and Mary Peltola in Alaska, this group of working-class lawmakers has steadily strayed from the party's priorities.

They have worked across the aisle to build bipartisan consensus, including helping craft a package earlier this year to provide funding for border security as well as aid to Ukraine and Israel. Senate Republicans rejected the bill after coming under pressure from Donald Trump.

Democrats have lacked support in rural America for years, but the success of the Blue Dogs' re-election bids could prove crucial for the party.

Nebraska's Don Bacon Faces Fire

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Nebraska's Don Bacon seeks re-election to a fifth term in the House

Don Bacon, 61, a four-term congressman from Nebraska, is part of a dying breed of moderate Republicans on Capitol Hill.

Donald Trump campaigned to replace Bacon two years ago.

But in May, he defeated a primary opponent who claimed he didn't support Trump enough. And although Bacon now has Trump's support, he supported Nikki Haley in the presidential primary race.

Bacons' district is also of outsized importance in the presidential race. Unlike most other states, Nebraska divides its Electoral College votes by congressional district. Trump won the district in 2016, but lost it in 2020 and polls suggest he will lose it again this year.

State Sen. Tony Vargas, 40, faces Bacon in a rematch of their 2022 contest. New districts and an influx of new voters since then, along with millions of dollars in Democratic spending, all favor Vargas – and Kamala Harris.

Redrawn Alabama district becomes race to watch

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Democrat Shomari Figures is expected to win the House election in a newly redrawn district in Alabama.

The fight to represent Alabama's 2nd Congressional District is particularly interesting.

The district has been dominated by Republicans for the past six decades, but the U.S. Supreme Court ordered it redrawn last year. In its ruling, the nation's highest court concluded that the Southern states' congressional map was likely drawn in a discriminatory manner, concentrating black voters in just one of its seven districts.

The redrawn district is now majority black, and it has set the stage for a highly competitive race between two lawyers and political newcomers — Democrat Shomari Figures and Republican Caroleene Dobson.

Polls currently suggest that numbers have the edge.

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