Did the US election polls fail?

Getty Images

For much of the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign, polls and pundits deemed the race too close to call.

Then Donald Trump won a landslide victory over Kamala Harris, winning at least five battleground states and getting unexpectedly good results in other places.

He is now poised to become the first Republican in two decades to win the popular vote, and could take office with a Republican-controlled House and Senate at his side.

So, were the polls wrong about the close nature of the competition?

Nationally, they certainly underestimated Trump for the third election in a row.

But in battleground states like Pennsylvania, where most of the polling was focused, Trump's margin of victory was generally within striking distance of his polling performance, even if predictions were slightly lower than the final result .

The average polling error observed in these swing states was actually not that large. Yet in close campaigns, small changes can make a big difference.

Ahead of the results, media outlets including the BBC warned that despite the close race in the polls, it could end up looking like a landslide for either candidate, given the margin for error.

In some less-watched parts of the United States, polls underestimated Trump's support more significantly — a sign of some blind spots, said Michael Bailey, a professor at Georgetown University and author of the book Polling at a Crossroads.

“At first glance, in the battleground states, the polls have been a little hot for Harris but really not that bad, but when you dig deeper it's a little less impressive,” he said .

In Florida, for example, polls tracked by RealClearPolitics in the final weeks of the election gave Trump a lead of about five points. He won by a larger margin of 13.

In New Jersey, Harris is projected to win by nearly 20 percentage points, according to the two most recent polls tracked by the site. His margin was finer, closer to 10.

“Imagine if we knew this or had a better idea a month ago. I don't know if it would change the election, but it would certainly change our expectations,” Professor Bailey said.

He said pollsters this year may have bet too much that people would behave much as they did in 2020 — without having anticipated the extent of the swing among Latino and young voters toward Trump .

“These models that assume so much that they're going to repeat themselves… are a disaster when there's a big change,” he said.

But pollster Nate Silver, founder of the poll analysis site 538, said there were signs of peril for those looking.

Writing about the election results, he cited a poll taken last month in New York that indicated Trump was making major inroads in the traditional Democratic stronghold.

“This is a problem the party should have been prepared for, as there was ample evidence of this problem in polling and election data,” he wrote.

The debate over the polls will certainly continue in the months to come.

That's especially true in a year in which figures like Trump and his billionaire supporter Elon Musk have promoted betting markets — many of which predicted a decisive Trump victory — as a more accurate alternative.

Experts say the investigative profession faces challenges.

Survey response rates have dropped as it becomes easier for people to screen calls from unknown numbers.

This fall has also coincided with a growing distrust of the media and institutions – a characteristic that is particularly pronounced among Trump supporters and which some say has led to their underrepresentation.

Professor Bailey said the big failure of Ann Selzer's highly controversial Iowa poll – which was released days before the election and showed a three-point lead for Harris in the state – showed the risks of traditional approach.

To compensate for these problems, many of the most high-profile surveys now operate more like models, with companies weighting responses from different groups and making other assumptions about factors such as turnout.

Many pollsters have also turned to online surveys, but experts say these are known to be unreliable.

This year, voters inclined to respond to online polls were more likely to be Democrats, James Johnson of London polling firm JL Partners told the Times of London newspaper. They are “more likely to be young, more likely to be highly engaged and more likely to work from home,” he said.

Professor Bailey said pollsters needed to “move on” from random samples and get comfortable with modeling, while doing a better job testing and explaining their hypotheses.

But Professor Jon Krosnick of Stanford University said that without truly random samples, surveys would remain vulnerable to error.

Pollsters are “trying hard, but they keep trying to be too smart,” he said. “What we need to do is get back to basics and spend the time and money to do accurate polling.”

North American correspondent Anthony Zurcher makes sense of the race for the White House in his biweekly newsletter US Election Unspun. UK readers can subscribe here. Those outside the UK can register here.

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos