With less than two days until the vote, the impasse persists in the US presidential election

This combination of stock photos shows Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate. | Photo credit: AP

With less than two days until the crucial presidential election in the United States, leading pollsters in the country have called the race a deadlock. In opinion polls conducted nationally and most recently, Vice President and Democrat Kamala Harris narrowly leads former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump by a single percentage point (48.5% to 47 .6% on average, according to pollster Nate Silver). These polls include those from NBC News and Emerson College projecting a 49-49% tie nationally, with Ipsos giving Ms. Harris a three-point lead (49-46%) and AtlasIntel a two-point lead ( 50 to 48%). ) to Mr. Trump. But the margins were even narrower in the seven battleground states that could decide the winner of the electoral college and therefore the next president.

The New York Times-Siena Polls, which enjoy one of the highest ratings on polling analysis site 538.com, released a new set of polls that show Mr. Trump leading Ms. Harris in Arizona (49 % versus 45%). the state wins by 11 electoral votes) just beyond the margin of error of about 3 percentage points. But in the other six states, Ms Harris was slightly ahead in four (Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia) and tied with Mr Trump in Pennsylvania, which won 19 electoral votes, and Michigan. The vote differences in each of these six states between the two candidates were well within the margin of error, suggesting that a marginal correction could mean a decisive victory for either candidate.

While Ms. Harris's numbers will remain encouraging given that Mr. Trump held a significant advantage in those states over President Joe Biden before he withdrew from the race, the tight margins in the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will give his campaign a lot of discomfort. These states are also called Rust Belt due to their status as former manufacturing and industrial hubs and are currently experiencing relative urban decline.

For Ms. Harris to obtain a majority in the electoral college, 270 votes out of 538, the clear path will simply be to maintain these Blue Wall states, even if she loses elsewhere. But a setback in the Rust Belt will force him to outperform Mr. Trump in the Sun Belt, warm/subtropical and population-growing states like Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, the last of which was won by Mr. . Trump in 2020.

A draw

The NYT-Siena polls released Sunday, the latest in a series of such polls conducted recently, showed Ms. Harris managing to keep Sun Belt states competitive, but Mr. Trump doing the same in the Rust Belt. This meant the election was too close to call. Other highly rated pollsters, like AtlasIntel, also indicated the race was close in swing states, while giving Mr. Trump a slight edge. Poll aggregators such as statistician Nate Silver and 538.com predicted the election would be a tie, with both candidates having a nearly 50 percent chance of winning.

Opinion polls conducted in the run-up to the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections predicted comfortable margins for Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Mr. Biden, respectively, but Mr. Trump performed significantly better in the election himself, even if he didn't win. the popular vote. Many pollsters have reweighted their samples to account for more Republican respondents to correct mistakes made in previous cycles. NYT-Siena, on the other hand, has remained faithful to its method without such preponderance.

Pollsters indicated that the race between Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump was tighter in contrast to the 2020 election, largely because the Democratic advantage among racial minorities narrowed a bit, with Mr. Trump winning over some voters among these sections, especially those who are not academics. -educated. Ms Harris, however, has regained some support since Mr Biden's withdrawal while improving her standing with white voters, particularly women, with the abortion issue driving her higher support among them compared to Mr Trump.

An indication that female voters were helping Ms. Harris's chances also came in a poll conducted by a popular pollster, Ann Selzer, that found Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump, 47% to 44% in Iowa, which is widely considered a safe state for Republicans. The NYT-Siena and Iowa polls suggest that whether either candidate wins the US presidential election could come down to relative turnout in key voting segments of both parties.

Published – November 3, 2024 at 10:34 PM IST

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